2025-26 NBA Most Improved Player Award Odds and Predictions

The 2025-26 NBA Most Improved Player market has gone from a crowded futures board to a much tighter race, and that matters if you are betting into it now. Jalen Duren has made the biggest move of anyone on the board, and the market is clearly reacting to both his statistical jump and Detroit’s rise in the standings. At this point, only a handful of players look like real contenders, even if a few longer shots still deserve a mention.

That is what makes this market interesting from a betting perspective. The most likely winner is not automatically the best wager, and this board now comes down to price versus path. Let’s look at the latest odds, the top contenders, and the best current bet.

NBA Most Improved Player Odds

Here is the current BetMGM board for the top NBA Most Improved Player candidates.

The biggest move on the board belongs to Duren, who has gone from +8000 to -130. That is a massive swing for any award market, and it tells you this race is no longer viewed as wide open. The board has also tightened sharply around Nickeil Alexander-Walker, who moved from +20000 to +135 and is now the only true alternative near the top.

Deni Avdija still has a live number at +600, but the market has cooled on him after earlier momentum. Jalen Johnson is the interesting name if you want a bigger price, while Ryan Rollins and Collin Gillespie look more like longshot mentions than realistic winners.

From a betting angle, this is mostly a top-heavy race now. Duren is the most likely winner, but laying a negative number in an award market this late is a different conversation than simply identifying the best season. That is where Alexander-Walker becomes the key value discussion.

If you’re betting the Most Improved Player market now, it helps to compare the futures board with the latest NBA odds and keep tracking how team momentum affects award narratives. Bettors looking for more day-to-day context can also visit the NBA picks and previews hub to follow injuries, form, and matchup trends that can influence this race.

NBA Most Improved Player Contenders

Let’s break down the top NBA Most Improved Player contenders:

Jalen Duren (Detroit Pistons)

Duren has the strongest market case because he checks the two boxes bettors want to see in this award: a clear statistical leap and a winning-team narrative. He has gone from 11.8 points per game last season to 19.5 this year, while continuing to dominate the glass at 10.6 rebounds per game. His field-goal rate remains elite, and his offensive role has expanded without tanking his efficiency.

That team context matters. Detroit sitting first in the Central and near the top of the East gives Duren a much cleaner path than players putting up big numbers on weaker teams. Voters tend to reward improvement that changes how a team is viewed, and Duren fits that profile.

There are still a few reasons not to love the bet itself. His playmaking jump is not as dramatic as some of the wing candidates, and some voters may prefer a more versatile perimeter breakout over a center whose value is still built heavily around finishing and rebounding. More importantly, the price has moved so far that the value is mostly gone.

Duren looks like the most likely winner, and the market is saying the same thing. The question is not whether he belongs here. It is whether -130 is worth paying that late in the cycle.

Duren’s case gets even stronger when you zoom out and look at Detroit’s place in the bigger playoff picture. The NBA Eastern Conference odds and predictions can help bettors judge whether the Pistons’ rise is strong enough to keep reinforcing his position near the top of this market.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker (Atlanta Hawks)

Alexander-Walker has the cleanest classic MIP profile on the board. He has gone from 9.4 points per game to 20.3, while his minutes jumped from 25.3 to 33.1. That is the kind of role change bettors want to see in this market: not just better counting stats, but a real shift from complementary player to major offensive piece.

The rest of the profile holds up too. He has maintained reliable three-point shooting, improved his defensive impact, and become a major part of Atlanta’s rise. That team success gives his case real weight, because he is not just compiling numbers in empty possessions. He is doing it on a team that matters in the playoff picture.

The downside is that Duren now has the stronger market momentum, and Alexander-Walker is sharing some of the Hawks spotlight with Jalen Johnson. That can hurt in an award race where narrative clarity matters. He also may not have the same star ceiling as some of the other top names, which could affect how voters frame the leap.

Even with that, Alexander-Walker is still the most appealing alternative to the favorite. He has a legitimate path, a believable MIP story, and a much more attractive number than Duren.

Alexander-Walker’s profile becomes even more interesting when you factor in Atlanta’s place in the playoff race. Reviewing the NBA Eastern Conference odds and predictions gives bettors more context on whether the Hawks have enough late-season traction to keep supporting his value case.

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Deni Avdija (Portland Trail Blazers)

If you are looking strictly at the all-around basketball case, Avdija may have the best one in the field. He jumped from 16.9 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 3.9 assists to 24.1 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 6.7 assists. That is not just a scoring jump. That is a full offensive expansion into primary creator territory.

His case is especially strong because the improvement is broad, not narrow. He is handling more playmaking, carrying more usage, and still producing efficiently enough to support the leap. That makes him one of the most complete candidates on the board.

The problem is the betting market and the team context. Portland is hovering around the Play-In range instead of sitting near the top of the standings, and that hurts him against Duren and the Atlanta candidates. He also appears to have lost momentum after previously spending time near the top of the race.

Avdija is easy to respect and a little tougher to back. He looks like one of the best players in the field by pure improvement, but not necessarily one of the best current bets at +600 given how the market has shifted.

Avdija’s all-around leap is one of the strongest on the board, but team context still matters in a market like this. That is why it helps to look at the NBA Western Conference odds and predictions, which can frame whether Portland has enough relevance to keep him live as a serious threat.

Jalen Johnson (Atlanta Hawks)

Johnson’s case is built on just how complete his stat line has become. He moved from 18.9 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 5.0 assists to 22.9 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 8.1 assists, while also improving his three-point shooting from 31.2% to 35.3%. That is the profile of a player growing from strong starter into offensive engine.

Atlanta’s team success helps, and Johnson’s expanded playmaking gives him a different kind of MIP case than someone like Duren. His improvement is not only about finishing more possessions. It is about controlling more of the offense and doing it efficiently enough to matter.

The issue is that Johnson was already very good last season. In this award, that can work against a player. Voters often prefer a breakout that feels more surprising, and Johnson’s leap may read more like a second step than a true arrival. Sharing the Hawks spotlight with Alexander-Walker does not help either.

At +3500, though, he is at least interesting. He is not the cleanest narrative candidate, but his price is big enough to make the discussion worthwhile.

Johnson’s jump is easier to appreciate when you compare his individual growth with Atlanta’s bigger outlook. The NBA Eastern Conference odds and predictions can help bettors decide whether the Hawks’ standing gives his breakout enough team-level support to gain more traction.

Ryan Rollins (Milwaukee Bucks)

Rollins has made a real jump, even if the market still treats him as a fringe contender. He went from 6.2 points and 1.9 assists in 14.6 minutes per game to 17.0 points and 5.6 assists in 32.0 minutes. That kind of role and production increase is exactly what this award is supposed to recognize.

He also kept his shooting profile strong while taking on much more responsibility. That matters, because a jump in workload without a collapse in efficiency is a real signal of growth rather than simple volume inflation.

The problem is obvious: team context. Milwaukee is already eliminated and well outside the real playoff picture. That makes it difficult for Rollins to gain serious traction against players whose improvement is tied to meaningful team success.

Rollins has made a real leap, but longshot bettors still need a reason to believe the team environment can carry him further. Checking the latest NBA scores and odds can help track whether Milwaukee shows enough late-season competitiveness to make his number worth more than a glance.

He is a respectable longshot from a numbers perspective, but not a practical win bet in this market.

Collin Gillespie (Phoenix Suns)

Gillespie deserves credit for a legitimate jump from the back end of the rotation into a meaningful contributor. His scoring and assists both roughly doubled, his minutes jumped from 14.0 to 28.8, and he continued to shoot the ball well from three. That gives him a cleaner MIP case than many deep longshots usually have.

There is also some value in the fact that Phoenix is at least in the West Play-In picture. That gives him slightly better team context than someone like Rollins, even if he is not central enough to the Suns’ identity to generate major award buzz.

Still, the ceiling here is probably too low. His raw production does not match the top of the board, and the +25000 price reflects that reality. He is the kind of name worth mentioning in a full board breakdown, but not one that changes the betting conversation.

Gillespie is more of a deep-board mention, but his improvement still becomes easier to understand when viewed through Phoenix’s bigger season outlook. The NBA Western Conference odds and predictions give bettors a better feel for whether the Suns have enough relevance to keep even an outside candidacy visible.

Gillespie has had a good MIP-style season. He just does not have the path needed to win this award over the true contenders.

NBA Most Improved Player Predictions

Most Improved Player betting makes more sense when you compare it with the wider futures landscape. The NBA championship odds and predictions page is useful here because breakout players tend to gain more award momentum when their teams are also pushing toward meaningful postseason positioning.

Duren is still the most likely winner. The market has moved hard in his direction, the scoring jump is real, and Detroit’s rise gives him the strongest team-success narrative on the board. If the award were simply about identifying the player with the clearest inside track today, he would be the answer.

That said, the best wager is not automatically the same thing as the most likely winner. At -130, Duren is expensive for an award market that has already seen several shifts during the season. Bettors are paying for a lot of certainty, and that is always dangerous when the board still has at least one viable challenger.

That makes Alexander-Walker the better betting angle right now. He still has a legitimate path, his statistical leap is exactly what this award often rewards, and +135 is a much more playable number than laying juice on Duren. He is close enough to the favorite in actual win equity to make the price matter.

Johnson is the more aggressive value stab if you want a bigger number, but Alexander-Walker is the better balance of price and realism.

Bet: Nickeil Alexander-Walker (+135)

NBA Most Improved Player Winners

If your futures betting goes beyond individual awards, the NBA Playoffs betting guide and NBA Finals betting guide are strong next reads after locking in a Most Improved Player position. They help connect individual growth with the broader postseason betting picture.

Here is a look at the recent NBA Most Improved Player winners.