Florida State Seminoles vs Florida Gators Picks and Predictions November 30th 2024

Florida State Seminoles vs Florida Gators November 30th 2024

ESPN2 will be covering this week 14 non-conference matchup between the Florida Gators and the Florida State Seminoles, set to kick off at 7:00 ET from Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee. The Gators are favored by -14.5 points, with the over/under line currently at 45.5 points. The money line odds are -739 for Florida and +502 for Florida State. The Gators are 6-5 on the season, while the Seminoles are just 2-9.

Florida vs. Florida State Key Information

At 6-5, Florida is 25th in our power rankings, with a 100% chance of bowl eligibility but no shot at the Southeastern title. They’ve gone 4-2 at home and 1-2 on the road this season.

Florida is 6-3 against the spread, with a +2.1 average scoring margin. They’ve been favored in just one game, going 1-0 ATS as the favorite and 4-3 as the underdog.

Their over/under record is 6-3, with an average line of 53.1 points. This week’s line is 45.5 points, and Florida games have averaged 53.2 points per contest.

Heading into week 14, Florida’s offense ranks 56th in points per game, averaging 27.6. They are 48th in our offensive power rankings. Their passing game is 64th, with 226.9 yards per game, and they convert 37.9% of third downs.

DJ Lagway leads Florida with 1,477 passing yards, nine touchdowns, and six interceptions. His passer rating is 100. Jadan Baugh has rushed for 522 yards and seven touchdowns. Elijhah Badger has 778 receiving yards and four touchdowns.

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Florida’s defense will look to build off a strong performance in their 24-17 win over Ole Miss, where they forced two interceptions and allowed 17 points. However, they did give up 464 total yards, including 323 passing yards.

On the season, Florida ranks 56th nationally, allowing 25.5 points per game. Opponents have averaged 161.9 rushing yards per game on 39.7 attempts, while quarterbacks have posted a 60% completion rate and a passer rating of 86.4 against Florida’s secondary, averaging 244.7 passing yards per game.

• Spanning across their last three games, Florida have gone 2-1. Their strong play has also resulted in an ATS mark of 2-1 (last 3). They had an over/under mark of 1-2 in those same games.
• The Florida Gators have gone 6-4 over their last ten regular season games. This includes going 7-3 vs. the spread along with an over-under mark of 5-5.

Florida State enters Week 14 with a 2-9 record and no chance of becoming bowl-eligible. They are ranked 85th in our power rankings and have gone 1-4 at home this season.

The Seminoles have been favored in four games this year, going 1-3 in those matchups. Their average scoring margin is -11.9 points per game, and they’ve covered the spread three times, with a 3-7 ATS record.

This week’s over/under line is set at 45.5 points. Florida State’s games have averaged 43.5 points, and their over/under record is 2-8, with an average line of 49 points.

Florida State’s offense has struggled this season, averaging just 15.8 points per game, which ranks 101st nationally. They are 118th in our offensive power rankings heading into their matchup against Florida. Their third-down conversion rate is only 27.2%, and their rushing attack has been limited to 93.8 yards per game.

DJ Uiagalelei leads the team with 1,065 passing yards, but he has thrown six interceptions to just four touchdowns, resulting in a passer rating of 67. Florida State ranks 110th in passing yards per game. Lawrance Toafili leads the ground game with 413 rushing yards.

Florida State’s defense put up a strong performance in their recent game against Charleston Southern, allowing just 7 points. They held the Buccaneers to 57 rushing yards on 29 attempts and forced one interception, though they did give up 218 passing yards.

On the season, the Seminoles are allowing 27.7 points per game. Opponents are averaging 184.6 rushing yards per game, while quarterbacks have posted a 100.6 passer rating and completed 63.6% of their passes against Florida State’s defense.

Our projections suggest that the Gators will win this week 14 matchup against Florida State with a final score of 26-21. With Florida State coming in as +14.5 point underdogs, we like their chances to cover the spread.

For the over/under, with the line set at 45.5 points, we have a slight lean towards the over, as our model is projecting a combined 47 points.

Revived Florida Focuses on Finish in Trip to Florida State

Florida (6-5) enters Saturday’s rivalry clash against Florida State (2-9) with newfound momentum, fresh off back-to-back victories over ranked SEC opponents LSU and Ole Miss. The Gators, under head coach Billy Napier, have defied early-season expectations and silenced whispers of Napier’s job being in jeopardy.

Napier’s team not only secured consecutive wins over ranked opponents for the first time since 2008 but also showed resilience and execution in their 24-17 victory over Ole Miss. Quarterback DJ Lagway led the way with two touchdown passes, showcasing the team’s balanced approach.

“It was complimentary ball,” Napier said. “We had a lot of comments about the game afterwards. So, you know, we have no time to play around here, because we’re turning the page.”

A win over rival Florida State would bolster the Gators’ bowl prospects and end their regular season on a high note.

Florida State Seeks Redemption

For Florida State, this season has been a struggle, but last week’s 41-7 win over Charleston Southern provided a glimpse of positivity. The Seminoles snapped a six-game losing streak and posted their highest point total of the season, a full 20 points more than their previous high.

Quarterback Luke Kromenhoek shined in the victory, completing 13 of 20 passes for 209 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. His performance earned him the starting nod for Saturday’s game, and head coach Mike Norvell is optimistic about his potential.

“To be able to have three touchdown passes, he made a lot of good decisions,” Norvell said. “There’s some throws that he missed, some parts of different reads and progressions where I think he’s going to continue to even become that much more efficient around it.”

A Rivalry with Rich History

Florida leads the all-time series 37-28-2, but Florida State has claimed the past two matchups, each by nine points or fewer. This year, the Gators enter as favorites, a rarity in this rivalry’s recent history.

For Florida, a win would cap off an impressive late-season surge and boost their standing heading into bowl season. For Florida State, a victory would salvage some pride and bring a silver lining to an otherwise dismal season.

Key Players to Watch

Florida

• DJ Lagway: The quarterback has been instrumental in the Gators’ recent success, managing the offense with precision and poise.
• Florida Defense: Complementary football has been the Gators’ mantra, and their ability to stifle the Seminoles’ attack will be crucial.

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Florida State

• Luke Kromenhoek: The young quarterback will aim to build on last week’s strong performance and give the Seminoles a fighting chance.
• Seminoles’ Offense: Coming off a season-best showing, the unit will look to carry that momentum against a tougher opponent.

Stakes and Outlook

While Florida is favored, rivalry games often defy the odds. The Gators have a chance to solidify their late-season turnaround, while the Seminoles are playing for pride and the satisfaction of spoiling their rival’s ambitions. Expect an emotionally charged atmosphere in Tallahassee as these storied programs clash once more.