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Broncos vs Bengals Week 4 Betting Preview
The Cincinnati Bengals head to Mile High for Monday Night Football against the Denver Broncos. Kick at Empower Field is Monday, Sept. 29, 2025, 8:15 p.m. ET on ABC. Each team seeks a reset after tough finishes. Sean Payton said his group must prove it can “finish,” and this spot offers it. Opening odds: Broncos -7.5, DEN ML -380 / CIN ML +303, Total 44.5. For a broader slate view, see our Week 4 odds and predictions hub here: NFL Week 4 outlook.
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Line Movement and Odds
Open vs. current: Market opened DEN -7.5 with the total 44.5. Books have held the spread at 7.5, some juice leaning to Cincinnati +7.5. Moneyline ranges mirror opener, with Denver a strong favorite. Early public tickets lean Broncos. Larger wagers show interest on Bengals +7.5 at plus money on the spread.
Team pulse: Denver has blown fourth-quarter leads in back-to-back weeks, urgency is high. Cincinnati is in damage control after five turnovers last Sunday.
Standouts to watch:
• Courtland Sutton comes in hot after a 118-yard, 1-TD day.
• Bo Nix limited mistakes last week and profiles as efficient at home.
• Jake Browning has thrown five interceptions in six quarters, so ball security is the hinge point.
• Kris Jenkins Jr. flashed with 1.5 sacks vs. Minnesota.
Coach note: Payton said the Broncos must show they can “finish,” a clear tone for late-game execution.
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Matchup Breakdown
Bengals Outlook
Your handicap starts with turnovers. Cincinnati gave it away five times in Minnesota, four in the first half, and Browning has pressed throws into traffic. The plan should lean on timing throws and early down rhythm to protect the defense. The Bengals still have chain-moving traits on third down, and a pass rush that can win in spurts. If Cincinnati stays even in turnovers and hits two shot plays off play-action, this spread becomes live late.
Broncos Outlook
Denver’s profile travels but plays best at altitude. A credible run game sets up Nix’s quick game. Sutton is the matchup piece outside, and Marvin Mims Jr. adds burst. Defensively, expect pressure looks to bait Browning. The Broncos have led late two straight weeks, so the emphasis is closing two-minute defense and four-minute offense. If Denver owns field position and hits a red-zone 4-for-5 type night, a cover is in reach.
Trenches, the key battle
Cincinnati’s protection versus Denver’s edge pressure decides pace. If the Broncos get immediate wins with four, Lou Anarumo will need to shorten routes and live in quick game. If the Bengals keep Browning clean on longs, Denver’s back end will be in conflict against crossers and slot fades.
Injuries and Conditions
| Cincinnati Bengals | Denver Broncos |
|---|---|
| • QB Joe Burrow (toe) – out after Week 2 surgery | • DE John Franklin-Myers (hip) – limited |
| • DE Shemar Stewart (ankle) – did not practice | • Monitoring routine veteran rest on defense |
| • TE Noah Fant (concussion protocol) – did not practice Bengals injury report | • Offense healthy among primary skill starters Broncos injury report |
Weather: Outdoors at altitude. Expect cool, dry late-September conditions. Wind can swirl in the fourth. Monitor day-of for any shifts.
Best Bets and Prediction
The market sticks at DEN -7.5, which tells you sharps respect Cincinnati at +7.5 but not enough to crash the number. Denver’s defense should force shorter throws and rally to tackle. Cincinnati’s path to a cover is turnover neutrality and one or two Sutton-stopping third-down wins. Your best angle is the points with a back-door live. Secondary look, a slight lean to the Over if Denver finishes drives. For more card-worthy breakdowns, explore our NFL previews: NFL Best Bets.
• Pick: Bengals +7.5
• Projected score: Broncos 24, Bengals 21
• Reasoning: Turnover regression for CIN, late-game urgency for DEN, and a live dog through four quarters.
• Secondary lean: Over 44.5
Ready to bet with an edge? Playoff pushes begin with sharp habits. See the best handicappers →
| Category | Detail |
|---|---|
| Best Bet | Bengals +7.5 (–115) |
| Confidence | ★★★★☆ |
| Projected Score | Broncos 24, Bengals 21 |
| Moneyline Lean | Broncos to win, parlay piece only |
| Total Lean | Over 44.5 (–106) if DEN finishes drives |
| Market Split | More tickets on Broncos, larger wagers showing Bengals +7.5 |
Handicappers and Picks
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