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San Diego State Aztecs vs Air Force Falcons November 30th 2024
On Saturday, November 30th, the Air Force Falcons and San Diego State Aztecs will face off at Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego. Kick-off is set for 10:30 ET, with FS1 handling the broadcast. The Falcons are the -3.5-point favorites on the road in this week 14 college football matchup. The over/under line is currently at 43.5 points, and the money line odds stand at -172 for Air Force and +145 for San Diego State. Both teams are 3-8 on the season.
Air Force vs. San Diego State Key Information
- Teams: Falcons at Aztecs
- Where: Snapdragon Stadium San Diego
- Date: Saturday, November 30th
- Betting Odds AIRF -172 | SDST +145 O/U 43.5
The Falcons Can Win If…
Air Force enters Week 14 with a 4-7 record and no chance of becoming bowl-eligible. They are ranked 107th in our power rankings. On the road, they have gone 1-4, while their home record stands at 2-3 this season.
They’ve been favored in only two games this season, going 0-2 as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is -5.7 points per game, and they have a 4-6 record against the spread.
The over/under line for this week is set at 43.5 points. Air Force’s average over/under line this season is 42.4 points, with their games averaging 41.4 points per contest. Their over/under record for the season is 4-6.
Air Force’s offense has struggled this season, averaging just 17.8 points per game, which ranks 97th in the nation. They are 117th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 14. Quarterback John Busha has thrown for 415 yards, completing only 36.7% of his passes, with one touchdown and five interceptions. His passer rating is 32. The Falcons are 129th in passing yards per game.
Air Force leads the nation in rushing attempts, averaging 55.8 per game, and they are 12th in rushing yards, with 220.5 per game. Dylan Carson leads the team with 475 rushing yards and three touchdowns, averaging 4 yards per carry. Cade Harris has 292 receiving yards and one touchdown.
Air Force’s defense has allowed 23.5 points per game this season, ranking 44th nationally. In their recent game against Nevada, they gave up 19 points, allowing 21 first downs and 362 total yards. Nevada rushed for 94 yards on 25 attempts, while Air Force’s secondary allowed 268 passing yards but also recorded an interception.
Opponents have averaged 184.2 passing yards per game against Air Force, completing 63.1% of their throws. The Falcons rank 34th in the nation against the pass, facing the 12th fewest passing attempts. On the ground, they’ve allowed 159 rushing yards per game, ranking 101st.
- The Air Force Falcons have posted a 3-0 record in their previous three games. Their strong play has also resulted in an ATS mark of 3-0 (last 3). They had an over/under mark of 1-2 in those same games.
- Air Force has put together a record of 3-7 in their last ten games (regular season). In these matchups, they ended with an ATS record of 4-6 and an over-under mark of 4-6.
The Aztecs Can Win If…
San Diego State enters Week 14 with a 3-8 record, hosting Air Force. They are ranked 118th in our power rankings and have no chance of becoming bowl-eligible. At home, they are 1-3 this season.
The Aztecs have been favored in just two games, going 1-1 as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is -8 points per game, and they are 5-5 against the spread this season.
The over/under line for this week is 43.5 points. San Diego State’s over/under record is 5-5, with their games averaging 50.9 points and an average line of 53.2 points
San Diego State’s offense has struggled this season, ranking 128th in our offensive power rankings and averaging 21.5 points per game, which places them 86th nationally. Their third-down conversion rate is just 34.4%, and their passing game ranks 93rd in passer rating.
Today’s NCAA Football Spread Picks Are In! See what the experts recommend with NCAA football spread picks.
Quarterback Danny O’Neil has thrown for 1,951 yards with 11 touchdowns and six interceptions, posting a passer rating of 85. San Diego State is 50th in passing attempts per game. Running back Marquez Cooper has rushed for 1,180 yards and 10 touchdowns, averaging 4 yards per carry.
San Diego State’s defense has struggled this season, allowing 29.5 points per game. In their recent game against Utah State, they gave up 41 points, including 489 total yards—323 of which came on the ground. The Aztecs also allowed three passing touchdowns but managed to force one interception.
Opponents have averaged 204 rushing yards per game against San Diego State, ranking them 154th nationally. They’ve faced an average of 41.2 rushing attempts per game and allowed 221.9 passing yards, with quarterbacks completing 66.2% of their throws and posting a 98 passer rating.
- Over their last three regular season games, the San Diego State Aztecs have gone 1-2 straight up. Against the spread, they have a strong mark of 2-1 along with an over-under record of 1-2.
- Over their last ten regular season games, the San Diego State Aztecs have gone 3-7 straight up. Across these games, their ATS record was just 4-6, while posting an over-under record of 4-6.
The Lean
We have Air Force winning this week 14 matchup against San Diego State by a score of 23-17. Air Force is coming in as the -3.5 point spread favorite, and we like their chances to cover the spread.
With the over/under line sitting at 43.5 points, our projection of 40 combined points suggests that taking the under is the best play for this game.
