On Sunday, April 27, NASCAR’s top series returns to action after having Easter Weekend off. Cup Series drivers will head to the first of two annual Talladega races in the Jack Link’s 500.

Widely considered to be one of the handful of most cherished events, the Jack Link’s 500 is a war of attrition where drivers try to avoid crashes including the big wreck in the final laps of the race.

This is the exact opposite of the last Cup Series race, which took place two weeks ago on the short tracks of Bristol Motor Speedway where Kyle Larson dominated to win the Food City 500.

This weekend, Larson is one member of an eight-driver pack that all sit at the top of the betting boards close in odds. Yet, it’s the Ford drivers of Ryan Blaney, Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano that are tied as the odds-on favorites.

With that said, let’s take a look at the latest NASCAR Talladega odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites, and make our Jack Link’s 500 predictions for this weekend’s Talladega NASCAR Cup Series race.

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Jack Link’s 500 Race Profile

After going by the names of the Aaron’s 499 (2002-2014) and the GEICO 500 (2015-2024), the spring Talladega NASCAR race has taken on a new sponsor – the Jack Link’s 500.

A spring Talladega race has been part of the NASCAR Cup Series calendar since 1970, the first year that the sport ran an event at this venue.

The Talladega Superspeedway is a tri-oval speedway with an asphalt surface, turns with banking of 33 degrees, tri-oval with 16.5 degree banking, straights with two degrees in banking, and a lap distance of 2.66 miles.

Sunday’s Jack Link’s 500 breaks down as follows:

• Total Miles: 500 miles
• Total Laps: 188 laps
• Stage 1: 60 laps
• Stage 2: 60 laps
• Final Stage: 68 laps

Sunday’s Jack Link’s 500 begins at 3pm ET and can be seen on FOX.

Previous Jack Link’s 500 Winners

Jeff Gordon and Brad Keselowski hold the record for the most wins of this spring Talladega race with four apiece. There are six drivers tied for second with three wins each including the Earnhardts, Allisons, David Pearson and Buddy Baker. Kyle Busch is the only other active full-time driver with multiple wins in this event.

The following is a list of the most recent winners:

• 2024: Tyler Reddick
• 2023: Kyle Busch
• 2022: Ross Chastain
• 2021: Brad Keselowski
• 2020: Ryan Blaney
• 2019: Chase Elliott
• 2018: Joey Logano
• 2017: Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
• 2016: Brad Keselowski
• 2015: Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Hendrick Motorsports has the most wins in this race with eight. So, it’s no surprise that Chevrolet holds the record for most victories with 22. Ford is well behind at 15 and Toyota has just three victories.

Jack Link’s 500 Betting Odds

Check out the latest Jack Link’s 500 odds:

Three Ford drivers (Blaney, Logano and Keselowski, sit on top of the betting boards. Ironically, all three used to be Team Penske teammates. Additionally, they all have wins at Talledega. Yet, there’s a pack of drivers that are all within a few hundred odds at the top of the boards. Keep reading to see how I view this race playing out and then compare it to what the best handicappers are predicting.

Jack Link’s 500 Favorites

The following drivers are considered by oddsmakers to be the odds-on favorites to win the Jack Link’s 500:

Ryan Blaney +1000

• Driver Standings: 6
• Win: 0
• Top 5: 3
• Top 10: 4

Ryan Blaney comes into this weekend’s race tied for the odds-on favorite to win the Jack Link’s 500. He currently sits 6^th in the driver standings, but has been gaining some momentum over the last month.

Blaney was 10^th in the standings then scored an 11^th at Martinsville, a 5^th at Darlington and a 5^th in the last race at Bristol. He’s climbed four spots in the standings and now heads to a track where he’s been good at.  

In 21 starts, Blaney has three wins, six Top 5s, eight Top 10s, and a 15.9 average finish. He won this race in 2020, and was second here in 2023. Blaney last led laps in the last six Talladega races and the last 12 of 13 events at this venue.

I’m hesitant to bet on Blaney to win due to his slow start to the season. Yet, I do think he has the potential to be a Top 5 car.

Brad Keselowski +1000 

• Driver Standings: 31
• Win: 0
• Top 5: 0
• Top 10: 0

Let me start by saying that I am fading Brad Keselowski this weekend and I don’t care about his past success at Talladega. That’s not going to sway me in his direction.

Keselowski has been abysmal this year as he sits 31^st in the standings. His best result was 11^th at Las Vegas. He has just two Top 15s on the year and has never cracked the Top 10. Furthermore, Keselowski has not led a lap all year long.

That’s the bad news. But for those optimists out there, Keselowski has run well at Talladega in his career. He has six wins, 12 Top 5s, 16 Top 10s, and a 15.0 average finish in 32 appearances at this venue.

Furthermore, he finished 2^nd in both Talladega races last year and was 5^th in this event for 2023. Nevertheless, Keselowski’s terrible 2025 season to date has me avoiding the #6 car until he at least cracks the Top 5 in a race this year.

Joey Logano +1000

• Driver Standings: 9
• Win: 0
• Top 5: 0
• Top 10: 1

The defending NASCAR Cup Series champion is off to a slow start this year. Although Joey Logano sits 9^th in the standings, he has just one Top 10 in nine races this season. That came at Martinsville two events ago.

Ironically, Logano has had some races where he was one of the best cars, but faded late. For example, he led 83 laps in Atlanta but finished 12^th. He also led 81 laps in Phoenix but finished 13^th. The #22 team has yet to find the winning formula this season.

At Talladega, Logano has three wins, nine Top 5s, 11 Top 10s, and an 18.9 average finish in 32 starts. However, he also has 10 DNFs which includes four in the last nine Talladega races.

Making matters worse, Logano has six consecutive finishes of 19^th or worse. Additionally, he has just one Top 10 in the last 11 Talladega races.

Like Keselowski, I wouldn’t touch Logano this weekend unless you were betting against him in a Driver Matchup.

Kyle Busch +1200

• Driver Standings: 15
• Win: 0
• Top 5: 1
• Top 10: 4

Although Logano and Keselowski sit higher on the betting boards than Kyle Busch, the latter has had a better season so far in regards to one Top 5 and four Top 10s. That’s more than Keselowski and Logano combined.

However, Busch has just one Top 10 in the last five Cup Series races, which came at Darlington two events ago. He’s slowed down from an early-season momentum that saw Busch pick up two Top 7s in the first three races of the year.

In 39 Talladega appearances, Busch has two wins, eight Top 5s, 10 top 10s, and a 20.2 average finish. He won this race in 2023, and was third in 2022. However, he has nine finishes of 18^th or worse in the last 11 Talladega events.

Although I like Busch more than Logano and Keselowski this weekend, I think he’s a Top 10 driver at best. I would skip him as well.

Austin Cindric +1400        

• Driver Standings: 22
• Win: 0
• Top 5: 0
• Top 10: 2

Austin Cindric is typically a solid superspeedway driver. At Talladega, he has one Top 5 and two Top 10s in six Cup appearances. He also has four finishes of 21^st or worse, which includes two in a row and three of the last four events at this venue.

Making things more difficult to trust Cindric this weekend, is the fact that he sits 22^nd in the standings and has just two Top 10s on the year.

With that said, I do like Cindric’s chances to crack the Top 10 this weekend. He was 8^th at Daytona in February and was 5^th in the fall Talladega race of 2023.

Chase Elliott +1400

• Driver Standings: 5
• Win: 0
• Top 5: 2
• Top 10: 5

I think Chase Elliott is being overlooked this weekend. He’s a forgotten man on Hendrick Motorsports as Larson and Byron have overshadowed him for the last two seasons.

Yet, Elliott comes into this weekend’s event sitting 5^th in the standings. He has two Top 5s and five Top 10s on the year, with a respectable 11.9 average finish. Elliott has two Top 8s in the last three races and also has an impressive resume at Talladega.

In 18 appearances at this venue, Elliott has two wins, five Top 5s, eight Top 10s, and a solid 14.6 average finish which is 4^th best among full-time Cup drivers.

He has three Top 7s in the last six events at this track and has finished the last nine Talladega races. I think Elliott is a Top 10 driver with a Top 5 ceiling this weekend. Yet, with a little good fortune, he could steal the checkered flag on Sunday.

William Byron +1500        

• Driver Standings: 1
• Win: 1
• Top 5: 4
• Top 10: 6

Despite not having won a race since the first week of the season, William Byron still remains at the top of the driver standings. And, he’s done that with a field leading average finish of 9.1. He also has the best average start at 9.7. And, Byron is tied for the most Top 10s with six.

Byron has finished every race and should’ve picked up a second victory at Darlington earlier this month. He led the most laps but ended up 2^nd overall. He has two Top 6s in a row and is poised for another this weekend.

William Byron has the second-best average finish at Talladega, four straight Top 7 results, and an 8.4 average finish over the last five spring Talladega races.

Byron leads all full-time Cup Series drivers with a 14.4 average finish at Talladega. He also has four consecutive Top 7 finishes and a 7.6 average finish over the last three seasons. Additionally, Byron has an 8.4 average finish over the last five Jack Link’s 500 (GEICO 500) races.

I think the #24 car is the one to beat on Sunday.

Kyle Larson +1500

• Driver Standings: 4
• Win: 2
• Top 5: 5
• Top 10: 6

As mentioned above, Kyle Larson absolutely dominated at Bristol two weeks ago. He finished 2^nd in the Truck race, won the Xfinity Series race, and dominated the Cup Series race. Of all the drivers, he was probably the one that was hurt the most by having a weekend off.

Larson’s Bristol domination bumped him up to 4^th in the standings where he has two wins, five Top 5s, six Top 10s and a 12.3 average finish. A suspension issue in Darlington two races ago, cost him points, spots and DNF on the season.

As a longtime Larson fan, I would be the first to tell you to avoid him on the superspeedways. Don’t believe me? Well, check out these numbers.

Larson has just two Top 5s, four Top 6s, and a 21.9 average finish in 20 Talladega starts. Even worse, he has just as many DNFs (6) as he does Top 5s and Top 10s combined.

Larson was 4^th in this race in 2022, so he has the potential to find his way into the Top 10. He duplicated that feat in last year’s second Talladega race. Unfortunately, those are his only two Top 10s in the last 14 appearances at this venue. He also has five DNFs over that span.

At best, Larson cracks the Top 10 this weekend. More than likely, he’s a Top 15 to Top 20 car that needs luck to have any kind of respectable result.

Denny Hamlin +1600       

• Driver Standings: 2
• Win: 2
• Top 5: 5
• Top 10: 6

Unlike Larson, Denny Hamlin has had plenty of success at Talladega. In 38 starts, he has two wins, 11 Top 5s, 17 Top 10s, and a 16.6 average finish. He also has six Top 10s in the last 10 Talladega races, which includes two in the last three and three in the last five events.

On the season, Hamlin sits second in the standings with two wins, five Top 5s, six Top 10s and a 9.7 average finish. Let’s put those numbers into perspective. Hamlin is tied for second most wins, tied for most Top 5s, tied for most Top 10s, and is second in average finish.

Furthermore, Hamlin is on a heater with five Top 5s in the last six Cup races this year including four in a row. Even more impressive, is the fact that he has three straight Top 2 results.

Hamlin won the Cookout 400 in Martinsville, the Goodyear 400 in Darlington, and was runner-up to Larson at Bristol. He came so close to winning three races in a row.

Hamlin has also won at Daytona three times, so he has five wins at the superspeedways. I think he can be a Top 5 driver on Sunday with a race-winning ceiling.

The Best Jack Link’s 500 Betting Value

The following drivers are my NASCAR picks for the best betting value in the Jack Link’s 500 based on their previous success at the Talladega Superspeedway:

Christopher Bell +2000

• Driver Standings: 3
• Win: 3
• Top 5: 5
• Top 10: 6

Christopher Bell sits third in the standings, but leads the Cup Series with three wins and is tied for the lead in Top 5s and Top 10s. Unlike Hamlin, Bell did win three races in a row from Atlanta to Phoenix earlier this season. He also has three consecutive Top 8 finishes on the season.

At Talladega, Bell has one Top 5, three Top 10s and a 19.5 average finish. He crashed out of this race last year. And, yet, I would still take him over Larson, Logano and Keselowski.

Bell does have two Top 8s in the last four Talladega races. In fact, if you throw out the crash last year, then he has a 9.3 average finish in the last three events at this venue.

The #20 car bounced back last year to finish 6^th in the second Talladega race. When you combine that with his stellar 2025 season to date, I think Bell offers value this weekend for his race-winning odds and definitely as a Top 10 driver (+120).

Alex Bowman +2500

• Driver Standings: 10
• Win: 0
• Top 5: 1
• Top 10: 5

Over his career, Talladega has not been kind to Alex Bowman as he has just two Top 5s, five Top 10s, and a 22.4 average finish in 18 starts. Yet, he was 5^th in this race last year and has a 9.0 average finish in the last three spring Talladega races.

Bowman has three bad results over the last three events on the season, which included engine troubles at Bristol. Yet, he’s second in Top 10s this year with five.

For me, Bowman’s value is in his Top 10 odds (+140). I think he can sneak in under the radar to crack the Top 10. I also wouldn’t be surprised if he somehow stole a Top 5 spot, just like he did last year in this race.

The Top Jack Link’s 500 Longshot

Erik Jones (+3500) is my longshot bet to win the Jack Link’s 500 race at Talladega this weekend. Currently, Jones sits 30^th in the driver standings which is a disappointment to the driver, team, and their fans.

However, the reason why I like Jones as a longshot this weekend is due to his success at Talladega over his Cup career. In 16 appearances, he has three Top 5s and eight Top 10s. More recently, Jones has five Top 10s in the last seven Talladega appearances.

Since this race is all about avoiding the wrecks, Jones has done fairy well at that task over the last handful of years. With a little bit of luck, a Top 10 car could win the race.

Jack Link’s 500 Predictions

My Top 5 drivers are Byron, Blaney, Elliott, Hamlin and Jones or Stenhouse Jr. I didn’t talk much about Stenhouse Jr. since he didn’t offer appealing betting value and wasn’t one of the favorites. But you have to keep an eye on him this weekend.

Stenhouse has two wins at Talladega in his career. And, his most recent win came last year in the fall race. Additionally, he finished 4^th in this spring Talladega race last season.

I will skip the explanation of why I’m eliminating others in the Top 5 and just go right to who I think will win. And, that’s William Byron.

I really like how he’s raced this season, and last year as well. Furthermore, he’s had success at Talladega over the last few years, especially in this race. With Daytona victories under his belt, I think he finally breaks through at Talladega to take the checkered flag.

Bet: William Byron (+1500)

NASCAR Jack Link’s 500 Prop Bets

The following NASCAR Jack Link’s 500 prop bets are courtesy of Bet365:

Either To Finish Top 3 at Talladega

I’m going with Hendrick Motorsports teammates for this prop bet. Alex Bowman is a bit more of a longshot here, and you could certainly replace him with one of the other Hendrick drivers like Elliott or Larson.

However, Bowman was 5^th in this race last year. And, he has a 9.0 average finish in this event over the last three years. William Byron has the second-best average finish at Talladega, four straight Top 7 results, and an 8.4 average finish over the last five spring Talladega races.

Bet: William Byron or Alex Bowman (+260)

The Best Top 5 Bet for the Jack Link’s 500

Ryan Blaney (+190) is my pick for the best Top 5 bet. He has three Top 2 finishes in the last five Talladega events and was Top 2 in both 2023 Talladega races. Blaney won this race in 2020. Although I don’t have him taking the checkered flag on Sunday, I do see Blaney finding a way to finish in the Top 5.

Bet: Ryan Blaney (+190)

The Best Top 10 Bet for the Jack Link’s 500

It should come as no surprise that William Byron (-130) is my choice for the best Top 10 bet. And, at -130 odds, we’re still getting incredible value.

Byron leads all full-time Cup Series drivers with a 14.4 average finish. He also has six Top 10s in 14 appearances. Byron has four consecutive Top 7 finishes and a 7.6 average finish over the last three years at this venue.

Bet: William Byron (-130)

Winning Manufacturer

• Chevrolet (+135)
• Ford (+150)
• Toyota (+270)

As mentioned above, Chevy holds the lead in manufacturer wins with 22. Ford comes in second at 15 and Toyota is a distant third with three wins. However, Toyota is the defending race winner and ended a near-decade long drought last year.

With that said, I like Chevy in this prop bet. Ford might have the three betting favorites but Chevy has just as many talented drivers that can win this race. And, with the way Ford’s top drivers have been competing this season, I have more confidence in Chevy’s top drivers.

Bet: Chevrolet (+135)

Team of Race Winner

• Team Penske (+350)
• Hendrick Motorsports (+375)
• Joe Gibbs Racing (+550)
• RFK Racing (+600)
• Spire Motorsports (+1000)
• 23XL Racing (+1000)
• Richard Childress Racing (+1000)
• Trackhouse Racing (+1400)
• Front Row Motorsports (+1600)

Is this the weekend that Team Penske finally picks up a win on the season. It could be, but I’m not going to bet on it. I’m also avoiding RFK Racing, Spire Motorsports and Richard Childress Racing. In fact, I only feel comfortable with JGR, 23XL, and Hendrick Motorsports for this Talladega NASCAR race.

Of those three, 23XL Racing is the defending winner but they have yet to win this season over the first nine races. Sure, they could pull it off on Sunday, but I’m not betting on it.

Joe Gibbs Racing might have five of the nine wins this year, but they haven’t won this Talladega race since 2014. I’m taking Hendrick by default. Although, William Byron has already won at Daytona this season and he’s proven to be highly efficient on the superspeedways.

Bet: Hendrick Motorsports (+375)

Winning Car Number

• Over 18.5 (-115)
• Under 18.5 (-115)

This is a tough one for Sunday’s race as there are an equal number of cars on both sides of the 18.5 O/U that could win.

However, I am leaning towards the under for this event. I think drivers like Chastain (1), Cindric (2), A. Dillon (3), Larson (5), Keselowski (6), Busch (8), Elliott (9), T. Dillon (10), Hamlin (11), and Blaney (12) give us the slightly better shot at winning this event.

Plus, it’s a great way to hedge our bets with Byron (24) as our predicted winner.

Bet: Under 18.5 (-115)