Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder Picks and Predictions March 5th 2025

Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder March 5th 2025

At 9:30 ET, the 4th ranked Memphis Grizzlies (38-23) will host the 1st place Oklahoma City Thunder (50-11) at the FedExForum. The Thunder are currently favored by 8 and have won 4 straight games. The over/under line is set at 250.5 points.

This Western Conference matchup can be seen on ESPN.

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Thunder vs. Grizzlies Key Information

With a 137-128 win over the Rockets on Monday, the Thunder improved to 50-11 for the season. Oklahoma City was favored by 14 points but didn’t cover the spread. The total points of 265.5 exceeded the O/U line of 228.5 by 36.5 points.

A key moment in the game was a 13-0 run by the Thunder, which extended their lead from 68-67 to 81-67. They outscored Houston 39-27 in the 3rd quarter, entering the 4th with a 102-89 lead. The Rockets made a push in the final quarter, outscoring the Thunder 39-35, but Oklahoma City held on for the win.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s 51-point performance, including 20 in the 1st quarter and 17 in the 3rd, led the Thunder to a 137-point outing against the Rockets. He hit 5 threes at 55.6%, while Jalen Williams added 24 points, connecting on 4 threes at 80%.

Oklahoma City made 17 threes, shooting 45.9% from deep and 49.5% overall. Cason Wallace contributed 10 of his 14 points in the 2nd quarter, and Luguentz Dort scored 9 of his 11 points in the 4th.

Despite giving up 128 points, the Thunder managed to secure a win over the Rockets. Oklahoma City allowed 31 points in both the 1st and 2nd quarters, but tightened up in the 3rd, giving up 27. However, they struggled in the 4th, allowing 39 points. The Rockets shot 48% from the field.

From beyond the arc, the Thunder allowed 16 threes on 45% shooting. They sent the Rockets to the line 17 times, where they hit 14 free throws. Oklahoma City grabbed 35 defensive rebounds but gave up 15 offensive boards. They also recorded 11 steals and 6 blocks.

The Grizzlies fell to 38-23 on the season after a 132-130 home loss to the Hawks on Monday. Memphis, who were -8 point favorites, not only lost the game but also failed to cover the spread. The total score of 262 points exceeded the O/U line of 250.

Memphis went on a 10-0 run early, but Atlanta responded with a 42-point 2nd quarter. The Grizzlies bounced back with a 42-31 3rd quarter, taking a 107-101 lead into the 4th, but the Hawks outscored them 31-23 in the final period to seal the win.

Desmond Bane recorded a triple-double with 35 points, 10 assists, and 10 rebounds in the Grizzlies’ 132-130 loss to the Hawks, scoring 18 points in the 3rd quarter. He also added 13 points in the 1st quarter.

Memphis shot 50.5% from the field and 39.4% from three, making 13 threes. Luke Kennard contributed 17 points, including 8 in the 4th quarter, while Vince Williams and Zach Edey each added 5 points in the final period.

The Grizzlies struggled defensively against the Hawks, giving up 132 points on 57% shooting. Their toughest stretch came in the 2nd quarter, where they allowed 42 points. Memphis also gave up 31 points in both the 3rd and 4th quarters.

From beyond the arc, the Hawks hit 13 threes at a 46% clip. The Grizzlies sent Atlanta to the line 17 times, where they made 9 free throws. Memphis finished with 26 defensive rebounds, but allowed 14 offensive boards, while adding 7 steals and 3 blocks.

Coming in as the underdogs at +8, we have the Grizzlies as the way to go on the point spread. Not only do we have them covering, but our projections show they have a good one of winning this one straight-up, if you’re looking for a higher payout on the moneyline.

As for the over/under, the the line is currently at 250.5, and our model projects the Thunder and Grizzlies to reach a combined total of 276 points. Our bet is on taking the over.

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Red-Hot Thunder Face Grizzlies Without Jaren Jackson Jr.

For the struggling Memphis Grizzlies, facing the best team in the Western Conference isn’t ideal. On Wednesday night, the Grizzlies will host the Oklahoma City Thunder, who have been nearly unstoppable and are led by MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Thunder Surging Behind Gilgeous-Alexander’s Brilliance

Oklahoma City secured its 50th win of the season on Monday, becoming the first Western Conference team to reach the milestone. The Thunder topped the Houston Rockets 137-128 behind a sensational 51-point performance from Gilgeous-Alexander. It was his fourth 50-point outing in the past six weeks, further strengthening his MVP case.

“I just think he’s got an unbelievable pace to him right now,” Thunder coach Mark Daigneault said. “He’s attacking and really hitting the gas on some plays, and then on others, he’s just letting the defense dictate his decisions. He deserves a lot of credit.”

Gilgeous-Alexander’s dominance inside the paint has been well-documented, but over the past month, he has also been shooting over 40% from three-point range. Despite his recent scoring spree, the star guard remains focused on team success.

“It’s not as exciting as the first one,” he admitted after his latest 50-point game. “I’m just getting lost in the process and having fun with it, whether it’s 50, 27, or 17. As long as we win, it’s a fun night.”

Grizzlies Dealing with Injuries and Last-Second Heartbreaks

Memphis has lost three straight games in heartbreaking fashion, with each defeat coming on a last-second shot. The latest blow came in a 132-130 loss to the Atlanta Hawks on Monday, despite a career-first triple-double from Desmond Bane (35 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists). The Grizzlies led by 13 early in the fourth quarter and were up 128-121 with four minutes remaining but failed to close out the game.

Now, they face an even bigger challenge without All-Star forward Jaren Jackson Jr., who suffered a Grade 2 ankle sprain in Monday’s loss and is considered “week to week.” Jackson leads the team in scoring (22.7 ppg) and is a defensive anchor, making his absence a significant setback.

“Is defense going to matter or not, at the end of the day?” Memphis coach Taylor Jenkins asked. “We’re just bleeding points. We scored 130, and that usually wins ballgames, but we’ve got to rally and stay together.”

The Grizzlies, who spent much of the season in second place in the Western Conference, have fallen to fourth after losing six of their last eight games. Injuries have played a role in their struggles, with Ja Morant missing the last two games due to right shoulder soreness.

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