The 2024 Paris Summer Olympics Women’s Basketball Odds and Predictions

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The Opening Ceremony for the 2024 Paris Summer Olympics are set for July 26, and the Games will officially get underway shortly thereafter. One of the highly anticipated events will be the women’s basketball competition. The 12-team field is official, which means you can get your bets placed on the tournament before it tips off.

While the Americans are heavy -390 favorites in the men’s tournament, Team USA is an even heavier favorite on the women’s side. Will the US breeze their way to the gold medal? Or, will a dark horse come out of nowhere and stage one of the biggest Olympic upsets of all-time?

Below, I’ll break down the odds for each team participating in the tournament and assess their chances of clinching the top spot on the podium.

Olympic Women’s Basketball Odds

Olympic OddsOlympic Odds
United States (-1800)China (+2500)
France (+3000)Belgium (+3000)
Australia (+3000)Japan (+3000)
Canada (+3500)Spain (+3500)
Serbia (+8000)Germany (+10000)
Puerto Rico (+15000)Nigeria (+20000)

USA (-1800)

The USA women’s basketball team is the clear favorite to win the gold medal at the 2024 Paris Olympics with odds of -1800. If betting on the Olympics, you’ll have to put $1,800 on the line just to win $100 back if the Americans claim the gold. Needless to say, there isn’t a whole lot of profit potential to be found by betting on a massive favorite like this.

Historically, the USA has been dominant in women’s basketball, thanks to their wealth of talent. The US women have played at 11 Summer Olympics in their history. They’ve won gold in 8 of those appearances. They settled for the silver in 1976 and the bronze in 1992. Team USA has finished atop the podium at each of the last 7 Olympics dating back to 1996. Needless to say, they’ve been even more dominant than their male counterparts over the last couple of decades.

The Americans generated some controversy earlier this year when it was announced that Caitlin Clark – the most famous player on the planet – would be left off the Olympic roster. Clark would have brought some eyeballs to the tournament had she been included, but Team USA decided to go with a more experienced group for these Games.

Even without Clark, the Americans have an embarrassment of riches. A’ja Wilson of the Las Vegas Aces is one of the headliners, but former WNBA MVPs Breanna Stewart are also headed to Paris. The US will have a legitimate 3-point threat in Sabrina Ionescu, while opposing defenses will have their hands full against the 6’8″ Brittney Griner.

The roster includes several WNBA stars who bring significant skill and leadership to the team. The issue with betting on Team USA to win the gold is that you won’t make much of a profit with the current -1800 odds.

China (+2500)

China comes in with odds of +2500, suggesting a strong, yet uncertain chance compared to the USA. A $100 bet on China would yield a $2,500 profit if they win gold.

China has had very limited success on the Olympic stage in the past. They’ve only medaled twice in 9 appearances at the Olympics, and the next time they take home the gold will be the first. China won the silver medal back in 1992 in Barcelona, while they claimed the bronze back in 1984.

Success has been more elusive for the Chinese at recent Games, however. China hasn’t finished better than 4th at any Olympics since 1992, while they haven’t finished better than 5th in any of their last 3 appearances.

The Chinese team has shown consistent improvement in recent years, with a mix of experienced players and young talent. Their strength lies in their disciplined play and defensive capabilities. For China to overcome the odds and win gold, they will need to perform exceptionally well, particularly against more talented teams like the USA.

France (+3000)

France, with odds of +3000, is another strong contender. A $100 bet on France would result in a $3,000 profit. The French team benefits from having the home-court advantage with the games taking place in Paris, which could play a significant role.

France has become a powerhouse on the men’s side, but they have a far more limited track record in the women’s game. Les Bleues have only appeared at the Summer Olympics 4 times. They have medaled twice in those 4 tries, though. France took home the silver back in 2012 before winning the bronze at the most recent games in 2020.

France slumped to a dismal 7th-place showing at the 2022 FIBA Women’s World Cup, however. Like most of the teams in this tournament, France also doesn’t have a single player currently on a WNBA roster. To secure the gold, France will need to capitalize on their home advantage and deliver consistent, high-level performances throughout the tournament. I’m a little skeptical of their chances, and I think their +3000 odds are higher than they should be.

Belgium (+3000)

Belgium, also at +3000 odds, is a team with a potential for an upset. Similar to France, a $100 bet on Belgium would return $3,000 if they win gold. The Belgian team has been rising in international rankings, thanks to their cohesive play and impressive teamwork.

Belgium isn’t at all a factor in the men’s game. This tiny nation has produced just 2 NBA players in history – Toumani Camara and DJ Mbenga. While the women’s team first appeared at an international tournament way back in 1950, most of their success has come in recent years. Belgium won the European Championship back in 2023, while they finished 3rd in both 2017 and 2021.

Belgium’s first Olympic appearance came back in 2020 in Tokyo, where they finished 7th. They took 4th at the 2018 FIBA Women’s World Cup in 2018 and 5th in 2022. While this looks like a team on the rise, I’m still highly skeptical of their chances of actually beating a team as stacked as Team USA. I don’t think the likelihood of winning gold is all that great.

Australia (+3000)

Australia’s Olympic women’s basketball odds are set at +3000, offering a lucrative return for bettors. Of the 4 teams priced at +3000, I think Australia has the best chance to make some real noise in this tournament.

The Aussies – nicknamed the Opals – have medaled in half of their 10 previous appearances at the Summer Olympics. However, the gold medal has proven to be elusive. The Opals picked up 3 straight silver medals between 2000 and 2008. They also snagged the bronze in 1996 and 2012.

Australia is led by Lauren Jackson, easily the most decorated player in the history of women’s hoops in this country. Jackson is now 43, however, and this will be her 5th Olympic appearance. She was the 1st overall pick of the Seattle Storm way back in 2001, and her incredible résumé includes 3 WNBA MVP awards, a WNBA Finals MVP award, a Defensive Player of the Year award, and 7 WNBA All-Star appearances. Jackson actually retired back in 2016 before returning to the hardwood in 2022.

While Jackson is still a solid player, it’s worth wondering whether a 43-year-old can keep the Aussies afloat against more talented competition.

Japan (+3000)

Japan checks in with +3000 odds to claim the gold in Paris this summer. The Japanese team is known for their speed and efficient shooting, particularly from beyond the arc.

This team took home the silver medal after losing to the USA in the final round in Tokyo back in 2020. They had home-court advantage, of course, and it was easily their best showing at this event. In fact, that was their first and only Olympic medal in 5 all-time appearances at the Games. Japan struggled at the 2022 FIBA Women’s World Cup, however, finishing 9th.

Any team as capable from 3-point range as Japan is could be a threat to medal, but I’m expecting them to struggle compared to how they fared back in 2020.

Canada (+3500)

Canada’s odds of +3500 suggest a promising yet uncertain path to gold. A $100 bet on Canada would yield a $3,500 profit if they somehow pull off the gold.

As is the case with the men’s team, the Canadian women’s group has been improving steadily. Several players have made a significant impact in international competitions. The headliner is WNBA rookie Aaliyah Edwards, who went 6th overall in the 2024 WNBA draft to the Washington Mystics. The UConn product has posted modest averages of 8.6 points and 6 rebounds per game in her first pro campaign, but she’ll play a much more significant role offensively for her national side.

At +3500, Canada make for an intriguing long-shot bet.

Spain (+3500)

Spain, also at +3500 odds, has a storied history in international women’s basketball. A $100 bet on Spain would turn a $3,500 profit if they secure the gold.

The Spanish team has 4 gold medals at EuroBasket, but that success hasn’t quite translated to the Olympic stage. Spain has medaled once – a silver in 2016 – in 5 all-time Olympic outings. They’ve failed to finish higher than 5th in any of their other 4 trips to the Games.

Their ability to control the tempo of the game and execute strategic plays makes them a tough opponent. Spain will need to rely on their experience and tactical acumen to navigate the tournament and aim for the top spot. Canada look like the better bet at the same +3500 women’s basketball odds, however.

Serbia (+8000)

Serbia, with odds of +8000, offers a high-risk, high-reward option. A $100 bet on Serbia would net $8,000 if they win gold.

Nikola Jokic ain’t walking through that door, though. This will be just the 3rd Olympic appearance for Serbia, though they did make several appearances when they were known as Yugoslavia/Serbia and Montenegro prior to 2007. Serbia claimed the bronze medal back in 2016.

Germany (+10000)

Germany’s odds of +10000 make them a long shot for the gold medal. A $100 bet on Germany would result in a gargantuan $10,000 profit if they somehow win. The German team, while not among the top favorites, brings a disciplined and strategic approach to the game.

For a nation with such a storied sporting history, the German women have been oddly weak over the years. This will be the 1st-ever Olympic appearance for Germany, and they’ll enter the tournament ranked 19th in the world. Germany have participated in EuroBasket 16 times, yet a bronze medal in 1997 remains their best finish.

This team likely sucks. Taking a gamble on their +10000 odds looks like a good way to flush money down the toilet.

Puerto Rico (+15000)

Puerto Rico, with odds of +15000, is one of the biggest long shots. A $100 bet on Puerto Rico would yield a $15,000 profit if they win gold.

This will be the Puerto Ricans’ 2nd straight appearance at the Summer Olympics. They’ll look to improve upon their 2020 showing when they lost all 3 of their group games and finished dead-last in the standings. Puerto Rico were also ousted from the group stage at the 2018 FIBA World Cup before making a run to the quarterfinals in 2022.

Nigeria (+20000)

Nigeria, with odds of +20000, is the ultimate underdog in the tournament. A $100 bet on Nigeria would result in a $20,000 profit if they pull off the upset.

D’Tigress has qualified for the Olympics 3 times overall, including this year. They finished just 1-5 in the group stage in their maiden voyage in Athens back in 2004. Nigeria lost all 3 of their games in Tokyo 2020, as well.

Given their 1-8 all-time Olympic record and the fact that they face the longest odds of any team in the competition, Nigeria looks like a very easy fade.

Who Will Win the Gold Medal?

Analyzing the odds and strengths of each team, it is clear that the USA is the overwhelming favorite due to their depth, talent, and experience. Frankly, it will be a surprise if the Americans lose a single game. I’d be willing to wager on the chances they win every single game by 20+ points, as well. There’s just a massive gulf in talent between the American roster and that of any other team in the event.

In conclusion, while the USA is the safest bet, teams like Canada and Australia offer more attractive odds for bettors looking for a higher payout. Australia’s track record makes them an intriguing bet, while Canada looks like a team on the rise.

Ultimately, betting on the Olympics requires balancing the odds with the potential for an upset. My favorite bet, considering both the odds and team potential, is Canada at +3500, offering a good balance of risk and reward. The risk likely outweighs the reward, but you never know. Perhaps Team USA will eat some bad escargot and come down with a team-wide sickness right before the Games.

Betting on any team but Team USA feels like a good way to lose, but Canada could be worth a low-dollar flier if you’re feeling particularly frisky.

Olympics Bet: Canada (+3500)
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Kody Miller
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