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Mississippi State vs North Alabama Week 1 Betting Preview
Mississippi State opens its season Wednesday in Starkville against a veteran North Alabama squad that shared the ASUN regular-season title. Coach Chris Jans returns four players and 11 newcomers as the Bulldogs search for identity early. Junior guard Josh Hubbard, who averaged 18.9 points last year, now leads a team aiming for a fourth straight NCAA Tournament berth.
The Lions, led by coach Tony Pujol, return 10 from a 24-11 team and enter as the preseason ASUN favorite. They feature All-ASUN picks Corneilous Williams and Donte Bacchus.
See all current NCAA basketball previews for more season openers.
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Line Movement and Odds
The Bulldogs opened –11 with a total of 149.5. As of mid-week, the spread has tightened to –9.5 and total dipped to 148. Sharp money leaned toward North Alabama, while public tickets still favor Mississippi State.
On the College Basketball Odds page early bettors note more handle on the Under and Lions ATS.
Matchup Breakdown
Mississippi State outlook: The Bulldogs ranked 22nd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency last season, forcing 14 turnovers per game. With limited continuity, expect growing pains offensively but disciplined defense to carry early.
North Alabama outlook: The Lions return 80% of their scoring and ranked top-three in ASUN rebounding. They’ll rely on Williams inside and pace control to offset Mississippi State’s size.
Key stat: The Bulldogs averaged 11.7 offensive boards per game; North Alabama led its league in defensive rebounding. Whoever wins that battle dictates tempo
Injuries and Conditions
Mississippi State (team injury report):
G Dellquan Warren – probable, returning from foot injury.
C Gai Chol – out (knee).
North Alabama (team injury report):
- F Canin Jefferson – day-to-day (ankle).
- G Kevin de Kovachich – probable (knee).
Game is indoors at Humphrey Coliseum – no weather impact.
Best Bets and Prediction
Mississippi State is 1-4 ATS in its last five season openers. North Alabama covered six straight as a road underdog of +10 or more.
Projection: Mississippi State 77, North Alabama 68.
Best Bet: North Alabama +9.5.
Lean: Under 148 points.
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