Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Texas Longhorns Picks and Predictions October 25th 2025

Texas Longhorns vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Game Preview

The Texas Longhorns visit the Mississippi State Bulldogs on Saturday, October 25, 2025, at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, MS. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:15 PM ET on ESPN.

No. 22 Texas (5-2, 2-1 SEC) continues its push for conference contention despite offensive inconsistency, while Mississippi State (4-3, 0-3) aims to snap a 15-game SEC losing streak that dates back to 2023. Both programs need this game to stabilize their seasons, but for different reasons — Texas to stay ranked, and Mississippi State to regain confidence.

Stay updated with live movement and spread changes on the college football odds and scores page.

Tap Into Predictive Models That Deliver

Smart Analytics for Smarter Bets

Get Free Trial

Line Movement and Betting Odds

Texas Moneyline: -263
Mississippi State Moneyline: +215
Texas Spread: -7.0 (-110)
Mississippi State Spread: +7.0 (-110)
Total Over/Under: 44.5 (-110)

Texas opened as a one-touchdown favorite on the road, and early action has kept the spread steady. The total of 44.5 reflects expectations of a defensive, methodical game between two teams that rank in the lower half of the SEC in scoring.

Explore public betting splits and computer predictions in the college football picks section.

Texas Longhorns

Texas survived a 16-13 overtime road win at Kentucky last week, leaning heavily on its defense to deliver. The Longhorns forced four fumbles and stood tall on the goal line to secure the win despite being outgained 395-179.

Quarterback Arch Manning has thrown for 1,186 yards and 10 touchdowns this season but struggled in Lexington, completing just 132 yards through the air. Texas ranks 11th in the SEC in both total yards (368.1) and scoring (26.7 PPG), with head coach Steve Sarkisian emphasizing execution and rhythm as the offense’s biggest hurdles.

Defensively, the Longhorns remain elite. They rank top 10 in both sacks (21) and interceptions (8), driven by relentless pressure from their front seven. Kicker Mason Shipley has been reliable, connecting on 11 field goals this season.

Injury Report

Cole Hutson (OL) – Questionable (Undisclosed)
CJ Baxter Jr. (RB) – Questionable (Hamstring)
Andre Cojoe (OL) – Out (Knee)
Connor Stroh (OL) – Questionable (Undisclosed)
Aaron Butler (WR) – Questionable (Undisclosed)
Xavier Filsaime (DB) – Questionable (Undisclosed)
Maraad Watson (DL) – Questionable (Undisclosed)
Jonathan Cunningham (LB) – Questionable (Undisclosed)

Full injury report for Texas Longhorns

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Mississippi State nearly snapped its SEC drought last week but fell short in a 23-21 loss to Florida. Quarterback Blake Shapen threw for 324 yards and two touchdowns but was intercepted late as the Bulldogs were driving for a potential game-winning score.

The Bulldogs’ offense is balanced, ranking 35th in points scored (223), 63rd in passing yards (1,594), and 45th in rushing yards (1,254). Running back Davon Booth has emerged as a reliable option, posting 105 yards and two touchdowns last week.

Defensively, Mississippi State has shown flashes of strength. They rank 11th nationally in interceptions (10) and 19th in sacks (10). The challenge will be maintaining discipline against Texas’ tempo-driven offense and avoiding costly turnovers at home.

Injury Report

Brennan Smith (OL) – Questionable (Undisclosed)
Blake Steen (OL) – Questionable (Undisclosed)
Will Whitson (DL) – Out (Undisclosed)
Fluff Bothwell (RB) – Questionable (Leg)
Jakheem Shumpert-Perkins (OL) – Questionable (Undisclosed)

Full injury report for Mississippi State Bulldogs

Key Storylines

• Texas has won 23 of its last 26 games as a favorite.
• Mississippi State has lost 15 straight SEC games dating back to 2023.
• Arch Manning has thrown 10 touchdowns in seven games but averages just 169 passing yards per contest.
• Mississippi State QB Blake Shapen ranks top 60 nationally in passing yards and completion rate.
• Texas ranks top 10 nationally in sacks and interceptions combined.

Prediction

Mississippi State’s home crowd and balanced offense should make this competitive early, but Texas’ defensive depth and superior red-zone execution give them the upper hand. Expect another grind-it-out performance from the Longhorns, with their defense sealing the win late.

Projected Score: Texas 24, Mississippi State 17
Best Bet: Texas -7 (-110)
Secondary Lean: Under 44.5 (-110)

Follow SEC game analysis and betting performance data all season on ScoresAndStats College Football.

ScoresAndStats Handicappers and Picks

View profit leaders, performance stats, and verified expert selections on the Handicapper Leaderboard.
For betting fundamentals and systems, check the Bettors Handbook.

Smart bettors use information before exposure.