Oilers One Win Away: Stars Face Elimination

Oilers on the Brink: Can Dallas Avoid Another Playoff Collapse?

The Edmonton Oilers are just one victory away from another trip to the Stanley Cup Final. The Dallas Stars? They’re staring down elimination in a familiar, frustrating position — the wrong side of a 3-1 series deficit.

Thursday night in Dallas, the Stars host Game 5 in what’s become a must-win moment for a franchise that’s fallen short in back-to-back conference finals. Can they turn the tide, or will it be another heartbreak chapter written?

Want expert picks ahead of the puck drop? Tap into the NHL picks page.

Trouble in Texas: Stars’ Offense Goes Silent

Since their Game 1 win, Dallas has been outscored 13-2 by the Oilers. And those two goals? Both came from Jason Robertson. The rest of the forward crew has gone missing — and it couldn’t come at a worse time.

Players like Mikko Rantanen, Wyatt Johnston, and Jamie Benn are all riding extended goal droughts, while Tyler Seguin has scored in just one of the team’s last 14 playoff games.

Matt Duchene, expected to be a playoff asset, has scored once in 17 games.

Robertson, ever the optimist, still sees hope.

“We’re doing good things, and it’s not going in for us. We still have life,” he said.

Chances Don’t Equal Goals

Dallas controlled large portions of Game 4 — especially the first period — but walked into the dressing room down 1-0. That frustration is mounting.

“I try to help and haven’t been able to do it as much this series,” Rantanen said. “So, I will try to reset … and try to find some keys to get a bounce or two.”

Looking for where the smart money’s going? Visit the NHL odds page.

Edmonton’s Confidence is Quiet, Not Cocky

Edmonton isn’t popping champagne just yet. Despite leading the series 3-1 and winning 11 of their last 13 games, they know the hardest win is the last one.

“They don’t get too high or too low,” said head coach Kris Knoblauch. “It’s never a mindset of ‘we’ve got this under wraps.’”

Veteran forward Leon Draisaitl echoed the caution.

“We know there are certain areas we can clean up and be better at, but overall, we’re playing a pretty good game.”

Clutch Culture: Why Edmonton Closes

Since 2022, the Oilers are 8-1 in series-clinching games, with their lone loss coming in Game 7 of the 2024 Stanley Cup Final after a near-miraculous comeback against Florida.

That clutch mentality? It travels.

Read detailed odds predictions at the Stanley Cup Odds blog.

Missing Hyman: What Edmonton Loses — And Gains

The loss of Zach Hyman to a season-ending injury is a big blow. Hyman, a key driver of offense and energy, went down in Game 4 after a hit by Mason Marchment. The Oilers will have to adapt quickly.

“He’s a big part of our team on and off the ice,” said Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. “But other guys have already stepped up.”

Look for Jeff Skinner to return to the lineup. He was scratched earlier in the playoffs but brings a veteran presence and scoring touch. Edmonton will also remain without Connor Brown, further thinning forward depth.

Dive deeper into team performance with the NHL team page.

Can Dallas Make History or Fall Again?

In NHL history, teams down 3-1 in a best-of-seven series come back to win just 7% of the time (23 out of 346 series). That’s a harsh reality the Stars are staring in the face.

But it’s not just the math — it’s the form. The Stars haven’t looked like themselves. The offense is stale, the urgency hasn’t matched Edmonton’s hunger, and if they don’t flip that script fast, it’s curtains.

Visit the NHL Central Division blog to track Dallas’ postseason history and odds.

Edmonton’s Experience Could Be the Deciding Factor

The Oilers core — McDavid, Draisaitl, Nurse, Nugent-Hopkins — have all been here before. They’ve tasted the pressure of deep playoff runs and now sit poised to make a second straight Stanley Cup Final.

That kind of experience matters.

Momentum on Their Side

Seven straight games with the first goal scored is no fluke. Edmonton is jumping on opponents early and making them chase. That’s playoff hockey 101.

Want a broader breakdown of all contenders? Explore NHL Conference Winner Odds.

FAQs

How bad is the Stars’ scoring drought?

Dallas has only scored two goals over the last three games, both from Jason Robertson. Other top players have gone silent.

Who replaces Zach Hyman for the Oilers?

Jeff Skinner is expected to slot back in, while Edmonton leans on depth players to fill the offensive and energy gap.

What are the odds of Dallas coming back from 3-1?

Only about 7% of NHL teams manage to come back from a 3-1 series deficit historically.

Who has the edge in net?

Edmonton’s goalie tandem has looked more consistent this series, while Dallas has failed to get the key saves when needed.

Why does Edmonton score first so often?

They’ve made fast starts a priority, scoring first in seven straight games. It sets the tone and forces the opponent to adjust.

Can the Stars turn it around?

They’ll need their top six to wake up, get gritty goals, and win the special teams battle. If not, it’s a short series.

Conclusion: The Final Push or the Final Nail?

The Oilers have the talent, momentum, and mindset to finish this series. But the Stars, though down, aren’t out. Game 5 could be a statement win — or a final bow — for Dallas.

It’s desperation versus discipline. Firepower versus frustration. Can the Stars save their season, or will Edmonton return to the Stanley Cup Final?

Stay updated on division dynamics via the NHL Pacific, Atlantic, and Metropolitan blogs.

Dallas Stars vs Edmonton Oilers Picks and Predictions May 29th 2025