Byu Cougars vs Houston Cougars Picks and Predictions November 29th 2024

BYU is the heavy favorite in this matchup, with the point spread sitting at -12.5. The over/under line is currently at 41 points. The game is set to kick off at 10:15 ET from LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo and will be broadcast on ESPN. Houston comes in with a 4-7 record, while BYU is 9-2 on the season. The money line odds have BYU at -553 and Houston at +397.

Houston vs. BYU Key Information

• Teams: Cougars at Cougars
• Where: LaVell Edwards Stadium Provo
• Date: Saturday, November 30th
• Betting Odds BYU -553 | HOU +397 O/U 41

The Cougars Can Win If…

Houston enters Week 14 with a 4-7 record, and they have no chance of becoming bowl-eligible. They are 3-3 at home and 1-4 on the road this season. The Cougars have been favored in just two games, going 1-1 as the favorite and 3-6 as the underdog. They rank 84th in our CFB power rankings heading into their matchup with BYU.

Houston’s ATS record stands at 5-6, with a 3-3 mark at home and 2-3 on the road. Their average scoring margin is -8.6 points per game, and they’ve gone 1-1 against the spread as the favorite and 4-5 as the underdog this season.

Their over/under record is 1-10, with their games averaging 35.9 points. The average over/under line for Houston’s games has been 47.1 points, and this week’s line is set at 41 points.

Houston’s offense has struggled this season, averaging just 13.6 points per game, which ranks them 104th in the nation. They are 119th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 14. Their third-down conversion rate is only 26.6%, and they are 122nd in passing yards per game, with 152.4. Quarterback Donovan Smith has thrown for 867 yards, with four touchdowns and eight interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 68.

Houston ranks 51st in rushing attempts per game, averaging 139.4 yards on the ground. Re’Shaun Sanford II leads the team with 413 rushing yards, averaging 5 yards per carry, but has only one touchdown. Stephon Johnson has 348 receiving yards and two touchdowns this season.

Houston’s defense has been a bright spot this season, ranking 35th nationally by allowing just 22.3 points per game. In their recent game against Baylor, they gave up 20 points, including 204 passing yards and two touchdowns, but also forced three interceptions.

Opponents have averaged 135.4 rushing yards per game against Houston, including 148 yards on 47 carries in the Baylor game. The defense has faced 28.4 pass attempts per game, allowing 190.8 passing yards on average.

• Across Houston’s last three regular season games, their record sits at 1-2. The team’s record vs the spread was just 1-2, in addition to an over-under mark of 0-3.
• Houston has put together a record of 4-6 in their last ten games (regular season). Across these games, their ATS record was just 5-5, while posting an over-under record of 1-9.

The Cougars Can Win If…

BYU enters Week 14 with a 9-2 record, and they are 100% bowl-eligible. They have a 25.9% chance of winning the Big 12 and rank 15th in the country with a 26.0% chance of making the playoff. At home, BYU is 3-1, while they are 5-1 on the road this season.

Their ATS record stands at 6-4, with a +10.5 average scoring margin. BYU is 2-3 against the spread as the favorite and 4-1 as the underdog.

This season, BYU’s games have gone over the total seven times, with an average over/under line of 49.2 points. Their average game total is 51.1 points, while this week’s line is set at 41 points.

BYU’s offense is averaging 30.8 points per game, placing them 41st in the nation as they head into week 14. They are ranked 31st in our offensive power rankings. Their passing game ranks 49th, averaging 239.8 yards per game, and they are 56th in passing attempts.

Jake Retzlaff leads the team with 2,578 passing yards, 19 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, and he has a passer rating of 90. BYU is converting 34.9% of their third downs. LJ Martin has rushed for 543 yards, averaging 5 yards per carry, and Chase Roberts has 716 receiving yards.

BYU’s defense, ranked 22nd nationally, has allowed 20.3 points per game this season. In their recent game against Arizona State, they gave up 28 points, including three rushing touchdowns, while allowing 413 total yards, 166 of which came on the ground.

Opponents have averaged 142.9 rushing yards per game against BYU, with 182.5 passing yards. Quarterbacks have a 60.7 passer rating and a 54.5% completion rate against BYU’s defense, which ranks 5th and 19th in the country, respectively.

• The BYU Cougars have posted a 2-1 record in their previous three games. Against the spread, they have gone 1-2 and logged an over-under record of 2-1 in these games.
• BYU has put together a record of 7-3 in their last ten games (regular season). Against the spread, BYU went 6-4 in these games and finished with an over-under mark of 6-4.

The Lean

BYU is the heavy favorite in their matchup against Houston, with the point spread set at -12.5 in their favor. We expect BYU to come out on top with a final score of 32-16, covering the spread as the home favorite.

With the over/under line at 41 points, our projection of 48 combined points suggests that taking the over is the best play for this game.

BYU Fights to Salvage Big 12 Championship Aspirations

The No. 19 BYU Cougars (9-2, 6-2 Big 12) face a do-or-die scenario in their season finale against Houston on Saturday in Provo, Utah. After two consecutive losses derailed their College Football Playoff hopes and complicated their Big 12 title race, the Cougars are looking to rebound while hoping for help elsewhere to secure a spot in the conference championship game.

Tough Road to the Title

BYU’s 28-23 loss at Arizona State last week dropped the Cougars five spots in the CFP rankings and into a four-way tie for first place in the Big 12. They now sit behind No. 16 Arizona State and No. 18 Iowa State in the rankings, with No. 25 Colorado also in the mix for a title-game berth.

The Cougars need to win on Saturday and hope for favorable results in other matchups to stay in contention. Despite the uphill battle, head coach Kalani Sitake remains focused on the immediate task.

“The goal is to try and go 1-0 this week. That’s got to be our primary goal, and then we’ll deal with the results of how that affects everything else from then on,” Sitake said.

BYU’s recent struggles stem from an upset home loss to Kansas on Nov. 16 and last week’s setback to Arizona State, putting a damper on what was a promising 8-0 start.

Offensive Woes Plague BYU

Quarterback Jake Retzlaff threw for 346 yards against Arizona State, falling just shy of his season high. However, turnovers have been costly for the Cougars, as Retzlaff has thrown three interceptions compared to just two touchdown passes during their losing streak.

The offensive inconsistency has placed additional pressure on BYU’s defense, which must step up again against a Houston team that has struggled mightily on offense this season.

Houston Looks to Finish Strong

The Houston Cougars (4-7, 3-5 Big 12) enter the season finale with little more than pride on the line after a difficult first year under head coach Willie Fritz. Last week’s 20-10 loss to Baylor marked their seventh defeat in eight games, capping a season of offensive woes.

Houston ranks dead last among FBS teams in scoring offense, averaging just 13.6 points per game, and is 129th in total offense with 291.5 yards per contest.

Quarterback Zeon Chriss has struggled in the passing game, throwing for 668 yards with four touchdowns and seven interceptions, though he has added 376 rushing yards and two scores on the ground.

Fritz described Saturday’s game against BYU as Houston’s “bowl game” and expressed optimism about the opportunity.

“We want to do the best we possibly can in preparation and go out and play great on Saturday night, national TV, in front of a full house I imagine,” Fritz said.

Offensive Shake-Up for Houston

In a bid to spark their struggling offense, Fritz dismissed offensive coordinator Kevin Barbay earlier this week. Quarterbacks coach and passing game coordinator Shawn Bell will serve as interim coordinator and handle play-calling duties against BYU.

Fritz stressed that improved execution will be crucial for the Cougars to have success in Provo.

“There are some things we’re looking at this week, but more importantly, we’ve got to do a great job with the execution,” Fritz said.

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Key Matchups to Watch

BYU:

• Jake Retzlaff’s Decision-Making: The Cougars’ quarterback must limit turnovers and capitalize on opportunities against Houston’s vulnerable defense.
• Defensive Stand: BYU’s defense needs to force mistakes and contain Houston’s rushing attack, led by Zeon Chriss.

Houston:

• Offensive Adjustments: With a new play-caller at the helm, Houston must find ways to move the ball consistently and create scoring opportunities.
• Pressure on BYU’s QB: Houston’s defense must disrupt Retzlaff’s rhythm and force turnovers to give their offense short fields to work with.

The Stakes

While Houston’s season concludes on Saturday, BYU is fighting to keep its Big 12 title hopes alive. A win and some help could give the Cougars a shot at redemption in the conference championship game, capping what has been a roller-coaster season.

Prediction

BYU’s superior talent and motivation to keep their Big 12 hopes alive should carry them past a struggling Houston team. Look for Retzlaff to clean up his mistakes and lead the Cougars to a solid victory.

Final Score Prediction: BYU 31, Houston 14