Cal vs Cal State Bakersfield Betting Preview
California opens its season Monday night in Berkeley against Cal State Bakersfield, aiming to keep its rebuild on track under coach Mark Madsen. The former Stanford standout has lifted the Golden Bears from three wins in 2022-23 to 14 last season, relying heavily on the transfer portal.
Once again, the Bears will feature a new mix of players after top scorers Andrej Stojakovic and Jeremiah Wilkinson transferred out. Madsen brought in nine transfers and four freshmen to complement returners DJ Campbell, Rytis Petraitis, and Lee Dort. His goal this year is continuity and stability, a contrast to Cal’s complete roster resets in previous seasons.
Cal beat Bakersfield 86-73 last November, and the Golden Bears will try to repeat that effort at Haas Pavilion. The Roadrunners, now led by new coach Mike Scott, lost longtime coach Rod Barnes in September. Scott inherits a reshuffled group that returns guard CJ Hardy, who hopes to guide Bakersfield back into Big West contention.
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Line Movement and Odds
Cal opened around a 13-point favorite, with the total near 145. Early money leaned toward the Bears, while some sharp bettors grabbed Bakersfield plus the points. Cal’s moneyline has been heavily tilted to the home side, while public handle continues to track toward the favorite.
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Matchup Breakdown
California Golden Bears:
Madsen’s roster churn continues, but he’s starting to build core retention. Cal ranked middle-of-the-pack in offensive efficiency last season and looks stronger defensively after adding several experienced transfers. The Bears’ backcourt now features multiple shooters who can stretch the floor, something they lacked a year ago. Expect Cal to push tempo early and use its depth to wear down Bakersfield.
Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners:
The Roadrunners finished 14-19 last season and went 3-11 on the road. Their defense can be scrappy, but offensive consistency remains an issue. Hardy’s return provides leadership, though they’ll need production from several new faces to keep up with Cal’s pace. The frontcourt must hold its own against Cal’s physicality inside.
For bettors looking to understand matchup metrics and pace-adjusted stats, the Bettors Handbook breaks down advanced categories like tempo and defensive efficiency.
Injuries and Conditions
California Golden Bears
- No major active injuries reported entering the opener.
- Rotations remain fluid as new players settle into roles.
Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners
- Expected to have full availability.
- Coach Scott noted depth at guard as an early strength.
Indoor venue: Haas Pavilion (Berkeley, CA) — no weather concerns.
Best Bets and Prediction
Cal went 7-3 ATS in nonconference play last season, while Bakersfield struggled away from home. The Bears’ improved depth and home-court advantage should show late.
Projected Score: Cal 78, Bakersfield 63
Best Bet: Cal -13
Secondary Lean: Under 145
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