2026 NASCAR Pennzoil 400 presented by Jiffy Lube Odds and Predictions

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Las Vegas Motor Speedway on Sunday, March 15, for the Pennzoil 400 presented by Jiffy Lube. This is a 1.5-mile intermediate-track race, which means raw speed still matters, but so do clean pit cycles, long-run balance, and late-restart execution.

Vegas is not pure chaos, but it can still tighten the board. Green-flag pit windows, stage breaks, and restarts create enough swing that the top tier stays crowded, especially when several proven intermediates racers are all sitting between +500 and +1100.

There are a few obvious storylines here. Josh Berry returns as the defending spring winner, Joey Logano and Kyle Larson both bring deep Vegas résumés, and Tyler Reddick rolls in with the best early-season results profile in the field.

That leaves a familiar betting question: do you pay for the cleanest favorite, hunt the mid-tier for a repeatable path, or take a number on a driver who just needs to be in the right lane late?

For a broader look at the weekend card, check out our NASCAR picks this week coverage.

Pennzoil 400 presented by Jiffy Lube Race Profile

Las Vegas Motor Speedway is a 1.5-mile oval, and races here usually reward drivers who can maintain speed through long green-flag runs without burning up the right side too early. Track position matters, but this is still a place where fast cars can move forward if they stay connected to the right strategy and avoid losing ground on pit road.

The stress points are familiar. Restarts matter, pit execution matters, and the balance has to hold over a full run. That combination usually keeps the best intermediate-track teams near the front by the final stage.

• Total Miles: 400.5
• Total Laps: 267
• Stage 1: 80
• Stage 2: 80
• Final Stage: 107

The Pennzoil 400 starts at 4:00 p.m. ET on FS1, with PRN carrying radio coverage. Newer bettors can also review how to bet on NASCAR before diving into the Vegas card.

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Previous Pennzoil 400 presented by Jiffy Lube Winners

Vegas has produced a fairly strong mix of repeat contenders and opportunistic winners. Larson has owned a big share of the recent conversation here, but the spring race has also shown that if a driver gets the setup right and controls the final sequence, the board can open up.

2025 — Josh Berry

2024 — Kyle Larson

2023 — William Byron

2022 — Alex Bowman

2021 — Kyle Larson

Pennzoil 400 presented by Jiffy Lube Betting Odds

The outright board is deep, but the top is still doing most of the talking.

If you want the bigger picture beyond Las Vegas, our NASCAR championship odds page shows how this race could shift the futures board.

This is a moderately compressed top, not a true runaway board. The obvious pocket is the +900 to +1600 range, where proven Vegas drivers and strong intermediate-track profiles start to offer a better price-to-path equation than the shortest numbers. With the board set, it helps to compare it with our expert NASCAR picks before locking in outrights or placement bets.

Pennzoil 400 presented by Jiffy Lube Favorites

Favorites are priced as the most likely to contend, so the argument has to be cleaner than the story. Recent form still matters here, and our Phoenix odds and predictions page offers a useful baseline for how several top drivers were priced and trending coming into Las Vegas.

Kyle Larson (+500)

• Standings: 10th
• Wins: 0 confirmed

Larson makes immediate sense on this track type because Vegas usually rewards elite speed over a full run, and that is still his cleanest path. He also comes in off a third-place finish at Phoenix, so the recent form is at least pointed in the right direction.

The track history is the real case. He is a three-time Las Vegas winner, has the best average rating here over the last three seasons, and led 129 laps here last fall before finishing second. That is not just comfort. That is repeatable front-running pace.

For him to cash, the race likely needs to stay relatively honest. He does not need chaos. He needs a fast car, clean stops, and enough track position to control the final stage.

Christopher Bell (+700)

• Standings: 6th
• Wins: 0 confirmed

Bell fits the profile of a driver who can win this race without needing the whole event to break strangely. His form on this style of track has been solid, and his outright number is still workable because he is priced behind Larson and Hamlin.

The Vegas résumé is strong. Bell has two runner-up finishes in his last five Vegas starts, led 61 laps here in spring 2023 and 155 in spring 2024, finished third here last fall, and has four Top 5s in his last six Vegas races.

The condition is simple: he has to convert. The speed has shown up often enough here. He just needs the late-race sequence to land in his lane.

The Best Pennzoil 400 presented by Jiffy Lube Betting Value

This section is about price vs path to contention.

Joey Logano (+1100)

• Standings: 7th
• Wins: 0 confirmed in 2026

At this number, Logano is one of the clearest value plays on the board. Vegas has consistently been one of his best tracks, and he does not need dominant weekly form to become dangerous here.

The history is hard to ignore. He is a four-time Vegas winner, has more than 580 laps led here, won twice in the Next Gen era, and has led at least one lap in six of the last seven Vegas races. That is exactly the kind of repeatable track fit that matters in this range.

His path is straightforward. Stay in the top 10 early, keep the car balanced on the long run, and give himself a shot on late restarts.

Ryan Blaney (+900)

• Standings: 2nd
• Wins: 1

Blaney is not far enough down the board to be called a true sleeper, but the price is still fair relative to his current form. He is coming off a win at Phoenix, and momentum matters when the car and team are already executing clean weekends.

The Vegas record is a little more uneven lately, which is part of the pricing. He has a history of top-five finishes here, but also three straight Vegas finishes outside the top 30 after race-ending issues. That cuts both ways. The upside is real, but the number reflects some recent volatility.

He wins this race if the clean version of his weekend shows up. He does not need to dominate the whole day. He needs to be alive in the final stage.

Ross Chastain (+1600)

• Standings: 23rd
• Wins: 0 confirmed in 2026

This is where the board starts to get interesting. Chastain is long enough to matter, but the Vegas case is much stronger than the number suggests.

Since joining Trackhouse in 2022, he has led 167 laps at Vegas and posted five Top 5s in eight starts here. He also has six top-five finishes in the eight Vegas races of the Next Gen era and the best average finish in the field over that span.

The path is real because it is repeatable. Chastain does not need chaos. He needs the usual Vegas script: stay close enough on speed, execute on pit road, and be in the first few rows late.

The Top Pennzoil 400 presented by Jiffy Lube Longshot

Josh Berry (+4000)

Berry is long enough to matter because this number is built more on overall profile than on this specific race. But this is the defending spring winner, and that alone gives him a cleaner lane than most drivers in this range.

The win condition is not complicated. Hang around the lead group, avoid giving away track position on pit road, and make sure the car is still there in the final stage. At 1.5 miles, that is enough to justify a look at this price.

Pennzoil 400 presented by Jiffy Lube Predictions

The late-race pool is fairly easy to sketch out. Larson, Bell, Hamlin, Logano, Blaney, and Chastain all have credible paths to matter when the race tightens up. That is what makes this board interesting. There are several drivers who can win without forcing the case.

Larson has the best track résumé of the top tier. Bell brings one of the strongest recent Vegas performance profiles. Hamlin and Logano both offer proven race-management value at this track, while Blaney and Chastain sit in useful price pockets if you want a bit more room on the number.

The final call comes down to the best mix of ceiling and track-specific repeatability. Bell has been fast enough here too often to ignore, and at +700 the number is still playable in a field where several favorites are clustered together.

Pick: Christopher Bell (+700)

Pennzoil 400 presented by Jiffy Lube Prop Bets

Top 5 Finish: Christopher Bell

Bell has been one of the most consistent Vegas performers in the field, and this market gives a little more margin than the outright. If the speed shows up again, he does not need everything to break perfectly to cash this ticket.

That matters here. Vegas can still punish one bad sequence, so a Top 5 number is often the cleaner way to back a front-tier car.

Pick: Christopher Bell Top 5 (+120)

Top 5 Finish: Denny Hamlin

Hamlin’s Vegas profile is built on staying relevant all day. He has won here, piled up Top 10s here, and typically keeps himself in the fight on this track type.

At plus money, this is a strong way to play the track history without needing him to close the outright.

Pick: Denny Hamlin Top 5 (+140)

Top 5 Finish: Ryan Blaney

Blaney’s current form gives this market some extra life. He is coming off a win, sits second in the standings, and has enough Vegas upside to justify the number even with some recent bad finishes here.

This is a better way to play him than demanding the full race win. The path to a top-five run is cleaner than the path to a perfect Sunday.

Pick: Ryan Blaney Top 5 (+160)

Top 10 Finish: William Byron

Byron’s Vegas profile is still stronger than one bad fall result suggests. He won here in spring 2023, and his run of strong starting spots and recent Top 10 history on this track gives him a solid floor.

For this market, the ask is reasonable. He does not need to control the race. He just needs to keep the day clean.

Pick: William Byron Top 10 (-210)

Top 10 Finish: Tyler Reddick

Reddick has been the best early-season results driver in the field, and that matters even if the Vegas-specific note set is lighter than it is for Larson or Bell. Fast teams carry form into these intermediate weeks.

This is a pragmatic market. You are paying for consistency, not just for an outright ceiling.

Pick: Tyler Reddick Top 10 (-200)

Winning Manufacturer

• Chevrolet
• Toyota
• Ford

The manufacturer market is useful here because the top of the board is spread across all three camps. Chevrolet has Larson and Byron, Toyota has Hamlin, Bell, and Reddick, and Ford has Blaney and Logano.

Toyota gets the nod because it owns multiple front-tier paths, and Bell plus Hamlin give it two of the cleanest Vegas cases on the board.

Pick: Toyota