2024 Tour De France Green Jersey Odds and Predictions

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The 111th edition of the Tour de France rolls out of Florence, Italy, on Saturday, June 29. This Grande Depart marks the first time that the Tour has begun in Italy. It also marks an entertaining battle for the Green Jersey competition. 

Last year, Jasper Philipsen smashed the field to easily win the Green Jersey as he finished 119 points ahead of the second-place rider. This year, Philipsen is the large odds-on favorite to win the Green Jersey competition for a second straight Tour. 

Let’s take a look at the latest cycling odds, examine how to bet on the Tour de France, and make our 2024 Tour de France Green Jersey Odds predictions.

What is the Green Jersey in the Tour de France?

The Green Jersey is one of the most distinguished jersey competitions in the Tour de France. Along with the Yellow Jersey (General Classification), White Jersey (Best Young Rider), and Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains), the Green Jersey represents the rider with the most points throughout the Tour de France. 

Unlike the Yellow Jersey competition, which is for the overall race win, the Green Jersey represents riders who have earned points on each stage. The cyclist with the most points at the end of the Tour, wins this competition. 

The Green Jersey, also known as the Points Classification or the Sprinters Jersey, was first introduced in 1953. The jersey’s green color was initially chosen because of its sponsor La Belle Jardiniere, which was a French clothing store in the 1950s. 

The first 15 riders to finish on a stage, or intermediate sprint, will earn points. These points are scored as follows: 

  • Flat stages: 50, 30, 20 points all the way down to 2 points for 15th place
  • Hilly stages: 30, 25, 22 points all the way down to 2 points for 15th place
  • Mountain stages: 20, 17, 15 points all the way down to 1 point for 15th place
  • Individual Time Trials: 20, 17, 15 points all the way down to 1 point for 15th place
  • Intermediate sprint: 20, 17, 15 points all the way down to 1 point for 15th place

Tour de France Green Jersey Odds

Check out the latest Tour de France Green Jersey odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites:

Green Jersey OddsGreen Jersey Odds
Jasper Philipsen -175Wout Van Aert +500
Mads Pedersen +600Arnaud De Lie +900
Bryan Coquard +1400Tadej Pogacar +1400
Arnaud Demare +3300Fabio Jakobsen +3300
Mark Cavendish +3300Sam Bennett +3300

2023 Tour de France Green Jersey Winner

  • Jasper Philipsen: 377 points
  • Mads Pedersen: 258 points
  • Bryan Coquard: 203 points
  • Tadej Pogacar: 186 points
  • Jonas Vingegaard: 128 points

Tour de France Green Jersey Favorites

The following cyclists are considered the odds-on favorites to win the Green Jersey competition:

Jasper Philipsen -175

As mentioned above, Jasper Philipsen is a large betting favorite to win the Green Jersey competition. This will be his 5th appearance in the Tour de France and he already has six stage wins on his resume. Last year, Philipsen won four stages and narrowly missed out on two additional stage victories. 

This year, the Alpecin-Deceuninck rider has already picked up four wins on the season. His most notable victory of the season so far, was winning Milano-Sanremo. A second-place finish in Paris-Roubaix is impressive as well. Most recently, he was second in the Belgian National Road Race and won the Green Jersey for the Baloise Belgium Tour. 

The biggest news for Philipsen and his team entering the Tour is that the sport’s top sprinter signed a four-year extension with Alpecin-Deceuninck:

“I have been with the team since 2021 and I feel good here. We have the same mindset and goals here, and I feel at home. I made the decision a while ago. Something like that is not obvious, it takes some time. But it is an obvious choice to stay.”

Now, both the team and the sprinter can focus on winning Tour de France stages and another Green Jersey without the distractions of rumors and speculations over transferring to a new team. 

This really is Philipsen’s jersey to lose. And, yet, there are some other sprinters who could give him a run for the green both literally and figuratively.

Wout Van Aert +500

Wout van Aert, of Visma-Lease a Bike is a former Green Jersey winner having won this competition in 2022. He ended up leaving the 2023 Tour de France early due to the birth of his second child. Van Aert was in the hunt for Green Jersey contention last year, but came up short in winning a few stages before his departure. 

Van Aert is coming off an injury due to a crash and wasn’t even originally tabbed for the Tour de France this year. He was going to race in the Giro d’Italia and then the Paris Olympics where he’s one of the race favorites for gold.

Following his suspect conditioning, Wout returned for the Belgian road race championships and finished 5th. Van Aert made the following declaration after the race:

 “I’m not at my top level yet, but it’s reassuring that I was among the best again. I’m happy with my feeling on the bike. The legs felt fine. In the last kilometre I was a bit too far, so I had to waste too much energy to move up. I can live with fifth place.”

If van Aert reaches his top level in the Tour de France, then the rest of the field is in trouble. He’s one of the only riders that can win all disciplines: sprints, mountains and time trials. Additionally, he can win from a breakaway or a bunch sprint. A van Aert being among the best again, is trouble for Philipsen and others when it comes to the Green Jersey competition. 

My only question is whether he’s more focused on the Tour or winning a gold medal at the Paris Olympics. 

Mads Pedersen +600

Last year, Mads Pedersen finished second in this competition. Pedersen will be the first to say that he’s not a true sprinter. If anything, he’s a fast cyclist when there’s a hill or gradient at the end of the stage. According to race organizers, there’s eight flat stages in this year’s Tour, which gives the sprinters multiple tries at stage victories. 

Pedersen will be the focal point of Lidl-Trek as their main GC rider Teo Geoghegan Hart will miss the Tour due to an illness. So, the team aims to help Pederson win stages. That bodes well for his chances in this Points Classification. 

On the year, Pedersen has six wins. His biggest victory was Gent-Wevelgem in March. However, Pedersen also finished 4th at Milano-Sanremo and 3rd at Paris-Roubaix. 

Best Tour de France Green Jersey Betting Value

When I first saw the Green Jersey odds, I was stunned that Fabio Jakobsen (+3300) was listed so low. When healthy, he’s one of the fastest sprinters in the field. Unfortunately, that’s his biggest hurdle – staying healthy. 

The Team DSM-Firmenich PostNL sprinter continues to suffer crashes that ruin his chances at Grand Tour wins. He crashed out of last year’s Tour de France and suffered the same fate in the 2024 Giro d’Italia. 

For the season, Jakobsen has just one victory and that came back on a stage in April. Nevertheless, his team is focused on winning stages for the sprinter, Romain Bardet and Oscar Onley. With a squad searching for stage wins, Jakobsen should have the support needed to compete against the top sprinters. 

Despite his terrible crash last year and forced departure, Jakobsen has won a stage in the Tour before. That victory came in 2022, where he finished 5th in the Points Classification. He’s also won five stages in the Vuelta a Espana. So, Jakobsen has the talent to compete at the highest of levels, he just needs to stay out of trouble. 

The Top Tour de France Green Jersey Longshot

One of my favorite cyclists ever, I’m going to be anxiously cheering for Mark Cavendish (+3300) at this year’s tour. The greatest sprinter of all-time will line-up in Florence for his 15th and final Tour de France. Cavendish decided to delay his retirement for one more chance at breaking the Tour record for stage wins at 35. 

Currently, Cavendish is tied with The GOAT Eddy Merckx at 34 stage wins apiece. For his career, Cavendish has over 160 wins. Heading into this Tour, he has a team that will support him, which hasn’t always been the case over the last few years. 

Astana Qazaqstan is focused on Cavendish breaking this record. In fact, they have put together a lead-out train that should help Cavendish compete for stage wins. Michael Morkov, Cees Bol and Davide Ballerini are all fast riders that will help put the “Manx Missile” into proper position at the end of stages. All too often, Cavendish had to freelance on his own due to poor lead-out trains. 

With a strong lead-out, a team that’s supporting him, and recently being knighted, this year’s tour has the makings of a fairy-tale ending for Cavendish. So, why not add the Green Jersey competition to it as well? 

Tour de France Green Jersey Head To Head Matchups

The following Tour de France prop bets are courtesy of Bet365 and they require you to pick which cyclist will finish higher in the Green Jersey standings at the end of the three-week race: 

Arnaud de Lie (+150) vs. Mads Pederson (-200)

Anaud de Lie is making his first ever Tour de France appearance. The 22-year-old is a highly talented sprinter who has four victories on the year. His biggest win was at the Belgian championships where he beat out Philipsen, van Aert, and Tim Merlier. 

The Belgian showed that he’s in great form coming into the Tour and has the legs to race against the top sprinters in the sport today. As for this H2H matchup, it’s a tough one for de Lie because Pederson has proven that he’s a capable Tour de France winner. He also has a team supporting his ambitions this year. 

I believe that de Lie is going to turn some heads this July in France. Will he be able to do enough to finish ahead of Pederson in the standings? 

Unless, he can consistently finish in the Top 5 on flat stages, it’s hard to see him finishing better than Pederson who will get at least one stage win this year. There’s no value with Pederson, but he’s poised for another Top 3 finish in this competition. 

TDF Bet: Mads Pederson (-200)

Tour de France Green Jersey Predictions 

I want nothing more than to turn back the hands of time and see Mark Cavendish win his third career Tour de France Green Jersey. Unfortunately, the 39-year-old will be lucky to win a stage, which we’re all hoping for. 

This Green Jersey race will come down to crashes, but I expect Philipsen to outlast his fellow sprinters partly because he’s the one that causes most of these crashes. If you don’t believe me, go back and watch season two of Tour de France Unchained on Netflix. It painted an unflattering picture of Philipsen during last year’s Tour. 

His odds are only going to get worse, so it’s best to take Philipsen now and then bet on other sprinters during various stages of the Tour. This is the safest approach as Philipsen’s speed is unmatched in the peloton. However, it doesn’t mean he will win all the bunch sprints or all the flat stages. 

Nevertheless, Philipsen will etch his name in Tour de France history with a second consecutive Green Jersey victory. 

TDF Bet: Jasper Philipsen -175

Rider To Win 3+ Tour de France Stages Prop Bet

  • Jasper Philipsen -225
  • Tadej Poacar -225
  • Remco Evenepoel +250
  • Jonas Vingegaard +250
  • Wout van Aert +700

A big reason why Jasper Philipsen will win the Green Jersey is because he will be victorious on at least three stages. Currently, this Bet365 prop bet has the sprinter tied with Pogacar for the most stage victories in this year’s Tour. 

It’s certainly shaping up for both men to put their stamps on this year’s Grand Tour race. However, I like Philipsen’s chances to win at least three stages better than Pogacar who will have greater competition. 

For this prop bet, take Philipsen as he could pick up as many as six stage wins if they all end in bunch sprints like many predict. 

TDF Bet: Jasper Philipsen -225

Previous Tour de France Green Jersey Winners

There’s a reason why this jersey has also been unofficially dubbed the “Peter Sagan jersey” because he holds the record for the most wins with seven. He bested the previous all-time mark of six by Erik Zabel. Sagan also holds the record for most days in the Green Jersey with 130. Zabel is second with 89 days. 

The following is a list of the previous Tour de France Green Jersey Winners:

YearGreen Jersey Winner
2023Jasper Philipsen
2022Wout van Aert
2021Mark Cavendish
2020Sam Bennett
2019Peter Sagan
2018Peter Sagan
2017Michael Matthews
2016Peter Sagan
2015Peter Sagan
2014Peter Sagan
2013Peter Sagan
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Rick Rockwell
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With over 20 years of sports writing experience, Rick has covered every major organization or event from the NFL to the UFL, the Tour de France to the French Open, and SummerSlam to slamming down Hot Dogs on the 4th of July. The only thing that can match his passion for sports is his love for pizza.