This is a good question; a legitimate question. And it deserves a thoughtful answer.
When I heard that this fight had been made (for August 21 in Las Vegas, by the way), I immediately, for whatever reason, thought of the climactic scene in a movie called “And Justice For All,” where Al Pacino, who was defending a respected judge on a rape charge, made an opening statement in which he was expressing curiosity as to why the alleged victim would lie about her story. He went over what the various reasons there could be, as the judge sat listening in a rather arrogant posture. If you were sitting there watching the scene, you were probably wondering about the motivation yourself.
Pacquiao vs. Spence Betting Lines
Okay, we’ll get back to that in a minute. So now I’m thinking, Manny Pacquiao, presumably well past his prime, has signed to fight Errol Spence, who might just be one of the world’s best pound-for-pound fighters – good enough, in fact, that at boxing bookies, Spence is the -200 favorite (with Pacquiao at +160).
I was looking for the catch, the angle, the loophole. There had to be a hole in this story, right? Some “smoke and mirrors” at work.
After all, the guy is 42 and hasn’t fought in two years. And he is going up against probably the toughest guy he could possibly fight, given the circumstances. A guy who is undefeated and hasn’t looked bad or sufficiently suspect in the process.
Spence is much better than Jeff Horn, who Pacquiao lost to in 2017, and he’s better than all the guys Manny has fought since – Adrien Broner, Lucas Matthysse and Keith Thurman.
Remember that Pacquiao is enough of an attraction, even at this stage of his career, that he can do pretty much whatever he wants to do as far as picking opponents is concerned. He probably could, if he wanted to, find someone with “name” value comparable to Spence who is not as difficult a challenge.
But he didn’t.
He could have also fought a “gimmick” fight, and in all honesty, it was something he was seriously considering. And for that reason, it was a little disingenuous for him to go on podcasts and criticize other fighters (a Mayweather knock was obviously implied) for fighting “non-boxers.” Of course, the only reason for him to have signed any kind of deal with the Paradigm management group was because they also managed Conor McGregor, and they could facilitate what would amount to a nine-figure deal between the two for a fight.
As bettors know, however, McGregor lost to Dustin Poirier, not once but twice, and talk of that bout is gone with the wind, although there are lawsuits flying between Pacquiao and Paradigm over what rights PacMan may have signed away when he accepted that management deal.
Pacquiao could have also gone into the “exhibition market,” which seems pretty hot these days, and that could have brought him tremendous opportunities, including something lucrative in a no-decision bout with Mayweather. No doubt that would be just a matter of settling on the numbers.
But while Floyd is arranging eight-rounders with Logan Paul, where he may or may not have been trying too hard, Pacquiao is really putting something on the line. We’re not talking about his title belt; who in the public even cares what title he holds. By now, he’s bigger than alphabet soup.
We’re talking about – and excuse us for using a rather overused word – a legacy. He can lose something here, if he is non-competitive. Or he can gain a great deal more prestige if he could beat someone who is so formidable on a world scale.
And incidentally, he wants the recognition from the WBA anyway. So I guess there’s some old-school philosophy at work here too – the championship belt actually DOES mean something.
Now back to “And Justice For All.” Having exhausted all other possibilities, the Pacino character declares to the jury something he already knows. And it is really the simplest conclusion anyway. The accuser wasn’t lying.
And our conclusion about Pacquiao is the simplest one – he wants to fight the best guy available… period.
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