MLB Home Run Leader Odds and Predictions 2026: Schwarber Leads

See the picks before game time.

Check today’s board and find the matchups worth watching.

Check the Board!

MLB Home Run Leader Odds and Predictions have changed dramatically entering September. Kyle Schwarber leads the majors with 40 home runs and is the current favorite near -175, but Pete Crow-Armstrong has surged to 38 after hitting five homers across two games at the end of August.

Yordan Alvarez, Junior Caminero and Matt Olson are tied behind them with 37 home runs, while Hunter Goodman remains alive with 36. Schwarber is the ScoresAndStats prediction to finish first because he owns the lead, has a proven 50-homer ceiling and needs the chasing group to outperform him over only the final three-plus weeks.

The current -175 price is less attractive than the prediction itself. Caminero at +800 offers the better risk-to-return profile among the immediate challengers, while Goodman is the preferred longshot at +1800. Crow-Armstrong is now one of the most likely winners, but his price has collapsed after one of the hottest two-game power stretches of the season.

Quick MLB Home Run Betting Takeaways

• Current MLB leader: Kyle Schwarber with 40 home runs.
• Market favorite: Schwarber around -175.
• Most likely winner: Kyle Schwarber.
• Best current value: Junior Caminero at +800 or better.
• Best veteran alternative: Matt Olson at +900 or better.
• Best longshot: Hunter Goodman at +1800 or better.
• Biggest market mover: Pete Crow-Armstrong, now +425 after reaching 38 home runs.
• Best Schwarber entry: Prefer -150 or better rather than chasing -175.

MLB Home Run Leader Odds 2026

The current market makes Schwarber a substantial favorite, but the race is closer on the field than the price may initially suggest. Only four home runs separate first-place Schwarber from sixth-place Goodman.

Odds last checked: September 2, 2026. Prices can change.

Schwarber’s -175 line carries an implied probability of approximately 63.6 percent before sportsbook margin. Crow-Armstrong at +425 requires approximately 19.0 percent, while Caminero at +800 needs only 11.1 percent.

The shortest price is therefore not automatically the strongest bet. Schwarber can remain the most likely winner while another contender offers a better return relative to the realistic chance of overcoming a three-home-run deficit.

Bettors can compare this futures race with daily MLB odds as September schedules, pitching matchups and ballparks create short-term opportunities for each contender.

Current MLB Home Run Leaders

Schwarber leads MLB with 40 home runs through games completed on September 1. Crow-Armstrong is second at 38, while Alvarez, Caminero and Olson are tied for third at 37.

The race remains unusually crowded this late in the season. Five players are within three home runs of first place, and Goodman is only four behind.

Shohei Ohtani sits farther back with 30 home runs. At this point, a 10-homer deficit makes his path far less realistic than those of the seven players above him despite his established power.

The official MLB home run leaderboard updates the standings as each game is completed.

What Changed Since the Previous Update?

The previous August 5 update had Alvarez leading MLB with 35 home runs and listed him as the betting favorite around -115. Goodman and Schwarber were tied for second with 33, while Caminero sat fourth at 32.

The following four weeks completely reshaped the race. Schwarber added seven home runs and reclaimed first place, while Alvarez managed only two additional homers and fell into the three-way tie at 37.

The biggest change belongs to Crow-Armstrong. He was outside the primary betting group earlier in August but exploded late in the month, including five home runs across two games on August 30 and August 31.

The table also shows why futures prices cannot be evaluated only through the current standings. Alvarez remains only three home runs behind Schwarber, but his odds have moved from favorite status to +600 because his recent power rate slowed while several competitors surged.

Why Kyle Schwarber Is the Home Run Leader Favorite

Schwarber deserves favorite status because he owns a two-home-run lead with fewer than four weeks remaining and has the strongest recent history of sustaining elite power across a full season.

He became the first player to reach 40 home runs this season on August 27. It marked his fourth 40-homer season in five years with Philadelphia and continued a remarkable stretch of consistent power.

Schwarber also hit a career-high 56 home runs in 2025. None of the immediate challengers except Olson has previously completed a Major League season with at least 50.

Durability strengthens the favorite case. Schwarber played all 162 games last season and has remained a regular presence near the top of Philadelphia’s lineup again in 2026.

His two-homer advantage also forces every challenger to do more than merely match his September production. If Schwarber hits six additional home runs, Crow-Armstrong needs at least eight to move ahead, while the group at 37 needs nine.

The concern is price. At -175, bettors need Schwarber to win approximately 63.6 percent of the time before accounting for sportsbook margin. That is a large requirement in a race where five hitters remain within three home runs.

Schwarber is therefore the prediction without being the best new wager. A move toward -150 would improve the entry. At -200 or shorter, the risk-to-return relationship becomes increasingly difficult to justify.

ScoresAndStats Prediction: Kyle Schwarber finishes first in MLB home runs.

Betting Decision: Pass at -175 unless the market improves toward -150 or better.

Pete Crow-Armstrong’s Historic Market Move

Crow-Armstrong is the most important new challenger after one of the most explosive power stretches of the entire season.

He hit three home runs on August 30 and followed with two more on August 31, producing five home runs in a two-game span and moving from 33 to 38 almost immediately.

The betting market reacted even faster. Crow-Armstrong was available around +4500 on August 26 when he had 33 home runs. He is now approximately +425 and trails Schwarber by only two.

That movement is mathematically understandable. A +4500 price implies a probability of only 2.2 percent, while +425 implies approximately 19 percent. Crow-Armstrong’s actual position changed enough to justify a major repricing.

The problem is that bettors entering now receive none of the old 45-1 upside. They are being asked to pay for the five-homer burst after it happened.

Crow-Armstrong also has fewer games available than several American League challengers because Chicago has already played 139 games. Every remaining plate appearance therefore carries additional importance.

He is a legitimate threat, but +425 is no longer an obvious value position. A return toward +500 or +550 would create a better entry if Schwarber remains at 40.

ScoresAndStats View: Crow-Armstrong is the second-most likely winner, but prefer +500 or better rather than chasing the post-surge price.

Junior Caminero Home Run Leader Value at +800

Junior Caminero offers the strongest current price among the immediate three-home-run challengers. He has 37 homers and approximately 24 team games remaining, yet the market still offers around +800.

Caminero hit seven home runs during August and ended the month with homers on consecutive days against San Diego. His power has therefore remained active while Alvarez has dealt with a much longer stretch between home runs.

The Rays also remain in a competitive postseason race, reducing the likelihood that Tampa Bay voluntarily limits one of its most important hitters during the final month.

At +800, Caminero needs to win approximately 11.1 percent of the time before sportsbook margin. That threshold is considerably easier to justify than Schwarber’s 63.6 percent requirement.

The main risk is that Caminero must pass four players rather than only Schwarber. Even if he catches the leader, Alvarez, Olson or Crow-Armstrong could produce a stronger closing stretch.

The +800 price compensates for that traffic. Caminero is playable at the current number and becomes particularly attractive at +900 or longer.

Our Best Current Value Pick: Junior Caminero at +800 or better.

Yordan Alvarez Home Run Leader Odds at +600

Alvarez remains only three home runs behind Schwarber, but his price has expanded dramatically from -115 on August 5 to approximately +600.

The market movement reflects a genuine slowdown. Alvarez entered the final days of August with only two home runs across his previous 119 plate appearances and endured a 12-game homerless stretch before finally ending it.

Pitchers have also become increasingly willing to work around him. Alvarez continues reaching base at an elite rate, but walks remove potential home run swings from a counting-statistic market.

His underlying offensive season remains outstanding. Alvarez is hitting above .300, owns an OPS above 1.000 and remains one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball when opponents challenge him.

Houston also has approximately 24 games remaining, giving Alvarez one additional game of schedule compared with Schwarber, Crow-Armstrong and Olson based on the current standings.

The combination makes +600 reasonable but not exceptional. Alvarez needs a power rebound immediately, and he must pass multiple hitters who are currently producing homers more frequently.

ScoresAndStats View: Alvarez remains dangerous at +600, but +700 or better would provide the preferable entry.

Matt Olson Home Run Leader Odds at +900

Matt Olson provides the most appealing veteran alternative at approximately +900. He is tied with Alvarez and Caminero at 37 while offering a longer price than either.

Olson also has direct experience winning this market. He led Major League Baseball with 54 home runs in 2023 and has remained one of the league’s most durable everyday power hitters.

His 37th home run came on August 28, so he enters September without the extended power drought affecting Alvarez. Atlanta also remains in a tight National League race, keeping Olson in meaningful games throughout the month.

The primary disadvantage is schedule. Atlanta has already played 139 games, leaving approximately 23. Houston and Tampa Bay have one additional game available based on the September 1 standings.

Olson also must erase three homers while passing Crow-Armstrong and at least matching the other two players currently tied with him.

At +900, that path is priced reasonably. Bettors who prefer proven durability and previous home run title experience may favor Olson over Caminero, even though Caminero receives the primary value designation.

ScoresAndStats View: Matt Olson is playable at +900 and becomes a strong alternative at +1000 or better.

Hunter Goodman Home Run Leader Longshot

Hunter Goodman is the preferred longshot at +1800 because he remains only four home runs behind first place and has already demonstrated elite multi-homer upside.

Goodman reached 36 home runs on August 28 after hitting Nos. 35 and 36 during the final week of the month. Earlier this season, he became the first player in Rockies history to record two three-homer games in the same season.

His power is not simply a Coors Field creation. Goodman has produced significant road power and has repeatedly generated home runs with exit velocities above 108 mph.

Coors still helps the September outlook because every remaining home series gives Goodman an environment where routine fly balls can carry differently than they do at many parks.

The risk remains playing time and physical workload. Goodman catches regularly, and a catcher is more likely to receive strategic rest than a designated hitter such as Schwarber or Alvarez.

He also trails six players or ties behind them in the overall race, so a normal five- or six-homer September may not be enough.

The +1800 return makes that uncertainty acceptable for a smaller longshot position. Goodman becomes particularly attractive at +2000 or longer.

Our Best Longshot: Hunter Goodman at +1800 or better.

Can Ben Rice Still Win the Home Run Title?

Ben Rice remains mathematically alive at 35 home runs and approximately +4000, but he needs the largest comeback among the players on the primary betting board.

Rice hit his 34th and 35th home runs during the final full week of August and continues to receive regular plate appearances in a Yankees lineup that has operated without Aaron Judge for most of the summer.

The five-homer deficit is manageable in isolation. The larger problem is that Rice must pass six separate hitters. He could produce an excellent final month and still finish behind someone from the 37-home-run group.

Judge is also working toward a September return. His presence could improve the lineup around Rice and create better pitches to hit, but it also changes how the Yankees distribute premium lineup opportunities.

At +4000, Rice is viable only as a small speculative position. Bettors seeking a more realistic longshot should prefer Goodman, who begins one home run closer to the leaders and faces fewer players ahead of him.

ScoresAndStats View: Rice is a deep longshot at +4000, not a primary recommendation.

Injuries Reshaped the Home Run Race

The 2026 home run market demonstrates how quickly a season-long counting-stat future can change when elite hitters lose plate appearances.

Aaron Judge entered the season as one of the two clear betting favorites but has not played since May 31 because of a stress fracture in his right first rib. He remains at 17 home runs and is working toward a possible September return.

Judge’s comeback may matter greatly to the Yankees, but he has no realistic path to overcome a 23-home-run deficit in this market.

Shohei Ohtani also entered the year near the top of the board but sits at 30 home runs, 10 behind Schwarber. His production remains elite overall, but the current deficit requires a September power surge combined with major slowdowns from several players ahead of him.

Those examples explain why durability should remain part of every preseason home run-leader handicap. A player can possess the league’s best raw power and still lose a counting-stat market by missing six or eight weeks.

MLB Home Run Leader Market Movement

The final week of August produced dramatic changes in the betting market, led by Crow-Armstrong’s surge.

Crow-Armstrong’s move from approximately +4500 to +425 is the clearest lesson. Futures value is often created before a statistical surge becomes obvious to the wider market.

A bettor who liked Crow-Armstrong at 45-1 had enormous upside while he sat seven home runs behind Schwarber. Buying the same player after he moved within two homers requires a completely different probability assessment.

Caminero represents the opposite situation. His price shortened, but not nearly as dramatically. He still offers +800 despite sitting only one home run behind Crow-Armstrong and three behind Schwarber.

Home Run Pace and Final Projections

A simple full-season pace still favors Schwarber because every leading contender has roughly 23 or 24 team games remaining. The current leader does not need to match Crow-Armstrong’s extraordinary late-August surge to remain in front.

These ranges are betting estimates rather than formal statistical projections. September home run production can change quickly because of ballpark schedules, opposing pitchers, weather, rest and simple power variance.

The important number is the gap rather than the exact projection. Schwarber can probably win with something in the upper 40s. The players at 37 likely need to approach 45 or better while hoping the leader produces a relatively ordinary final month.

Recent MLB Home Run Leaders

Recent MLB history shows that Schwarber already belongs among the game’s most consistent power hitters, but he has not yet won the overall Major League home run title.

The 2026 winning total is likely to be substantially lower than the 54 to 62 home runs required during the previous four seasons. The crowded standings make the race compelling even without one hitter threatening 60.

Olson is the only current top-seven contender who has already won an overall MLB home run title. Schwarber finished second to Olson in 2023 and then hit 56 in 2025, only to finish behind Raleigh’s historic 60-homer season.

Final MLB Home Run Leader Odds and Predictions

Schwarber remains the most likely winner because the race has reached the point where an existing two-home-run lead carries significant value. His durability and repeated 40-plus-homer seasons make him the safest player to project through September.

The betting board is a different question. At -175, much of Schwarber’s advantage has already been incorporated into the price. Caminero at +800 offers the stronger combination of proximity, remaining games and payout.

Caminero is the best new wager at the current prices because he sits only three behind Schwarber but requires a break-even probability of just 11.1 percent at +800. His seven-homer August and everyday role provide a credible path to making up the difference.

Olson is the stronger choice for bettors who prioritize proven full-season power. His +900 price is longer than Alvarez’s despite the two entering September tied with 37 home runs.

Goodman offers the most attractive true longshot profile. He is only four behind and has enough multi-homer upside to close the gap quickly, although catcher workload keeps him from receiving a stronger recommendation.

Crow-Armstrong can absolutely win, but the best betting opportunity occurred before his five-homer explosion. Moving from approximately +4500 to +425 in less than a week means new bettors are now purchasing momentum at a dramatically higher price.

Season-long futures should be sized carefully because the outcome can change with one injury or one multi-homer series. The ScoresAndStats Expert Betting Guide provides additional information on implied probability, futures markets and bankroll management.

Our 2026 MLB Home Run Leader Prediction: Kyle Schwarber finishes first, while Junior Caminero at +800 is the strongest current value wager.

MLB Home Run Leader FAQs