Arkansas Razorbacks vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Picks and Predictions November 1st 2025

Game Preview: Arkansas vs Mississippi State

The Arkansas Razorbacks and Mississippi State Bulldogs both enter Saturday’s matchup searching for their first Southeastern Conference victory of the season — and a much-needed sense of direction.

Arkansas (2-6, 0-4 SEC) has lost six straight games and remains winless under interim head coach Bobby Petrino, who replaced Sam Pittman on Sept. 28. The Razorbacks were in position to win last week before collapsing late in a 33-24 home loss to Auburn. Mississippi State (4-4, 0-4 SEC) also squandered a late lead in Week 9, blowing a 31-14 advantage in the fourth quarter before falling 45-38 in overtime to Texas.

The two programs have traded SEC victories over the past two seasons, and both enter with similar struggles on defense and inconsistency at quarterback. Saturday’s matchup in Fayetteville offers one of the last realistic chances for either team to salvage bowl eligibility.

For updated betting lines and movement, visit the NCAAF odds and scores page.

Line Movement and Odds

Oddsmakers opened Arkansas as a narrow 2.5-point favorite with a total near 55. Early action has been balanced, though some sharp bettors have leaned toward the under due to both teams’ turnover issues and uneven red-zone efficiency.

You can find model projections, ATS trends, and consensus plays for this matchup at the NCAAF picks hub.

Arkansas Razorbacks Outlook

The Arkansas Razorbacks continue to search for rhythm on offense under Petrino’s leadership. Last week, quarterback Taylen Green threw for 202 yards and a touchdown but committed two costly turnovers in the fourth quarter. The Razorbacks turned the ball over on their final four drives against Auburn, erasing an eight-point lead in the process.

Running back Rashod Dubinion has been a rare bright spot, leading the team with 471 rushing yards and six touchdowns. Defensively, Arkansas has allowed 30 or more points in five of its last six games, struggling particularly against explosive plays through the air.

Still, Petrino praised the team’s leadership and work ethic, emphasizing improved execution and discipline as priorities entering Week 10.

Arkansas Razorbacks Injury Report

Luke Hasz (TE) – Out (Shoulder)
Chris Paul Jr. (LB) – Questionable (Ankle)
Andrew Chamblee (OL) – Questionable (Undisclosed)
Hudson Clark (DB) – Out (Knee)

Mississippi State Bulldogs Outlook

The Mississippi State Bulldogs have endured similar frustrations. Second-year head coach Jeff Lebby’s squad remains winless in conference play, going 0-12 in SEC competition since his arrival. The Bulldogs’ latest setback — a blown 17-point lead to Texas — reflected the same late-game issues that have haunted them all season.

Quarterback Will Rogers has struggled with turnovers, throwing seven interceptions in his past four games. The ground game, led by Jo’quavious Marks, provides balance but hasn’t been enough to offset defensive lapses. Mississippi State has given up an average of 34.8 points per game during its current losing streak.

Despite the record, Lebby insists his locker room remains motivated and confident heading into Fayetteville, calling his team “ticked off but resilient.”

Mississippi State Bulldogs Injury Report

Will Rogers (QB) – Probable (Shoulder)
Jo’quavious Marks (RB) – Questionable (Leg)
Justin Robinson (WR) – Questionable (Ankle)
John Lewis (LB) – Out (Foot)

Key Matchup / Path to Victory

Both teams need to protect the football to have any chance. Arkansas must avoid the fourth-quarter breakdowns that doomed it against Auburn, while Mississippi State’s defense must find ways to generate stops on third down — a persistent weakness all year.

Expect both offenses to lean on their running backs early to establish rhythm and limit turnovers. The quarterback who manages the game more efficiently will likely lead his team to its first conference victory.

Betting Trends

• Arkansas is 0-7 straight up in its last seven SEC games.
• The Razorbacks are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven home contests.
• Mississippi State is 1-6 ATS in its last seven SEC matchups.
• The Bulldogs are 5-2 to the over in their last seven games overall.
• Arkansas is 5-2 to the under at home since 2024.
• The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these programs.

Prediction

Both teams have shown flashes but can’t sustain momentum late in games. Arkansas has a slight edge at home and appears more balanced offensively, while Mississippi State’s defensive struggles continue to undermine its progress. Expect the Razorbacks to control the tempo on the ground and finally end their SEC drought.

Projected Score: Arkansas 27, Mississippi State 23
Best Bet: Arkansas -2.5
Total Lean: Under 55

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