The 112^th edition of the Tour de France rolls out of Lille, France, on Saturday, July 5. This Grande Depart kicks off another epic GC battle for the Yellow Jersey (maillott jaune) competition in cycling’s biggest race of the year. It also marks an entertaining battle for the Points Classification, also known as the Green Jersey competition.

Last year, Biniam Girmay exceeded all expectations by winning three stages and the Green Jersey. He outclassed the 2023 winner of this competition Jasper Philipsen.

Both men will be in France for this year’s Tour, and both cyclists are considered among the betting favorites to win the Green Jersey. However, the sprinter’s field is deep at the Tour this year, so it will definitely be more than just a two-man battle.

Let’s take a look at the latest TDF odds and make our 2025 Tour de France Green Jersey predictions.

What is the Green Jersey in the Tour de France?

The Green Jersey is one of the most distinguished jersey competitions in the Tour de France. Along with the Yellow Jersey (General Classification), White Jersey (Best Young Rider), and Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains), the Green Jersey represents the rider with the most points throughout the Tour de France.

The Green Jersey, also known as the Points Classification or the Sprinters Jersey, was first introduced in 1953. The jersey’s green color was initially chosen because of its sponsor La Belle Jardiniere, which was a French clothing store in the 1950s.

The cyclist with the most points at the end of the Tour, wins this competition. The first 15 riders to finish on a stage, or intermediate sprint, will earn points. These points are scored as follows:

• Flat stages: 50, 30, 20 points all the way down to 2 points for 15^th place
• Hilly stages: 30, 25, 22 points all the way down to 2 points for 15^th place
• Mountain stages: 20, 17, 15 points all the way down to 1 point for 15^th place
• Individual Time Trials: 20, 17, 15 points all the way down to 1 point for 15^th place
• Intermediate sprint: 20, 17, 15 points all the way down to 1 point for 15^th place

Tour de France Green Jersey Odds

Check out the latest Tour de France Green Jersey odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites:

There are a handful of cyclists with credible odds to win the Green Jersey. After that, the betting lines fall off a cliff. Jonathan Milan is the odds-on favorite to win this competition. However, there are at least three other men that will battle Milan to Paris for this jersey. And, they offer better value as well.

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Tour de France Green Jersey Contenders

The following cyclists are considered the main contenders to challenge for the Green Jersey competition:

Jonathan Milan (+225)    

The Italian sprinter enters this year’s Tour de France as the odds-on favorite to win the Green Jersey battle. This will be his first ever appearance in the Tour de France and Milan is poised for success in the biggest spotlight in the sport.

Milan already has seven wins on the year. All of them coming in stage races from the UAE Tour to the Criterium du Dauphine. He also finished 2^nd at Classic Burgge-De Panne and third at Gent-Wevelgem.

The 24-year-old star is one of the top ranked sprinters heading into the 2025 TDF and in great shape.

Milan has already captured two Point Classifications in Grand Tour racing as he won these competitions in the 2023 and 2024 Giro d’Italia events.

Jasper Philipsen (+350)

Jasper Philipsen is a nine-stage winner at the Tour de France and captured the Green Jersey in 2023. He finished runner up to Girmay last year in this competition.

Philipsen is on the same team as Mathieu van der Poel, which makes this Alpecin-Deceuninck team a dangerous one for stage wins and the Points Classification. They could easily snatch sprint stages along with hilly days due to those two men.

However, as you can see in the odds, Philipsen is more of a favorite than MVDP because of his sprinting capabilities. The Belgian has two wins on the year with his most recent coming a few weeks ago in the Belgium Tour. He also has a plethora of Top 3 finishes throughout his limited season to date.

Over the last three years, Philipsen has ascended to the top of the sport as the best sprinter. However, he will be challenged for this crown by Milan and others. Yet, during that span, the Belgian star has nine stage wins and 21 Top 10s. He will definitely be a contender this month in France for the Green Jersey.

Mathieu van der Poel (+500)    

Mathieu van der Poel is one of the most exciting cyclists in the sport today. His battles with Tadej Pogacar in the Spring Classics were epic. In fact, he was really the only man that could defeat the Slovenian this year.

MVDP has four wins on the season to date, as he won the Ename Samyn Classic, Milano-San Remo, E3 Saxo Classic, and Paris-Roubaix. He took off for two months before coming back to compete at the Criterium du Dauphine to prepare for the Tour. MVDP finished 2^nd in the points classification at Dauphine.

As much as I love watching MVDP, and the next man on this list, I don’t see van der Poel winning the Green Jersey competition. In his four appearances to date, van der Poel has just one stage win and five Top 10s on stages.

More than likely, we will see MVPD as a key rider in the team’s lead-out train for Philipsen, which makes Jasper even more dangerous when someone with the horsepower of van der Poel is leading the sprint.

Wout Van Aert (+600)

There was a time when I would pick Wout van Aert to win this competition without hesitation. Unfortunately for one of my favorite cyclists, that time has come and gone.

WVA is still a tremendous cyclist and capable of winning stages in this year’s Tour de France. But it appears that he will enter the Tour at less than 100% due to an illness.

Furthermore, he last won the Green Jersey in 2022, and has not looked like himself for most of this season to date. Van Aert has just one win this year and it came in the Giro d’Italia where he finished 3^rd in the Points Classification.

He was outsprinted in a number of Spring races this year including events like the Tour of Flanders, Paris-Roubaix, De Brabantse Pijl and the Amstel Gold Race.

WVA will be a key cog in the Team Visma plans this year as they try to defeat Pogacar like in 2022 and 2023. Unfortunately, that means more of a support role and less of a Green Jersey contender.

Tadej Pogacar (+600)      

If there’s one cyclist who can do it all, it’s Tadej Pogacar. As a longtime fan of Jumbo-Visma/ Team Visma, I was not fond of Pogacar at first. Especially when he took the Tour from Roglic on the final weekend.

However, since then, I have grown to love watching this man compete in any race. He’s the best since Eddie Merckx and it would be incredible if he could win both the Yellow and Green Jerseys this year.

With that said, I doubt it happens since the sprinters will snag intermediate points and flat stage wins where Pogacar will be battling for the mountain stage finishes and time trials.

If these odds were like +1500 or higher, then I would say to take a flier but they’re too low and not worth the risk.

Tim Merlier (+600)

This year marks the first time that Tim Merlier has raced in the Tour de France since his only appearance of 2021, where he won a stage but only completed nine days in the Grand Tour.

However, he enters the 2025 TDF with the most wins among sprints this year with 10. That’s right, Merlier has 10 wins which should have made him the odds-on favorite. Yet, the oddsmakers feel that Milan is the man to beat.

Merlier is the top sprinter for Soudal-QuickStep, which sends a loaded squad looking for both the Green Jersey and the Yellow Jersey with Remco Evenepoel.

It should be noted that Merlier has also outsprinted both Milan and Philipsen in head-to-head battles this year including recently at the Belgian Tour. They also went at it in the UAE Tour where Merlier got the better of the other two men.

If you are looking at just stats, then Merlier is the man to beat. He also has a strong team as well. It will be interesting to see if his lead-out train will be as good as Philipsen’s and Milan’s.

Biniam Girmay (+1000)

The reigning Green Jersey winner has yet to win a race this season. In fact, he doesn’t even look to be in great form like years past. Even in smaller events, Biniam Girmay still failed to win a stage or a Green Jersey competition.

As enjoyable as it was to root for him last year, I don’t see this year’s Tour being as productive for him. Between his subpar form and a weak lead-out train, Girmay will be lucky to finish in the Top 5 for this competition.

Arnaud De Lie +6600

For Arnaud de Lie, the 2025 season has not been a great one so far. He’s taken a lot of heat for subpar results which includes just one win on the year heading into the Tour de France.

In the Tour, he’s yet to win a stage, but did finish second on two different stages last year. Lotto’s sprinter will need some luck on his side, but of all the longshots, de Lie is definitely the one worthy of a flier for the risk takers out there.

Tour de France Green Jersey Predictions

I believe that the Green Jersey competition will come down to three men: Milan, Merlier and Philipsen. All three have been the top sprinters this year and have battled each other on many occasions this season.

Merlier has gotten the better of the other two men more than once. He also has more wins than both of them. Yet, at 32, it’s hard to imagine that he will outperform the younger guys in this three-week race.

Milan is in his first Tour de France and has an incredible team. He also has seven wins and is in great form. But it’s hard for me to bet against Philipsen with van der Poel on his lead-out train.

Philipsen has the edge in TDF experience, was second last year in this competition, and I think has the better lead-out train than Milan and Merlier. He also offers slightly better value than Milan.

Bet: Jasper Philipsen (+350)

Recent Tour de France Green Jersey Winners

Peter Sagan won the most Green Jersey competitions with seven, after besting the previous record holder Erik Zabel with six. If you had the pleasure of watching Sagan race in the Tour de France during his prime, you will know why this jersey is unofficially dubbed the “Peter Sagan jersey.” He also holds the record for most days in the Green Jersey at 130 days.

The following is a list of the most recent Tour de France Green Jersey Winners: