Ucf Knights vs Utah Utes Picks and Predictions November 28th 2024

UCF Knights vs Utah Utes November 28th 2024

UCF comes into this matchup vs. Utah as the -8.5 point favorite, and the over/under line is currently sitting at 49 points. The game is set to kick off at 8:00 ET from FBC Mortgage Stadium in Orlando and will be broadcast on FOX. Both teams are 4-7 on the season, and the UCF Knights are -340 on the money line. This is a week 14 matchup in college football.

Utah vs. UCF Key Information

• Teams: Utes at Knights
• Where: FBC Mortgage Stadium Orlando
• Date: Friday, November 29th
• Betting Odds UCF -340 | UTAH +264 O/U 49

The Utes Can Win If…

Utah enters Week 14 with a 4-7 record, and they have a 0.0% chance of becoming bowl-eligible. They rank 52nd in our CFB power rankings. On the road, the Utes are 2-3, while their home record stands at 1-4 this season.

Utah has been favored in seven of their 11 games but has gone 3-4 in those matchups. Their average scoring margin is +1.9 points per game, and they are 3-7 against the spread this year.

The over/under line for this week’s game is 49 points. Utah’s average over/under line is 46 points, and their games have averaged 44.5 points per contest, with their over/under record at 4-6.

Utah’s offense has struggled this season, averaging just 23.2 points per game, which ranks 81st nationally. They are 112th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 14. Their third-down conversion rate is only 33.5%, and their passing game has been inconsistent, with a passer rating of 73, placing them 121st in the country. They are averaging 207.5 passing yards per game.

Isaac Wilson leads Utah’s passing attack with 1,510 yards, but he has thrown 11 interceptions compared to 10 touchdowns, resulting in a passer rating of 71. On the ground, Micah Bernard has rushed for 922 yards, averaging 5 yards per carry. Dorian Singer leads the receiving corps with 687 yards on 50 catches.

Utah’s defense, ranked 28th nationally, has allowed an average of 21.3 points per game this season. In their recent matchup against Iowa State, they gave up 31 points, including three rushing touchdowns, while allowing 405 total yards and 25 first downs. Iowa State ran the ball 38 times for 123 yards and threw for 282 yards, completing 21 of 39 passes, though Utah did manage to force one interception.

On the season, Utah’s defense has allowed 130.9 rushing yards per game and 199.7 passing yards. Opposing quarterbacks have completed just 51.8% of their passes, the sixth-lowest percentage in the nation, with a passer rating of 72.4 against Utah, which ranks 23rd nationally.

• Over their last three regular season games, the Utah Utes have gone 0-3 straight up. Against the spread, they have a strong mark of 2-1 along with an over-under record of 3-0.
• The Utah Utes have gone 3-7 over their last ten regular season games. In these contests, the team went just 3-7 against the spread, while going 4-6 on the over-under.

The Knights Can Win If…

UCF enters Week 14 with a 4-7 record, facing Utah at home. They are 2-3 at home and 1-4 on the road this season. The Knights have been favored in six of their 11 games, going 2-4 as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is +5.1 points per game, and they rank 39th in our CFB power rankings.

Against the spread, UCF is 4-6, with a 2-3 mark at home. As the favorite, they are 2-4 ATS, while they’ve gone 2-1 ATS as the underdog.

The over/under line for this week is 49 points. UCF’s games have averaged 58.7 points, with an average line of 57.1 points. Their over/under record for the season is 7-3.

UCF’s offense is centered around their rushing attack, as they rank 3rd in the nation with 254.9 rushing yards per game, and they are 7th in rushing attempts, averaging 42.9 per game. RJ Harvey has been the focal point, rushing for 1,458 yards and scoring 21 touchdowns, averaging 6 yards per carry. UCF is 34th in scoring, with 31.9 points per game, and they are 35th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 14.

KJ Jefferson leads the passing game with 1,012 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 96. UCF ranks 94th in passing yards per game. Kobe Hudson is the top receiver, with 691 yards and 4 touchdowns on 40 catches.

UCF’s defense allowed 31 points in their recent 31-21 loss to West Virginia, giving up 205 rushing yards on 51 attempts and three rushing touchdowns. They also allowed 118 passing yards and one passing touchdown.

For the season, UCF ranks 62nd nationally, giving up 26.8 points per game. They’ve allowed 125.5 rushing yards per game (47th) and 228.5 passing yards per game, ranking 104th in the country.

• Across UCF’s last three regular season games, their record sits at 1-2. In these matchups, they ended with an ATS record of 1-2 and an over-under mark of 2-1.
• UCF has put together a record of 5-5 in their last ten games (regular season). In these contests, the team went just 4-6 against the spread, while going 6-4 on the over-under.

The Lean

UCF comes into this week 14 matchup as -8.5 point favorites at home against the Utah Utes. We expect UCF to cover the spread, with a projected final score of 33-21 in their favor.

With the over/under line set at 49 points, our projection of 54 total points suggests that taking the over is the best play.

A Disappointing End to High Hopes

The Utah Utes and UCF Knights will close their respective seasons on Friday in Orlando, a game that caps underwhelming campaigns for both teams. While both squads entered the year with high expectations, they now face each other as 4-7 teams aiming for one last bright spot before heading into the offseason.

Utah’s Struggles After a Promising Start

Utah’s inaugural season in the Big 12 began with a promising 4-0 record, but the Utes have since dropped seven consecutive games. Their latest defeat came in heartbreaking fashion, as then-No. 22 Iowa State drove 75 yards late in the fourth quarter to hand the Utes a 31-28 loss.

Despite the skid, Utah’s defense remains a strong point. The unit ranks tied for third in the Big 12 in points allowed per game (21.3) and third in total yards allowed (325.2). Last week, the defense accounted for a major highlight with Lander Barton’s 87-yard interception return for a touchdown.

Coach Kyle Whittingham praised the defense but acknowledged the challenge ahead.

“They’re running it for over 250 a week and another couple hundred throwing the ball,” Whittingham said of UCF. “Scoring points, good on third down, good in the red zone, so it’ll be a challenge for our defense this week to face that rushing attack.”

UCF’s Offense: A Ground Game Powerhouse

In contrast to Utah’s defensive prowess, UCF boasts one of the most explosive rushing attacks in the nation. The Knights lead all Power Four schools with an average of 254.9 rushing yards per game, thanks largely to senior running back RJ Harvey.

Harvey has been a bright spot in an otherwise challenging season, leading the Big 12 with 1,458 rushing yards while averaging an impressive 6.9 yards per carry.

Coach Gus Malzahn emphasized the importance of finishing the season strong for the team’s seniors.

“They play really good defense. They hold onto the football, and we’re going to have to do a good job on special teams,” Malzahn said. “But really, it’s as simple as … trying to win this game for our seniors.”

Contrasting Strengths

Friday’s game sets up a compelling matchup of strengths. Utah’s defense has been effective at limiting opponents’ scoring opportunities, while UCF’s offense has thrived on its powerful ground game.

However, both teams have struggled to find consistency in other phases. Utah’s offense has relied heavily on its defense and special teams for scoring support, as evidenced last week when the Utes scored just one offensive touchdown.

For UCF, turnovers and defensive lapses have been a recurring problem, with the team surrendering early leads and struggling to mount comebacks.

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Keys to the Game

For Utah:

• Contain RJ Harvey: Slowing down UCF’s star running back is critical to stifling the Knights’ offense.
• Generate Offense: The Utes must find ways to sustain drives and avoid relying solely on defensive or special teams scores.

For UCF:

• Establish the Run Early: Setting the tone with the ground game will put pressure on Utah’s defense and open up passing opportunities.
• Limit Turnovers: Keeping possession and avoiding costly mistakes will be essential against a defense capable of creating big plays.

The Stakes

While neither team has bowl eligibility on the line, pride and momentum for next season will be key motivators. For UCF, a win would provide a positive finish to its second Big 12 campaign. For Utah, snapping a seven-game losing streak would give the team something to build on in the offseason.

Prediction

Both teams have shown flashes of potential, but UCF’s dominant rushing attack could be the difference-maker against a Utah squad struggling for offensive consistency.

Final Score Prediction: UCF 27, Utah 21