Smu Mustangs vs Tarleton State Texans Picks and Predictions November 3rd 2025

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SMU tips off its season Monday night in Dallas against Tarleton State, with Andy Enfield leaning on one of the deepest backcourts in college basketball.

The SMU Mustangs return guards Boogie Miller and B.J. Edwards, both experienced and productive. Miller, a preseason All-ACC selection, averaged 13.2 points and 5.5 assists last year. Edwards added strong defense and 9.9 points per game. Enfield also worked the portal, bringing in Jaron Pierre Jr. from Jacksonville State and Sam Walters from Michigan to fill key roles.

Tarleton State, led by veteran coach Billy Gillispie, comes off a 12-20 season but should be healthier and deeper this year. The Texans forced 16.6 turnovers per game last season, ranking second nationally, and now add transfer guards Dior Johnson and Cam McDowell to spark their offense.

You can find more college basketball previews like this one on the NCAA basketball previews page

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Line Movement and Odds

SMU opened as a -15.5 favorite with a total of 141.5, and both numbers have held steady at most sportsbooks. Early tickets are slightly tilted toward the Mustangs, but the money has been balanced.

Public bettors like SMU’s experience, while sharper players see some value in Tarleton’s defensive disruption. You can monitor updated lines on the NCAA basketball odds board

Open line: SMU -15.5
Current line: SMU -15.5
Total: 141.5

For bettors building parlays or tracking opening movement, head to the college basketball picks section to compare expert analysis.

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Matchup Breakdown

SMU Outlook:
Enfield’s team is built around guard play. Miller and Edwards control pace and tempo, while Pierre Jr. adds scoring punch on the perimeter. SMU averaged nearly 80 points per game last season and shot 36 percent from three. The Mustangs’ turnover rate was low, a positive against Tarleton’s aggressive defense.

Tarleton State Outlook:
The Texans will try to pressure early and limit SMU’s rhythm. McDowell brings proven scoring ability, while Johnson adds pedigree and length. Forward Chris Mpaka anchors the interior after finishing top-three in the WAC in blocks. Tarleton’s concern remains depth and chemistry with 12 newcomers.

For a complete betting breakdown on all NCAA matchups, visit the Expert Betting Guide

Injuries and Conditions

SMU Mustangs

  • No significant injuries reported heading into the opener.

Tarleton State Texans

  • Healthy entering Monday’s game.

Game will be played indoors at Moody Coliseum, so weather is not a factor.

Best Bets and Prediction

SMU’s veteran guards should handle Tarleton’s defensive pressure and wear down the Texans’ rotation in the second half. The Mustangs’ offense and ball security make them a strong play against the number.

Projected score: SMU 83, Tarleton State 65
Best bet: SMU -15.5
Secondary lean: Under 141.5

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