MLB MVP Odds and Predictions 2026: Alvarez and Crow-Armstrong Lead

Your next pick starts here.

Check the board, compare the options, and find the picks you like.

View Picks!

MLB MVP Odds and Predictions feature one dominant American League favorite and a National League race that has become almost impossible to separate. Yordan Alvarez is priced between approximately -1000 and -1500 after taking control of nearly every major AL offensive category.

Pete Crow-Armstrong has moved slightly ahead of Shohei Ohtani at several sportsbooks after the Chicago Cubs swept the Los Angeles Dodgers. Other books list the two stars as co-favorites, creating the closest MVP market in baseball.

Alvarez remains our AL MVP prediction because his Triple Crown-level production has created substantial separation from Junior Caminero, Ben Rice and the rest of the field. Crow-Armstrong is our updated NL prediction because he combines comparable offensive production to Ohtani with elite center-field defense, 28 stolen bases and the National League’s strongest position-player value.

MLB MVP Odds and Predictions Update

The latest MLB MVP Odds and Predictions show two completely different award markets. Alvarez has turned the AL into a race for second place, while Crow-Armstrong and Ohtani are trading favorite status in the NL.

The AL market is difficult to enter at the favorite price. Alvarez has earned his position, but a bettor laying -1500 must risk $1,500 to win $100. Caminero and Rice offer larger payouts, but both need Alvarez to slow down significantly.

The NL market is more attractive because Crow-Armstrong and Ohtani can both be found close to even money. The winner may be determined by Ohtani’s pitching availability and whether Crow-Armstrong maintains his elite combination of offense, defense and baserunning.

Bettors can compare current futures with daily moneylines, run lines and totals through the ScoresAndStats MLB odds page.

How MLB MVP Voting Works

The Baseball Writers’ Association of America selects one Most Valuable Player in each league. Thirty writers vote in the American League race and another 30 vote in the National League race.

Each voter ranks 10 players. A first-place vote is worth 14 points, while the remaining positions are worth nine, eight, seven, six, five, four, three, two and one point.

Ballots are submitted before the postseason begins. October performance does not influence the award, making every remaining regular-season game important.

There is no required statistical formula. Voters can consider offensive production, defensive value, baserunning, positional difficulty, pitching performance, Wins Above Replacement, team success and overall importance.

The word valuable also gives voters flexibility. A player does not need to appear for a postseason team, but meaningful games and a successful club can strengthen an otherwise close case.

AL MVP Odds 2026

The AL MVP Odds are dominated by Alvarez. Caminero is the clear second choice, followed by Rice, Bobby Witt Jr., Nick Kurtz and Dillon Dingler.

Alvarez has separated because he is not merely leading in one power category. He enters the update first in the AL in batting average, home runs, hits, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS while remaining tied near the top in RBI.

Caminero and Rice still have credible statistical cases, but both need to close a substantial offensive gap. Witt and Kurtz require almost perfect finishes and help from the favorite.

AL MVP Statistics Comparison

The statistical comparison explains why Alvarez is such a short favorite. Caminero and Rice are having excellent seasons, but Alvarez is producing at a different offensive level.

Alvarez has an OPS advantage of more than 150 points over Caminero and nearly 180 points over Rice. That level of separation is large enough to overcome the defensive-value disadvantage associated with spending most of the season at designated hitter.

Caminero’s power and third-base value make him the most credible alternative. Rice has a similar home run total but does not own the same batting-average, on-base or defensive argument.

Yordan Alvarez MVP Prediction

Alvarez remains our prediction to win the American League MVP Award. The Houston designated hitter is batting .329 with 35 home runs, 85 RBI and an MLB-leading OPS above 1.080.

His performance has created a realistic Triple Crown opportunity. Alvarez leads the league in batting average and home runs while remaining among the RBI leaders with nearly two months left.

Alvarez has also controlled the strike zone. His .442 on-base percentage reflects both elite contact quality and a willingness to accept walks when pitchers refuse to challenge him.

The designated-hitter role is the only meaningful weakness in the award case. Alvarez does not provide the defensive or positional value generated by Caminero, Witt or Dingler.

That disadvantage matters only when offensive production is close. It is not currently close. Alvarez has created enough separation that voters can recognize him as the league’s most valuable hitter without requiring a defensive contribution.

Team context should also help. The Houston Astros have recovered from a difficult start and moved into first place in the AL West, giving Alvarez meaningful games throughout the final two months.

ScoresAndStats AL MVP Prediction: Yordan Alvarez.

Betting Decision: Clear winner prediction, but the -1000 to -1500 price is too short for most new futures positions.

Junior Caminero Is the Best AL MVP Challenger

Caminero is the only AL player with a practical path to catching Alvarez without requiring a completely unrealistic statistical finish. He is batting .284 with 33 home runs, 71 RBI and a .932 OPS.

The Tampa Bay third baseman is only two home runs behind Alvarez and has already established himself as one of the most dangerous power hitters in baseball.

Caminero’s positional value strengthens the case. He contributes at third base rather than serving exclusively as a designated hitter, giving voters a reason to choose him if the offensive gap becomes significantly smaller.

The Tampa Bay Rays also own the best record in the American League. A division title and first-round bye would create the strongest team-success argument among the leading AL candidates.

The problem is the current offensive separation. Caminero trails Alvarez by 45 points in batting average, nearly 70 points in on-base percentage and more than 150 points in OPS.

A +650 or +700 wager therefore depends on Alvarez slowing down. Caminero can strengthen his own case, but he probably cannot close the entire gap through normal production alone.

Our Best AL Challenger: Junior Caminero at +700 or better.

Ben Rice Offers AL MVP Value

Rice is the preferred AL value option at +2500 or better. The Yankees first baseman has 31 home runs, 73 RBI and a .906 OPS during his first full season as a major offensive centerpiece.

His power has become especially important during Aaron Judge’s absence. Rice has helped New York remain in the postseason race while replacing a portion of the production lost when the defending MVP landed on the injured list.

Rice is not close enough to Alvarez to become the most likely winner, but his price is substantially larger than Caminero’s. A limited wager offers a better potential return if the favorite suffers an injury or major slump.

The weakness is the complete profile. Rice does not match Alvarez in average or on-base percentage, and first base provides less defensive value than Caminero’s position at third.

Our Best AL MVP Value Pick: Ben Rice at +2500 or better.

Other AL MVP Contenders

Bobby Witt Jr.

Witt remains the best all-around AL longshot because he combines shortstop defense with a .281 batting average and 30 stolen bases. He recently returned from the injured list, but the missed time weakened an already difficult award path.

Witt has only 13 home runs and 41 RBI. His defense and baserunning are valuable, but they cannot overcome Alvarez’s offensive lead without an extraordinary final two months.

Nick Kurtz

Kurtz owns a strong .396 on-base percentage and has recorded 21 home runs with 69 RBI. His patient approach and rookie status make him one of the most interesting players in the league.

The Athletics’ position in the standings and Kurtz’s lower home run total reduce his practical MVP path. He is more likely to receive down-ballot support than challenge Alvarez for first place.

Dillon Dingler

Dingler offers a premium-position case as a productive catcher. Catching value can create a strong WAR profile even when the offensive statistics do not match those of a designated hitter.

The long price is appropriate because Dingler needs voters to place exceptional weight on defense and positional difficulty. Alvarez’s offensive advantage remains too large for that argument to control the race.

NL MVP Odds 2026

The NL MVP Odds have changed more dramatically than any other major award market. Ohtani was priced near -1500 only a few weeks ago, but Crow-Armstrong has now moved ahead at multiple sportsbooks.

The market is effectively a two-player race. Wood, Abrams, Schwarber and Misiorowski are having excellent seasons, but each needs both Crow-Armstrong and Ohtani to lose substantial value.

The difference between the favorites is philosophical. Crow-Armstrong offers complete position-player value every day. Ohtani offers a rare two-way profile, but his pitching contribution has been unavailable since July 3.

NL MVP Statistics Comparison

Crow-Armstrong and Ohtani enter the update with almost identical offensive production. Crow-Armstrong creates additional value through defense and baserunning, while Ohtani has already contributed 14 elite pitching starts.

Crow-Armstrong and Ohtani each have 26 home runs and are separated by only one RBI. Ohtani owns the slightly better batting average and OPS, but Crow-Armstrong has stolen 22 more bases while playing one of the most demanding defensive positions.

Ohtani’s pitching line remains an enormous part of his résumé. He is 8-2 with a 1.79 ERA and 95 strikeouts through 85 2/3 innings, but he has not added to those totals in more than a month.

Pete Crow-Armstrong MVP Prediction

Crow-Armstrong is our updated prediction to win the National League MVP Award. He is batting approximately .288 with 26 home runs, 69 RBI, 28 stolen bases and a WAR total near seven.

His award case is based on complete value. Crow-Armstrong hits for power, creates runs on the bases and saves runs with elite defense in center field.

The Cubs star strengthened his case directly against Ohtani and the Dodgers. Crow-Armstrong went 6-for-13 with two home runs and five RBI during Chicago’s three-game sweep of Los Angeles.

He finished the series with a two-home-run performance and became the first player in Cubs history to record consecutive seasons with at least 25 home runs and 25 stolen bases.

The Chicago Cubs are also in a strong postseason position. Crow-Armstrong has become the central figure on a team pursuing Milwaukee in the NL Central and holding a leading Wild Card place.

The risk is Ohtani’s ability to return to the mound. Crow-Armstrong’s current position depends partly on Ohtani remaining limited to designated-hitter duty during the final two months.

ScoresAndStats NL MVP Prediction: Pete Crow-Armstrong at -110 or better.

Primary Risk: A healthy pitching return could immediately restore Ohtani’s two-way advantage.

Shohei Ohtani Remains the Biggest NL MVP Threat

Ohtani remains the most dangerous challenger and can still be found near even money. He is batting .297 with 26 home runs, 70 RBI and an OPS around .950.

His offensive production alone is comparable to Crow-Armstrong’s. The difference is that Ohtani also contributed a 1.79 ERA and 95 strikeouts before knee inflammation and right biceps discomfort removed him from the Dodgers rotation.

Ohtani has not pitched since July 3, and there is no confirmed timetable for his next start. Rebuilding a starting pitcher’s workload requires more than simply completing one throwing session.

The injuries have not affected his hitting. Ohtani recently produced two home runs in the same game that Crow-Armstrong homered twice, showing that his offensive ceiling remains intact.

Ohtani also carries extraordinary voter history. He has won four MVP awards, all unanimously, and has captured the honor in three consecutive seasons.

A fourth consecutive victory would tie Barry Bonds’ record. That history does not guarantee another award, but it confirms that voters understand how to evaluate Ohtani’s unique two-way contribution.

Our Best NL Alternative: Shohei Ohtani at +100 or better.

Winning Path: Continue matching Crow-Armstrong offensively and return to the rotation before September.

Other NL MVP Contenders

James Wood

Wood is the best offensive longshot. He has 30 home runs, 73 RBI, 100 runs and 90 walks while posting an on-base percentage near .390.

The Washington outfielder has created one of the strongest offensive profiles in the NL, but he trails both favorites in complete value. The Nationals’ position outside the leading playoff field also reduces the award narrative.

CJ Abrams

Abrams offers power, positional value and run production at shortstop. He has 28 home runs and leads the majors with 88 RBI entering the update.

The long price reflects the difficulty of passing two near-even favorites. Abrams needs an extraordinary finish and weaker closing months from Crow-Armstrong and Ohtani.

Kyle Schwarber

Schwarber remains relevant because he is tied near the top of the MLB home run leaderboard with 33. A late run toward 50 home runs could create a powerful traditional MVP narrative.

His value depends heavily on offense. Crow-Armstrong’s defense and Ohtani’s pitching create complete résumés that are difficult for a power-focused candidate to match.

The full power race is covered in the ScoresAndStats MLB home run leader odds and predictions.

Jacob Misiorowski

Misiorowski is the best pitcher in the NL MVP market. He owns a 1.63 ERA, 0.73 WHIP and an MLB-leading 195 strikeouts for the team with baseball’s best record.

Pitchers can win MVP awards, but the standard is extremely high. Misiorowski would need to maintain his historic pace while the two position-player favorites lose value.

Pete Crow-Armstrong vs. Shohei Ohtani

The NL MVP race depends on how voters compare complete everyday value with partial two-way value. Crow-Armstrong has played center field, stolen 28 bases and produced elite defense throughout the season.

Ohtani has spent most of the year at designated hitter but added 85 2/3 dominant innings. His pitching value remains part of the completed-season résumé even if he does not return to the mound.

Crow-Armstrong currently leads in WAR because his defense and baserunning create value every game. Ohtani’s combined hitting and pitching WAR remains close, but the gap could grow while he remains unable to pitch.

Crow-Armstrong has the advantage today because he is continuing to add value in every area. Ohtani can reverse the comparison quickly if he returns to the rotation and maintains his elite pitching performance.

Injuries and Team Context

Injuries have already reshaped both MVP races. Judge opened the year as the AL favorite and was trading at minus odds before suffering a stress fracture in his right rib.

Judge has resumed light activity, but the extended absence removed him from the leading MVP board. Even a strong return would leave too little time to match Alvarez’s full-season production.

Witt recently returned from the injured list, but his missed time damaged a longshot case that already depended on elite defense and baserunning.

Ohtani’s situation is different because he continues playing every day as a hitter. The knee and biceps issues have affected only the pitching side of his value, but that missing contribution is the primary reason the NL market has tightened.

Team performance can also influence close races. Alvarez is carrying an Astros team that recovered to lead the AL West, while Caminero plays for the AL East-leading Rays.

Crow-Armstrong is the centerpiece of a playoff-bound Cubs team. Ohtani remains the most recognizable star on a Dodgers club favored in the updated World Series odds and predictions.

Best MLB MVP Value Bets

The most likely winners are not necessarily the best wagers. Alvarez has the strongest AL case, but his extreme price leaves almost no room for uncertainty.

Caminero is the best direct AL challenger, but Rice offers the larger value price. A small Rice position near +2500 produces a more meaningful return if Alvarez misses time or loses his offensive separation.

The NL market offers more practical opportunities. Crow-Armstrong and Ohtani can both be backed near even money, allowing bettors to make a prediction without accepting an extreme favorite price.

Ohtani at +100 or better provides the most attractive hedge against Crow-Armstrong because one successful pitching return could move the market immediately.

• Best AL prediction: Yordan Alvarez, but avoid the extreme favorite price.
• Best AL challenger: Junior Caminero at +700 or better.
• Best AL value: Ben Rice at +2500 or better.
• Best NL prediction: Pete Crow-Armstrong near even money.
• Best NL alternative: Shohei Ohtani at +100 or better.

Previous MLB MVP Picks

The previous ScoresAndStats update selected Alvarez and Ohtani as the final MVP predictions. Alvarez has strengthened his position, while the NL prediction has changed to Crow-Armstrong.

Alvarez has continued leading the AL in the most important offensive categories. His market price has shortened from a manageable favorite number to between approximately -1000 and -1500.

Caminero remains the best AL challenger. Rice has replaced Nick Kurtz as the preferred value option because he is closer to Alvarez in home runs and run production.

Ohtani was previously the clear NL prediction. His hitting remains strong, but the extended pitching absence has allowed Crow-Armstrong to build the better current complete-player case.

Crow-Armstrong was already identified as the best non-Ohtani challenger. That position has strengthened from a longshot hedge into the updated final prediction.

Recent MLB MVP Winners

Judge and Ohtani won the 2025 awards. Judge captured his second consecutive AL MVP and third overall, while Ohtani earned his fourth MVP and third consecutive victory.

The recent results demonstrate the importance of exceptional individual production. Ohtani and Judge have dominated through historically rare seasons rather than relying exclusively on team record.

Alvarez has an opportunity to become the first Astros MVP since José Altuve in 2017. Crow-Armstrong would become the first Cubs player to win since Kris Bryant in 2016.

Final MLB MVP Odds and Predictions

Alvarez remains our final AL MVP prediction. His lead in batting average, home runs, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS is too large to ignore.

The designated-hitter role creates theoretical risk, but the offensive difference is currently strong enough to overcome it. Caminero is the only realistic direct challenger, while Rice offers the better longshot payout.

Crow-Armstrong is our updated NL MVP prediction. His offensive statistics are almost identical to Ohtani’s, and he adds elite center-field defense and 28 stolen bases.

Ohtani remains close enough to regain favorite status. A return to pitching could reverse the race, especially if he continues producing at his current offensive level.

Wood is the most credible player outside the top two, but the NL race now requires a major change before any longer-priced candidate becomes practical.

Daily player analysis, matchup predictions and game selections are available through the ScoresAndStats MLB picks page. Team positioning can be compared in the updated MLB division odds and predictions.

ScoresAndStats AL MVP Pick: Yordan Alvarez.

ScoresAndStats NL MVP Pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong near even money.

Our Best Overall MVP Value: Ben Rice at +2500 or better.

MLB MVP Odds FAQs