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Green Bay Packers vs Dallas Cowboys Week 4 Betting Preview
The Green Bay Packers head to Dallas on Sunday night in one of Week 4’s marquee matchups. The Packers (2–1) aim to bounce back from a 13–10 loss at Cleveland, while the Cowboys (1–2) are trying to steady themselves after a 31–14 defeat in Chicago.
The spotlight falls on Micah Parsons, traded from Dallas to Green Bay in a blockbuster deal only a month ago. It’s a storyline amplified by the fact that Green Bay has already surged to the top of defensive rankings while Dallas has slipped, something you can see reflected in recent NFL game results showing each team’s trends heading into Week 4.
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Jerry Jones, who engineered the deal, called it a “business decision,” while Parsons countered, “I think Dallas loves me… I’m honestly excited he’s not going to be on the field,” referencing injured WR CeeDee Lamb.
Green Bay is undefeated at AT&T Stadium (5–0), while Dallas clings to hope that Dak Prescott can spark a passing game now without its top weapon.
Line Movement and Odds
- Moneyline: Packers -340, Cowboys +270
- Spread: Packers -7 (-106), Cowboys +7 (-113)
- Total: Over/Under 47.5 (O -108 / U -112)
The market has tilted toward Green Bay, moving the spread from an opener of -6 to -7. The Packers are drawing the majority of sharp money, while public bettors have sprinkled Dallas as a home dog. The total opened at 48 and dipped to 47.5, with early under money reflecting Green Bay’s defensive dominance.
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Matchup Breakdown
Green Bay Outlook
The Packers are thriving defensively with Parsons terrorizing quarterbacks. They lead the league in pressures (51) and rank second in sacks (8). Offensively, Jordan Love has weapons in Josh Jacobs (180 rush yards, 2 TDs) and Tucker Kraft (169 receiving yards, 2 TDs). Green Bay’s balance is its strength, ranking top 10 in both rushing and passing a year ago. With Dallas hemorrhaging big plays defensively, expect Love to test downfield opportunities.
Dallas Outlook
The Cowboys’ offense has been inconsistent, scoring just 14 points last week. Dak Prescott has volume — leading the NFL in completions (90) and attempts (126) — but the loss of Lamb is a major blow. George Pickens and TE Jake Ferguson must pick up slack. Defensively, Dallas hopes Jadeveon Clowney’s debut brings juice to a pass rush that has managed just three sacks in three games. With Trevon Diggs banged up and secondary depth thinning, Dallas must avoid explosive plays to stay competitive.
Key Battle
Micah Parsons vs. Dak Prescott’s protection. Parsons is the NFL’s most disruptive pass rusher, and Dallas’ offensive line is hurting with injuries to Tyler Booker and Cooper Beebe. If Green Bay generates pressure without blitzing, Prescott could be in for a long night. Conversely, Dallas’ pass rush against Jordan Love — now without Parsons — will struggle to match Green Bay’s disruption.
Injuries and Conditions
| Green Bay Packers | Dallas Cowboys |
|---|---|
| • RT Zach Tom (oblique) out | • WR CeeDee Lamb (ankle) out |
| • LG Aaron Banks (groin) questionable | • G Tyler Booker (ankle) out |
| • S Javon Bullard (concussion) questionable | • C Cooper Beebe (ankle) out |
| • DT Devonte Wyatt (knee) questionable | • CB Trevon Diggs (knee) DNP |
| • CB DaRon Bland (foot) limited | |
| • CB Trikweze Bridges (knee) limited |
Weather: Very hot with clouds in Arlington, but the retractable roof will ensure neutral conditions.
Best Bets and Prediction
Green Bay has the better defense, the healthier roster, and the motivation of Parsons’ return. Dallas’ offense without Lamb will struggle to sustain drives, especially against a pressure-heavy Packers front. Unless Prescott plays turnover-free and Ferguson dominates the middle, the Cowboys are up against it.
- Pick: Packers -7 (-106)
- Projected Score: Packers 28, Cowboys 17
- Reasoning: Green Bay controls the line of scrimmage on both sides, with Parsons disrupting Dallas’ protections.
- Lean: Under 47.5 — Dallas’ offense is shorthanded, and Green Bay’s defense is limiting big plays.
- Market Split: 70% tickets Packers, 60% money Cowboys (sharper lean to Dallas +7).
Need more NFL Week 4 betting forecasts? See all previews here →
| Category | Detail |
|---|---|
| Best Bet | Packers -7 (-106) |
| Confidence | ★★★★☆ |
| Projected Score | Packers 28, Cowboys 17 |
| Total Lean | Under 47.5 |
| Market Split | 70% tickets Packers, 60% money Cowboys |
Handicappers and Picks
Sunday Night Football lines always draw heavy action, but sharp bettors separate from public sentiment by attacking key matchups. Track who’s hot with the Leaderboard, where experts’ NFL performance is updated daily. For premium action, visit Service Plays to access high-conviction picks.
Want free sides, totals, and player props? Head to our NFL Odds section, where every matchup is broken down. And for bettors refining strategy, the Bettors Handbook covers bankroll management, line shopping, and exploiting public overreactions.
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