2026 Home Run Leader Odds and Predictions

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The 2026 MLB season is just getting started, which makes the home run leader market one of the cleanest futures boards available. It is visible, easy to track, and driven by the factors bettors care about most here: power ceiling, durability, and a real path to a full season of volume. Readers comparing this market with broader futures can also check the current World Series odds and predictions to see how team strength and individual power markets line up.

Sportsbooks have already posted prices on which player will finish with the most home runs, and this board is clearly top-heavy. Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani sit at the top, with Kyle Schwarber and Cal Raleigh next in line before the market stretches into longer prices. For bettors looking at league-level futures alongside this race, the current MLB pennant odds and predictions offer useful context.

This article has the latest home run leader odds and the best betting angles based on the current board. The goal is simple: identify which favorites deserve respect, where the best value sits, and which player offers the best overall price-to-path case. If you want more daily betting context around the league, the latest MLB picks and the full MLB blog coverage hub are strong companion reads.

All-Time Home Run Leaders

Here are the top 10 all-time home run leaders:

• Barry Bonds (762)
• Hank Aaron (755)
• Babe Ruth (714)
• Albert Pujols (703)
• Alex Rodriguez (696)
• Willie Mays (660)
• Ken Griffey Jr. (630)
• Jim Thome (612)
• Sammy Sosa (609)
• Frank Robinson (586)

Home Run Leaders 2025

Cal Raleigh finished as MLB’s overall home run leader in 2025 with 60 for the Seattle Mariners. He also led the American League, while Kyle Schwarber paced the National League with 56.

That leaderboard matters for this year’s market because the power at the top was real across both leagues. Raleigh jumped from a previous career high of 34 to 60, Schwarber played all 162 games on his way to 56, and both Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge also cleared 53 home runs. Bettors who want a wider team-by-team view of the player pool can use the MLB team pages to track roster context across the league.

MLB Home Run Leader Odds

These are the latest MLB home run leader odds.

Judge is the current favorite at +350, with Ohtani right behind him at +400. Schwarber, Raleigh, and Alonso are the other names that stand out most, but the biggest takeaway is still the shape of the market: this board runs through Judge and Ohtani first, then everyone else. For bettors who want to compare this futures board with the broader market, the full MLB scores and odds board is a useful reference point.

Home Run Leader Favorites

These are the favorites who deserve the most attention at the top of the board.

Aaron Judge (+350)

Judge is the favorite because the ceiling is still the best on the board. When this market is about who can get to the highest number, he already owns the strongest proven top-end power case.

The recent production backs it up. He hit 53 home runs in 2025, 58 in 2024, and 62 in 2022. That is exactly what bettors want from a short-price favorite: multiple recent seasons that already look like winning outcomes.

The context is also easy to understand. He is still the Yankees’ middle-of-the-order anchor, and Yankee Stadium was among the parks that allowed the most home runs in 2025. The durability note is fair, though. He missed time in 2023, and that matters more in this market than almost any other.

At +350, the case is obvious, but the number is tight. Judge makes sense as the favorite, but you are paying for the ceiling with very little room for missed time.

Shohei Ohtani (+400)

Ohtani is the cleanest alternative to Judge at the top of the board. The price is still short, but the path is easy to see because the power output has stayed right there with the favorite.

He hit 55 home runs in 2025 after hitting 54 in 2024 and 44 in 2023. That three-year run puts him in the same serious tier as Judge, and it gives him one of the strongest consistency cases in the market.

There is also strong environment support here. Ohtani plays every day in a loaded Dodgers lineup, and Dodger Stadium allowed the most home runs in MLB in 2025. The only real pushback is price. Like Judge, he is expensive, and any workload balance over a full season becomes part of the risk at this number.

Still, +400 is a little easier to live with than the favorite’s number. If you want one of the two top-end names, Ohtani has a very strong case.

Kyle Schwarber (+800)

Schwarber sits in the next tier, but the profile fits this market better than most players priced behind him. The appeal starts with volume and a swing built for one outcome.

He hit 56 home runs in 2025 after posting 47 in 2023 and 38 in 2024. More importantly, he played all 162 games last season. In a category like this, full-season plate appearances matter, and Schwarber already showed the exact kind of volume a winning ticket needs.

He also gets support from context. He is an everyday power bat in Philadelphia, and the notes in the input sheet point to a favorable offensive environment at home. He has also led the NL in home runs before, so this is not a hypothetical path.

At +800, Schwarber is not cheap enough to call a value play, but he is long enough to be more appealing than the top two favorites. He is a very real contender if you want exposure outside the shortest range of the board.

Cal Raleigh (+900)

Raleigh is the reigning MLB home run leader, so he belongs in the favorite group even if the profile is a little harder to price. The market is asking whether last year was the new normal or the peak.

The numbers are hard to ignore. He hit 60 home runs in 2025 after hitting 34 in 2024 and 30 in 2023. That jump is massive, which gives him both a winning case and a clear regression risk at the same time.

There are also mixed contextual signals. He played 159 games, which is a huge plus, especially for a catcher. On the other hand, the home park note is not doing him obvious favors, which matters when the market is asking him to repeat a career year.

At +900, Raleigh is playable because he already proved he can win this market outright. The concern is simple: you are still paying for a season that sits far above the rest of his track record.

The Best Home Run Leader Betting Value

These are the numbers that offer a better payoff without drifting into pure lottery-ticket territory.

Pete Alonso (+1300)

Alonso is the most interesting value name on the board because the price still gives you room while the power résumé is already strong enough for a real title path. He does not need a miracle season to cash this bet. He needs one of his better power seasons over a full year.

He hit 38 home runs in 2025 and has previous totals of 46 and 34 over the last three seasons. The bigger draw is the career-high number. Alonso has already shown he can get to 53, which is the kind of range that keeps a player live in this market.

The move to Baltimore adds a new layer to the case. He should hit in the middle of a productive lineup, and he still brings everyday volume after playing all 162 games last year. The park note is a little mixed, so this is not a perfect setup, but the number accounts for some of that uncertainty.

At +1300, Alonso offers a better betting balance than the shortest favorites. The path is believable, and the price is finally paying you for the risk.

Juan Soto (+1700)

Soto is not the first name bettors think of in this market, which is part of why the number is interesting. He is coming off the best home run season of his career, but the price still sits well behind the top of the board.

He hit 43 home runs in 2025 after hitting 41 in 2024 and 35 in 2023. That is a clear upward trend, and he played 160 games last season, which matters in any season-leader market.

The case here is less about park help and more about hitter quality plus volume. Soto is the centerpiece of the Mets lineup, and if the power growth holds, he does not need to become a different hitter to beat this number. He just needs one more step.

At +1700, Soto is the more aggressive value swing. He is not as natural a home run title fit as Alonso, but the price gives him real betting appeal.

Top Longshot To Lead MLB In Home Runs

Junior Caminero (+2500) is the longshot worth attention because the upside is already on the page. He hit 45 home runs in 2025 at age 22, which is exactly the kind of breakout season that can turn into a true top-tier chase one year later.

The risk is obvious too. He has the shortest major-league résumé of the main contenders, so one big season is still carrying most of the case. But at +2500, that is the kind of profile worth a look. The power upside is real, and the number finally gives bettors enough room to take that swing.

Home Run Leader Predictions

Judge deserves to be the favorite because nobody on the board has a better proven top-end ceiling. The problem is price. In a market that depends so heavily on staying on the field all year, +350 is thin even for a player with Judge’s résumé.

Ohtani gives you the best mix of current power form, durability, and environment without forcing you all the way down to the shortest number on the board. He is not a bargain, but he still offers a cleaner balance of price, path, and upside than anyone else in the favorite tier. Bettors weighing this market against broader futures and capper sentiment can also compare notes with the best MLB handicappers, the site’s sportsbook reviews, and the broader MLB expert betting guide.

Bet: Shohei Ohtani (+400)

Home Run Leaders

The following is a list of the recent players to have the most home runs in a season: