Game Preview: Houston vs West Virginia
The Houston Cougars continue their climb up the Big 12 standings as they welcome the West Virginia Mountaineers to TDECU Stadium on Saturday. Houston, ranked No. 22 nationally, enters as one of the conference’s most improved teams under second-year head coach Willie Fritz, while West Virginia searches for its first Big 12 win of the season.
Houston (7-1, 4-1 Big 12) comes off a 24-16 road win over then-No. 24 Arizona State, marking its fourth road victory in as many tries and its first over a ranked opponent since 2017. The Cougars have emerged as legitimate title contenders, trailing only BYU and Cincinnati in the conference race.
West Virginia (2-6, 0-5) dropped its fifth straight game last week, a 23-17 homecoming loss to TCU. Freshman quarterback Scotty Fox Jr. set a program passing record for a true freshman with 301 yards, but inexperience continues to limit the Mountaineers’ offensive efficiency.
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Line Movement and Odds
Houston opened as a 13.5-point home favorite, with the total set at 49.5. The Cougars’ strong red-zone offense and defensive pressure have driven early support from bettors, while the over has attracted interest based on West Virginia’s road scoring trends.
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Houston Cougars Outlook
The Houston Cougars enter Week 10 riding momentum on both sides of the ball. Quarterback Conner Weigman continues to excel in Fritz’s balanced attack, accounting for three red-zone touchdowns in last week’s win. Houston ranks among the top five nationally in red-zone efficiency (92.6%) and has scored touchdowns on 17 of 27 trips inside the 20.
Running back Dean Connors leads the team with 586 rushing yards, while kicker Ethan Sanchez remains a reliable weapon at 16-for-19 on field goals. The Cougars’ defense ranks seventh nationally in interceptions and 10th in sacks, providing consistent pressure that has helped them cover three straight spreads.
At home, Houston is averaging 31.2 points per game, and their disciplined play — zero fumbles over the last two weeks — has been a major difference-maker.
Houston Cougars Injury Report
Stacy Sneed (RB) – Questionable (Undisclosed)
David Ndukwe (WR) – Out (Leg)
Stephon Johnson (WR) – Out (Undisclosed)
Devan Williams (LB) – Questionable (Undisclosed)
Re’Shaun Sanford II (RB) – Out (Undisclosed)
West Virginia Mountaineers Outlook
The West Virginia Mountaineers continue to show effort but struggle to close games. Despite the loss to TCU, the offense moved the ball efficiently behind freshman quarterback Scotty Fox Jr., who threw for 301 yards — a school record for a true freshman. However, West Virginia has scored more than 20 points just twice in its last five outings.
Head coach Rich Rodriguez remains optimistic, citing progress from his young roster. The Mountaineers rank 40th nationally in rushing yards (1,428) and 9th in interceptions forced, but they’ve allowed 120th-most points in FBS, highlighting defensive inconsistencies.
Running back Diore Hubbard and receiver Cam Vaughn are the focal points of the offense, combining for six total touchdowns. Their production will be key against a Houston defense that thrives on takeaways and field position control.
West Virginia Mountaineers Injury Report
Jaden Bray (WR) – Out (Undisclosed)
Nicco Marchiol (QB) – Questionable (Foot)
Jahiem White (RB) – Out (Knee)
Hammond Russell IV (DL) – Questionable (Undisclosed)
Jordan McCants (DB) – Questionable (Undisclosed)
Camdon Pitchford (OL) – Questionable (Undisclosed)
Key Matchup / Path to Victory
Houston’s red-zone execution versus West Virginia’s defensive resilience is the defining matchup. The Cougars have converted over 92% of their red-zone trips this season, while the Mountaineers have been opportunistic in forcing turnovers but vulnerable against dual-threat quarterbacks.
Conner Weigman’s ability to extend plays with his legs could be the deciding factor, while West Virginia’s offensive line must handle Houston’s aggressive pass rush. If the Cougars establish early balance and protect the football, they’re likely to pull away in the second half.
Betting Trends
- Houston is 6-0 straight up as a favorite since 2024.
- The Cougars are 4-0 to the over as favorites this season.
- Houston is 3-0 ATS in its last three games.
- West Virginia is 11-3-1 to the over after a loss since 2023.
- The Mountaineers are 10-3 to the over in their last 13 road games.
- Houston is 5-2 ATS at home since 2024.
Prediction
Houston’s consistency in red-zone offense and superior defensive line depth make it the more complete team. West Virginia’s youth at key positions and road struggles suggest another uphill climb. Expect the Cougars to control possession and cover comfortably.
Projected Score: Houston 35, West Virginia 20
Best Bet: Houston -13.5
Total Lean: Over 49.5
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