Minnesota Timberwolves vs Golden State Warriors Picks and Predictions May 14th 2025

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Golden State Warriors May 14th 2025

At 9:30 ET, the Timberwolves (-549) will host the Warriors (+407) in a Western Conference matchup. Minnesota is favored by 11 points, and the over/under line is set at 201.5.

The Timberwolves (49-33) are on a three-game winning streak and are currently 6th in the Western Conference. Golden State (48-34) has lost three straight and is 7th in the West.

Warriors vs. Timberwolves Key Information

• Sport: NBA
• Teams: Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves
• Where: Minneapolis at Target Center
• Date: Wednesday, May 14th
• Betting Odds MIN -11, GS +407 | MIN -549 O/U 201.5

The Warriors Can Win If…

The Warriors fell to 48-34 on the season after a 117-110 home loss to the Timberwolves on Monday. Golden State entered the game as +4.5 point underdogs and failed to cover the spread. The combined score of 227 points exceeded the O/U line of 201.5 by 25.5 points.

Minnesota took control with an 11-0 run early, stretching their lead from 30-28 to 41-28. The Timberwolves dominated the 3rd quarter, outscoring the Warriors 39-17. Golden State tried to rally in the 4th, winning the quarter 33-20, but couldn’t complete the comeback.

In their 117-110 loss to the Timberwolves, the Warriors struggled from beyond the arc, hitting just 8 threes at a 29.6% clip. Overall, they shot 43.5% from the field.

Jonathan Kuminga led the way with 23 points, including 8 in both the 1st and 2nd quarters. Draymond Green and Jimmy Butler each added 14 points, with Green contributing 8 in the opening period.

The Warriors struggled defensively in the 3rd quarter, giving up 39 points, which contributed to their 117-110 loss to the Timberwolves. Overall, they allowed Minnesota to shoot 49% from the field. Golden State did manage to tighten up in the 4th quarter, holding the Timberwolves to just 20 points.

From beyond the arc, the Warriors allowed 16 threes on 47% shooting. Minnesota also went to the line 26 times, making 23 free throws. On the boards, Golden State gave up 6 offensive rebounds while recording 10 steals and 1 block.

• Across the Warriors last ten road games, the team averaged 109 points per game while allowing 104. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 7-3, while going 7-3 straight-up.
• In their last three games as the betting underdog, the Warriors have a straight up record of 0-3 and an ATS mark of 1-2.
• Over their last five games, the Warriors have an over/under record of 2-3 and are 3-2 vs. the spread.

The Timberwolves Can Win If…

The Timberwolves improved to 49-33 on the season with a 117-110 road win over the Warriors on Monday. Minnesota, favored by 4.5 points, covered the spread, and the game’s total of 227 points exceeded the 201.5-point O/U line.

Key to the win was an 11-0 run that extended Minnesota’s lead from 30-28 to 41-28. They dominated the 3rd quarter, outscoring the Warriors 39-17, and entered the 4th with a 97-77 lead. Despite being outscored 33-20 in the final period, the Timberwolves held on for the win.

Julius Randle and Anthony Edwards led the Timberwolves to a win over the Warriors, with Randle scoring 31 points and Edwards adding 30. Edwards hit 6 threes at a 54.5% rate, while Randle made 4 threes, shooting 50% from deep.

As a team, the Timberwolves connected on 16 threes, shooting 47.1% from beyond the arc and 49.4% overall. Edwards was especially effective in the 3rd quarter, scoring 16 points.

Defensively, the Timberwolves were at their best in the 3rd quarter, giving up just 17 points, which helped them secure a win despite allowing 33 points in the 4th. Overall, they allowed 110 points on 43% shooting from the Warriors.

Minnesota excelled at defending the three, holding Golden State to just 8 made threes on 29% shooting. They also recorded 9 steals and 5 blocks in the game.

• Through their last ten home contests, the Timberwolves offense has averaged 112 points per game while allowing an average of 106. Minnesota posted an overall record of 8-2 while going 6-4 ATS.
• As the betting favorite, the Timberwolves have an ATS mark of just 6-4 in their last ten games. Minnesota posted a straight up mark of 8-2 in these matchups.
• In their last three games, the Timberwolves have an over/under record of 2-1 and are 2-1 vs. the spread.

The Lean

Not only do we have the Timberwolves winning this one by a score of 129-104, but we see them covering the spread. Our pick is to grab the Timberwolves at -11.

Regarding the over/under, the current line is set at 201.5, and our model predicts the Warriors and Timberwolves to score a combined 233 points. We recommend betting on the over.

Best NBA Basketball

Handicapping Membership

Get Free Trial

Timberwolves on Brink of Eliminating Warriors Without Curry

With the Golden State Warriors hanging by a thread and the Minnesota Timberwolves poised to strike, Game 5 of the Western Conference semifinals promises to be a decisive moment in the 2025 NBA Playoffs. Minnesota leads the series 3-1 and will host the Warriors in Minneapolis with a chance to advance to the Western Conference Finals for the second consecutive year. However, Timberwolves star Anthony Edwards insists the team is staying locked in.

Anthony Edwards Leads by Example with Mature Playoff Mindset

“You can’t get comfortable,” said Edwards during a media session. His words reflect a seasoned mindset not often seen in young stars. Edwards, averaging 27.3 points per game this series, has embraced his role as both a scorer and vocal leader, urging teammates not to overlook any opportunity.

Minnesota Looks to Close Out at Home in Game 5

After winning two straight games on the road, Minnesota now returns to a roaring home crowd. Julius Randle, averaging 24.3 points in the series, emphasized the stakes: “We’ve got to take advantage of these moments.” A win Wednesday means rest, momentum, and a statement.

Golden State’s Struggles Without Stephen Curry

The Warriors’ fortunes took a nosedive following Stephen Curry’s hamstring injury in Game 1. Absent for three straight games and expected to miss Game 5, Curry’s absence has stripped the Warriors of their offensive anchor. Check The Latest NBA Picks & Predictions from The Best Expert Handicappers

Steve Kerr’s Strategic Limitations and Challenges

Warriors head coach Steve Kerr was candid: “Steph’s a guy who breaks the defense down… now every shot is more difficult.” Kerr’s system, which thrives on Curry’s off-ball movement and threat, has struggled to adapt.

Warriors’ Supporting Cast Fails to Step Up

Second-year guard Brandin Podziemski and veteran Draymond Green have been unable to fill the void. Without Curry to draw defensive attention, spacing has collapsed, leading to inefficient possessions and stagnant ball movement.

Jimmy Butler’s Mysterious Mention – Possible Mix-Up?

The article mistakenly credited Jimmy Butler, a Miami Heat player, as leading the Warriors. This is likely a confusion with Klay Thompson or Andrew Wiggins, both key scorers who have underperformed in Curry’s absence.

Julius Randle and Team Cohesion Power Minnesota

Randle’s Game 4 halftime speech rallied the Timberwolves. Down by two, the team surged in the second half. His leadership complements Edwards’ explosiveness and highlights the importance of locker room unity.

Timberwolves’ Balanced Attack Puts Pressure on Warriors

While Edwards garners headlines, Minnesota’s success is collective. Strong performances from role players like Jaden McDaniels, Mike Conley, and Karl-Anthony Towns have made double-teaming Edwards a risky strategy.

Game 4 as a Turning Point

Game 4’s comeback symbolized Minnesota’s resilience. It proved they can win close games on the road — a crucial confidence booster heading into a potential closeout scenario.

Edwards’ Praise for Teammates Highlights Team Chemistry

Despite being the face of the franchise, Edwards insists, “They are the MVP every night.” His humility resonates within a squad known for its togetherness and shared accountability.

The Coaching Battle: Finch vs. Kerr

Timberwolves coach Chris Finch has outmaneuvered Kerr by maximizing depth and controlling tempo. Kerr, meanwhile, has struggled to spark bench production and defensive consistency.

What Warriors Must Do to Force Game 6

Golden State must find new offensive triggers. That includes better shot creation from Jordan Poole, more efficient spacing, and defensive intensity for 48 full minutes.

Timberwolves’ Path to Western Conference Finals

If they advance, Minnesota would likely face a strong opponent in the Denver Nuggets or Phoenix Suns. Regardless, they’re establishing themselves as serious title contenders.

External Reactions and Media Commentary

Sports analysts have praised the Timberwolves’ poise, with ESPN’s Zach Lowe noting their “depth, discipline, and dogged defense.” Fan forums echo the belief that this is Minnesota’s best playoff team in decades.

Conclusion: Minnesota’s Moment of Truth

Game 5 offers Minnesota a golden opportunity — not just to eliminate the Warriors, but to make a statement to the entire league. With Anthony Edwards leading by example, backed by a tight-knit team and a savvy coach, the Timberwolves are knocking loudly on the door of the Western Conference Finals.