2025 AAC Conference Football Odds and Predictions

By:

Rick Bouch

in

NCAAF

Last Updated on

The American Athletic Conference (AAC) is typically always considered one of the stronger Group of 5 conferences in college football. Last year, the conference sent eight of its 14 teams to bowl games. That could continue in 2025 as the conference has some very solid programs.

Army, the AAC champion last year, will have a difficult time repeating what they accomplished in 2024. The Black Knights won 12-2 overall, 8-0 in AAC play with the only losses to No. 2 Notre Dame and rival Navy.

It’s unlikely that an AAC team will make the College Football Playoffs, but crazier things have happened. Tulane is a program on the rise and returns a wealth of talent. The Green Wave is the favorite to win the AAC this season. To qualify for the CFP, Tulane would likely have to run the table, go 12-0 in the regular season, and then win the AAC championship game. The Green Wave do have early season games against Duke at home and Ole Miss on the road. Wins against those two teams would certainly help Tulane’s case for a playoff spot.

Four schools have new head coaches heading into the 2025 season. East Carolina had hired Blake Harrell as its interim coach last year after the Pirates fired Mike Houston. Harrell led ECU to a 5-1 finish in the team’s final six games.

Charlotte hired former Ohio University head coach Tim Albin. Tulsa hired Tre Lamb after Kevin Wilson was fired at the end of last season, and K.C. Keeler, who is no stranger to the Philadelphia area, takes over at Temple, which struggled through a 3-9 season.

While none of the AAC programs are likely to compete for the College Football Championship, the conference does feature the greatest rivalry in college football – Army vs. Navy. Each year, the two service academies close out college football’s regular season with their annual meeting. This year’s game is scheduled for Dec. 13 in Baltimore, Maryland.

What Teams Are In The AAC Conference?

The following teams currently play in the AAC Conference:

  • Army Black Knights: joined in 2024
  • Charlotte 49ers: joined in 2023
  • East Carolina Pirates: joined in 2014
  • Florida Atlantic Owls:  joined in 2023
  • Memphis Tigers: joined in 2013
  • Navy Midshipmen:  joined in 2015
  • North Texas Mean Green: joined in 2023
  • Rice Owls: joined in 2023
  • South Florida Bulls: joined in 2013
  • Temple Owls: joined in 2013
  • Tulane Green Wave: joined in 2014
  • Tulsa Golden Hurricane: joined in 2014
  • UAB Blazers: joined in 2023
  • UTSA Roadrunners: joined in 2023

When Is The AAC Championship Football Game?

The 2025 American Athletic Conference championship game will be played on Friday, Dec. 5, 2025. The game is set to be televised by ABC with game time set at 8 p.m. ET.

The AAC title game will be played on the home field of the team that wins the regular season championship. Last year, that was Michie Stadium, the home of Army, which went 8-0 during the AAC regular season.

2024 AAC Conference Odds

Check out the latest NCAAF odds for the AAC Conference, courtesy of the top sports betting sites:

AAC Conference TeamsConference OddsTotal WinsMake Playoffs
Tulane Green Wave+275O/U 8.5  WinsNA
Navy Midshipmen+350O/U 8.5 WinsNA
UTSA Roadrunners+500O/U 7.5 WinsNA
Army Black Knights+550O/U 7.5 WinsNA
Memphis Tigers+550O/U 8.5 WinsNA
South Florida Bulls+700O/U 6.5 WinsNA
East Carolina Pirates+1800O/U 6.5 WinsNA
North Texas Mean Green+1800O/U 6.5 WinsNA
Rice Owls+7500O/U 3.5 WinsNA
FAU Owls+10000O/U 4.5 WinsNA
UAB Blazers+10000O/U 4.5 WinsNA
Charlotte 49ers+15000O/U 2.5 WinsNA
Temple Owls+15000O/U 3.5 WinsNA
Tulsa Golden Hurricane+15000O/U 3.5 WinsNA

AAC Conference Favorites

The following College Football teams are considered the favorites to win the AAC Conference:

Tulane Green Wave +275

The big news late in the early summer was the ordeal that former BYU QB Jake Retzlaff went through. The short version is that he was forced to leave the Mormon university which has a strict honor code. Officially, Retzlaff was not in the transfer portal, since he was removed as a student.

He was then free to transfer anywhere and landed at Tulane. The Green Wave lost Darian Mensah, who transferred to Duke in the offseason. Retzlaff helped lead BYU to an 11-2 record last year. He’ll take over where Mensah left off. He’s got some talented receivers in Bryce Bohanon and Omari Hayes.

The Green Wave defense returns its top five tacklers and will plug in a number of proven and ready transfers. Head coach Jon Sumrall is a defensive guy and you can bet Tulane will continue to be strong defensively. The Green Wave finished 28th in the nation last year in scoring defense and 26th in total defense.

Last year was Year 1 of the Drew Cronic experiment. Cronic was the former head coach at FCS Mercer who runs a brand of modern, hybrid Wing-T combined with the triple option. Navy head coach Brian Newberry wanted to modernize Navy’s triple option offense. Consider it modernized.

The Middies went 10-3 last season and, most importantly – BEAT ARMY! The offense averaged just south of 30 points per game. As is typical, Navy was fifth in the nation in rushing yards, averaging 247.2 per game. They will return the entire backfield, including senior QB Blake Horvath, who rushed for 1,246 yards and threw for 1,353. He totaled 30 touchdowns.

Like all the service academies, Navy gets the most out of its defense. Last season, they were 34th in the nation allowing 22.2 points per game. The Midshipmen were also outstanding in red zone defense (fourth) nationally. The schedule is favorable. It could be the other service academy’s turn to dominate the AAC this season.

UTSA Roadrunners +500

UTSA head coach Jeff Traylor is one of the most sought-after head coaches in FBS. He has essentially led the UTSA program to its current standing as one of the top Group of 5 schools in the country.

Traylor took over in 2020 and the Roadrunners went 7-5 and then they went 12-2 and 11-3 the following two seasons. UTSA dropped off a bit last year, but they finished with four wins in their final five games – including a bowl win – to give Traylor and the Roadrunners their fifth straight winning season.

In 2025, the entire offense returns, led by QB Owen McCown. If the name sounds familiar, that’s because McCown is the son of former NFL QB Josh McCown and nephew of another former NFL QB Luke McCown. Traylor coached both elder McCowns at Gilmer High School back in the 1990s.

Last season, UTSA finished ranked No. 30 in points per game and 12th in total yards with 451.2 per game. The defense will be entirely new, but keep in mind the last two AAC Defensive Players of the Year both played at UTSA. A number of transfers will fill the holes.

Army Black Knights +550

What a season for Army in 2024! The Black Knights returned a ton of starters last year, but they will have to reload in a number of spots, primarily quarterback. QB Bryson Daily was the AAC Offensive Player of the Year and finished sixth in the Heisman Trophy voting. Kanye Udoh ran for 1,117 yards last season and then transferred to Arizona State.

The Black Knights must replace both players. Dewayne Coleman has some experience at quarterback. Noah Short ran for 569 yards last year and is back at one of the slots. Only two starters return on the offensive line. The defense does have five starters back from a unit that finished fifth in the nation allowing 16.2 points per game.

The Best AAC Conference Betting Value

The following AAC teams are our top value bets:

Navy could be similar to Army last season. The Black Knights just dominated everyone not named Notre Dame or Navy. Yes, the Midshipmen got a huge win in last year’s season finale and then won their bowl game against Oklahoma to finish 10-3.

Head coach Brian Newberry went 5-7 in Year 1, 10-3 last year, and now has eight returning offensive starters on an offense that defenses have a hard time figuring out. Navy finished fifth in the nation in rushing yards last year and, as an option-based football team, they still threw for 120 yards a game.

The schedule is favorable, especially early. Navy is at Notre Dame but not until Nov. 8. They get South Florida at home and their AAC finale is at Memphis on Nov. 27. Best of all, the Middies don’t play Tulane, the AAC favorite.

South Florida Bulls +700

Speaking of South Florida, head coach Alex Golesh has the program headed back in the right direction. QB Byrum Brown is back after a knee injury ended his season in Game 5. The Bulls still went 5-3 down the stretch and 7-6 for the season.

The schedule is a tough one. The Bulls will face Boise State, Florida, and Miami to start the season. The AAC schedule is a bit easier. USF will not face Tulane nor will they play Army. If the defense continues its assault on opposing offenses – the Bulls were No. 6 in tackles for loss last year and 13th in turnovers gained – South Florida could be playing for an AAC title in early December.

The Top AAC Conference Longshot

If there is a true longshot that can win the AAC, it’s the North Texas Mean Green (+1800). You know the offense is going to score points. Head coach Eric Morris always finds a quarterback and always has a slew of skill position players that make plays. This year, it’s former FCS star Reese Poffenbarger at quarterback, who threw for 6,000 yards in two seasons at FCS Albany.

The defense gets an overhaul. They were 128th in total defense last season, which prompted the hire of new defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity. His defenses at FCS Stephen F. Austin and Sam Houston were outstanding. The schedule misses Tulane as well as Memphis and East Carolina, two teams that could contend for the AAC title.

AAC Conference Predictions

Tulane is everyone’s favorite to capture the 2025 AAC conference championship. They did lose a ton of talent, but gained some back with the addition of Retzlaff at quarterback. However, the advantage in the AAC race lies in the hands of Navy.

The Midshipmen went 10-3 last season. They lost to Notre Dame, which was expected. They were upset by an inferior Rice team and did get shutout by a charged up Tulane. Navy doesn’t face Tulane in the regular season this year. The Middies have almost the entire offensive roster back from last year and that offense will continue to give defenses fits.

With a rebuilt defense and the best offense in the conference, Navy gets to the AAC championship game and wins it. Make sure you follow our NCAAF picks like this one all season long. Our experts are tuned into what’s happening in college football on a daily basis.

Bet: Navy Midshipmen +350

The Best AAC Win Total Bets

The following AAC teams offer the best Win Total odds to bet on:

Rice Owls Over 3.5 (-155)

The hire of Scott Abell as the new Rice head coach is going to start paying some dividends early. If you don’t know, Abell coaches a unique brand of option football that will give AAC defensive coordinators some serious headaches. Abell took over a Davidson program that was awful and never had a losing season.

Last season, Davidson had the No. 1 rushing offense (315.5 ypg) and scored 35.3 points per game in FCS. While he may not replicate those numbers, the Owls should surprise some teams, especially some of the bottom feeders in the AAC. There’s also a game against an FCS team, Prairie View A&M, early in the season.

The Owls somehow won four games last season and Abell will get every ounce of talent out of his roster. There will be at least one surprise win on the schedule. Make sure you check ScoresandStats every week during the college football season. The best handicappers in the sport are right here and they will dig deep each week to find the upsets that no one else will.

Bet: Rice Owls Over 3.5 Wins (-155)

Army Black Knights Under 7.5 (-135)

The year after one like the Black Knights had in 2024 is usually very difficult for Army head coach Jeff Monken. Triple option quarterbacks just get better and better with more reps and games under their belt. In 2025, Monken will have to replace Bryson Daily, who was the conference offensive player of the year in 2024.

The defense returns five starters and should help keep games close. However, with just four offensive starters back and a new quarterback, the Black Knights will not be as dominant on offense. The Knights have to play at Tulane and, of the top seven teams in the conference, the only one Army doesn’t play is South Florida.

The last time Army won double-digit games was in 2018. The Knights went 11-2. They were in a similar situation and had to replace a lot of their offensive production from the year before. In 2019, Army ended up going 5-8.

Bet: Army Black Knights Under 7.5 Wins (-135)

Which AAC Teams Will Make the Playoffs?

Last year, sportsbooks offered an option on most AAC teams to either make or miss the playoffs. The problem with that is smart bettors (specifically syndicates) can bet on every AAC team not to make the postseason and walk away with a decent payday.

It is highly unlikely that an AAC team will be included in any playoff and especially not this season. There are some great teams in the AAC, but none worthy of the 12-team playoff discussion. Most sportsbooks wised up and did not even offer the bet in 2025.

Bet: None

AAC Conference Winners

The following is a list of the most recent AAC Conference winners:

YearTeam# of Titles
2024Army Black Knights1
2023SMU Mustangs1
2022Tulane Green Wave1
2021Cincinnati Bearcats2
2020Cincinnati Bearcats1
2019Memphis Tigers2
2018UCF Knights4
2017UCF Knights3
2016Temple Owls1
2015Houston Cougars1