Super Bowl MVP Odds and Predictions 2027: MVP Watchlist

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Super Bowl MVP Odds and Predictions remain an early-season projection market as the 2026 NFL regular season approaches. The Los Angeles Rams have created clear separation as the Super Bowl LXI favorite, immediately placing Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua and even defensive star Myles Garrett near the top of our projected MVP watchlist.

Buffalo, Baltimore and defending champion Seattle form the next championship tier. That makes Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Sam Darnold the most important quarterback alternatives to Stafford.

The market then becomes considerably deeper. Kansas City, Philadelphia, New England and the Los Angeles Chargers all sit in a range where Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Drake Maye and Justin Herbert can become major Super Bowl MVP candidates without requiring their teams to pull off an enormous futures upset.

One critical distinction remains necessary before placing an early Super Bowl MVP wager. Full individual player odds are still not consistently posted across major sportsbooks. The best way to analyze the award today is to begin with current Super Bowl championship probability and then determine which player is most likely to receive credit if that team wins.

Our early Super Bowl LXI MVP prediction remains Matthew Stafford. The Rams are approximately +500 to +550 to win the championship, Stafford is the reigning NFL regular-season MVP and Los Angeles remains built around an elite passing attack.

Josh Allen remains our preferred AFC candidate, Puka Nacua is our favorite non-quarterback option and Jalen Hurts is the most interesting former winner outside the current top-four championship teams. Garrett remains the defensive longshot to monitor once a complete player market becomes available.

Super Bowl MVP Odds Update

The Super Bowl MVP market is still different from a traditional futures board because a complete list of individual player prices is not broadly available.

That is normal this early in the NFL calendar. All 32 teams remain alive, meaning sportsbooks would have to price hundreds of players whose teams may never come close to reaching Super Bowl LXI.

The Super Bowl championship market therefore becomes our most useful early indicator.

Los Angeles has strengthened from approximately +550 during the previous ScoresAndStats update to +500 at multiple sportsbooks. The Rams are the only team consistently priced shorter than +1000.

Buffalo remains approximately +1000. Baltimore ranges from +1000 to +1300, while defending champion Seattle is around +1100.

Kansas City, Philadelphia, New England and the Chargers create the next tier. That expands the viable quarterback pool beyond Stafford, Allen, Jackson and Darnold without forcing bettors toward true championship longshots.

The full championship market and team-by-team analysis are available in the ScoresAndStats Super Bowl Odds and Predictions guide.

Current Super Bowl LXI Team Odds

Team probability matters more than almost any individual statistic when betting Super Bowl MVP months in advance.

A player from a +500 championship favorite has a fundamentally larger path to the award than an equally talented player on a +5000 team.

The Rams currently own that advantage. Buffalo, Baltimore and Seattle make up the next tier, followed by a large cluster of teams between approximately +1500 and +2200.

That second cluster is important because Super Bowl MVP prices can become extremely valuable if bettors correctly identify a quarterback whose team is being underestimated in the championship market.

Super Bowl LXI Date and Location

Super Bowl LXI will be played Sunday, February 14, 2027, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.

SoFi previously hosted Super Bowl LVI, when the Rams defeated Cincinnati 23-20.

Cooper Kupp won MVP in that game after catching eight passes for 92 yards and two touchdowns, including the game-winning score.

That history is directly relevant to the current market. Los Angeles is again the championship favorite and could become one of the rare teams with an opportunity to win a Super Bowl inside its home stadium.

It also reinforces the case for Nacua. Stafford can lead the Rams to victory without automatically winning MVP if one receiver dominates the game’s decisive possessions.

Early Super Bowl MVP Contenders for 2027

Quarterbacks still dominate our projected Super Bowl MVP board because quarterback performance and team victory are so closely connected.

Stafford ranks first because the Rams have more championship probability than any other team. Allen and Jackson follow as the strongest AFC candidates.

Darnold remains highly relevant because Seattle is defending its championship and still sits around +1100 to repeat.

The next tier is more interesting. Nacua has a realistic path to winning without Stafford playing poorly. Hurts has already won the award. Mahomes owns three Pete Rozelle Trophies, while Herbert and Maye represent quarterbacks attached to credible AFC contenders with large individual statistical ceilings.

Matthew Stafford Super Bowl MVP Prediction

Matthew Stafford remains our early prediction to win Super Bowl LXI MVP.

The most important factor is team probability. The Rams are approximately +500 to win the championship and no other team is currently shorter than +1000.

That creates an enormous structural advantage for every Los Angeles MVP candidate.

Stafford is also coming off the best individual regular season of his career. He won the 2025 NFL MVP after throwing for 4,707 yards and 46 touchdowns while directing one of football’s most explosive offenses.

Nacua produced 1,715 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns, while Los Angeles also has enough rushing production to prevent defenses from treating every important down as an obvious passing situation.

The case against Stafford is award competition from his own roster.

The Rams already experienced that exact scenario in Super Bowl LVI. Stafford threw three touchdown passes in the victory, but Kupp won MVP because his receiving production included the decisive fourth-quarter touchdown.

Nacua can produce the same type of vote split. Garrett can also enter the conversation if the game becomes defensive.

Stafford nevertheless remains the cleanest player-team combination on the board.

Early Super Bowl LXI MVP Prediction: Matthew Stafford.

Josh Allen Super Bowl MVP Prediction

Josh Allen remains our preferred AFC Super Bowl MVP candidate.

Buffalo is approximately +1000 to win Super Bowl LXI, putting the Bills firmly inside the league’s top championship tier.

Buffalo is approximately +1000 to win Super Bowl LXI, putting the Bills firmly inside the league’s top championship tier.

More importantly, almost every realistic Buffalo championship scenario places Allen at the center of the result.

His rushing ability makes him especially valuable in an MVP market. A quarterback who throws two touchdowns and runs for two more creates a stronger award profile than a traditional passer with similar yardage.

Allen also reduces the chances of a Buffalo running back stealing the award because so many short-yardage and goal-line opportunities can remain with the quarterback.

The obstacle is reaching the game. Buffalo’s recent playoff teams have repeatedly entered January as serious contenders without breaking through to the Super Bowl.

If the Bills finally reach Los Angeles, Allen would almost certainly become one of the shortest individual MVP options in the matchup.

Best AFC Super Bowl MVP Candidate: Josh Allen.

Lamar Jackson Super Bowl MVP Prediction

Lamar Jackson offers essentially the same type of MVP ceiling as Allen with an even more explosive rushing profile.

Baltimore can be found between approximately +1000 and +1300 to win Super Bowl LXI.

The longest number makes Jackson particularly interesting from a projected future-value perspective because a Ravens championship would almost certainly require him to solve the postseason questions that have followed his career.

That narrative matters in an MVP vote.

If Jackson reaches his first Super Bowl and wins behind 250 passing yards, 70 rushing yards and multiple total touchdowns, there may be very little realistic competition for the award.

The problem remains the same as previous seasons: the Ravens must survive the AFC before the individual market becomes relevant.

Highest Dual-Threat MVP Upside: Lamar Jackson.

Sam Darnold Super Bowl MVP Prediction

Sam Darnold has a stronger early Super Bowl MVP case than his regular-season individual award price might suggest.

Seattle is approximately +1100 to repeat as champion, making the Seahawks one of the four shortest teams on the Super Bowl board.

Darnold did not win MVP in Super Bowl LX because Walker controlled the game with 161 scrimmage yards.

That specific obstacle is now gone. Walker left Seattle and signed with Kansas City during free agency.

The passing offense can therefore command a larger share of Seattle’s championship narrative if the Seahawks return.

Smith-Njigba remains a serious threat to take votes away from Darnold, especially after leading the NFL in receiving yards last season.

Still, a Seattle repeat built around three Darnold touchdown passes would make the quarterback the natural favorite.

Seattle Super Bowl MVP Prediction: Sam Darnold.

Puka Nacua Super Bowl MVP Prediction

Puka Nacua remains our favorite early non-quarterback Super Bowl MVP candidate.

The first requirement for a longshot MVP candidate is playing for a team with a realistic chance to reach the game.

Nacua has the best possible setup because the Rams are the championship favorite.

His individual production is already elite. Nacua caught 129 passes for 1,715 yards and 10 touchdowns last season while adding another 105 yards and a touchdown on the ground.

A Super Bowl MVP scenario does not require Stafford to struggle.

The realistic outcome is Stafford playing well while Nacua catches eight or nine passes, exceeds 100 yards, scores twice and produces the most memorable late-game play.

Kupp already proved that a Rams receiver can win the award over Stafford under exactly that type of game script.

When full player odds eventually open, the gap between Stafford and Nacua will be critical. Nacua becomes much more appealing if bettors receive several times the potential payout.

Best Non-Quarterback Super Bowl MVP Candidate: Puka Nacua.

Jalen Hurts Super Bowl MVP Prediction

Jalen Hurts deserves more attention than his team’s position outside the top four might initially suggest.

Philadelphia can be found between approximately +1600 and +1800 to win Super Bowl LXI.

Hurts already owns a Super Bowl MVP trophy after producing three total touchdowns in Philadelphia’s Super Bowl LIX victory.

His rushing role creates the same structural advantage that makes Allen and Jackson so appealing. Hurts can account for multiple touchdowns without needing an enormous passing-yard total.

The Eagles also have enough offensive talent to reach the Super Bowl without forcing every regular-season game through their quarterback.

That can suppress Hurts’ season-long statistical perception while doing very little to reduce his single-game Super Bowl MVP ceiling.

If Philadelphia’s championship odds remain in the +1600 to +1800 range when individual MVP futures begin appearing, Hurts could provide one of the best combinations of team value and award pedigree.

Best Former-Winner MVP Candidate: Jalen Hurts.

Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl MVP Prediction

Patrick Mahomes cannot be ignored in any Super Bowl MVP market.

He has already won the award three times and owns one of the strongest postseason résumés of any quarterback in NFL history.

Kansas City currently sits around +1500 to +1700 to win Super Bowl LXI, considerably longer than the Chiefs were priced during their peak championship seasons.

That creates potential value if Mahomes is healthy and Kansas City returns to its normal postseason level.

The Chiefs have also given him a very different backfield by signing Walker, the reigning Super Bowl MVP.

Walker can improve Kansas City’s overall offense while simultaneously reducing Mahomes’ individual MVP share if the Chiefs win through the running game.

Mahomes nevertheless remains the most likely Kansas City recipient because quarterbacks receive natural credit for late-game drives and championship-winning possessions.

Championship Pedigree MVP Candidate: Patrick Mahomes.

Justin Herbert Super Bowl MVP Prediction

Justin Herbert is the most important addition to our updated MVP watchlist.

The Chargers are approximately +1600 to +1800 to win the Super Bowl, placing them in the same championship range as Kansas City, Philadelphia and New England.

Herbert also remains one of the leading regular-season MVP candidates, which demonstrates how highly the market views his individual ceiling.

The Super Bowl MVP case is simple.

If the Chargers finally produce a deep postseason breakthrough, Herbert is overwhelmingly likely to receive the offensive credit unless the game turns into a defensive struggle or a running back produces an extraordinary performance.

Unlike Mahomes or Stafford, Herbert does not have multiple established teammates with obvious Super Bowl MVP narratives already attached to them.

That concentration makes him a strong player to monitor when individual futures open.

Updated Midrange QB Watch: Justin Herbert.

Drake Maye Super Bowl MVP Prediction

Drake Maye remains one of the most intriguing midrange quarterback candidates.

New England reached Super Bowl LX last season and is now available between approximately +1600 and +2000 to return and win.

Maye also finished second to Stafford in one of the closest NFL MVP votes in league history.

That combination gives him both demonstrated individual production and a recent team path to the championship game.

The Patriots lost Super Bowl LX because Seattle controlled the game defensively and limited Maye’s offense.

If New England returns and Maye flips that result, the redemption narrative would make him extremely difficult to beat for MVP unless another Patriots player creates an extraordinary scoring or defensive performance.

Midrange AFC MVP Candidate: Drake Maye.

Can Kenneth Walker III Win Super Bowl MVP Again?

Kenneth Walker III enters the season with one of the most unusual MVP profiles in recent Super Bowl history.

Walker won Super Bowl LX MVP after rushing for 135 yards on 27 carries and adding 26 receiving yards in Seattle’s 29-13 victory over New England.

He became the first running back to win the award since Terrell Davis nearly three decades earlier.

Walker then left the defending champion and signed with Kansas City.

That move gives him an opportunity to become one of the rare players capable of winning Super Bowl MVP with different franchises in consecutive seasons.

The Chiefs have also discussed expanding his receiving role, which would give Walker more ways to produce an MVP-level scrimmage-yard total.

The obstacle is Mahomes. A Kansas City championship naturally begins with the quarterback in MVP voting unless Walker clearly dominates the game.

That means Walker will require a much larger eventual individual price than Mahomes before becoming attractive.

Reigning MVP Watch: Kenneth Walker III, but only at a substantial price premium over Mahomes.

Myles Garrett Defensive Super Bowl MVP Longshot

Myles Garrett remains our favorite defensive player to monitor for Super Bowl MVP.

Los Angeles acquired Garrett after he set the NFL single-season sack record with 23 and won Defensive Player of the Year.

The important difference between Garrett and most defensive longshots is team probability.

A defensive player on a 50-1 Super Bowl team can offer enormous individual odds while still having almost no realistic path to the game.

Garrett plays for the +500 championship favorite.

That makes his route much more credible. The likely winning script would require a lower-scoring Rams victory in which Garrett produces multiple sacks, creates a turnover and generates one of the game’s decisive plays.

Defensive MVP bets should still be treated as small longshots because even a strong defensive performance can lose the award to a quarterback with two or three touchdowns.

Best Defensive Super Bowl MVP Longshot: Myles Garrett.

Super Bowl MVP Position Trends

Quarterbacks remain the starting point for Super Bowl MVP analysis.

Quarterbacks have won the award 34 times through 60 Super Bowls. That represents more individual victories than every other offensive position combined.

Running backs and wide receivers have each produced eight MVP performances. Defensive players account for 10 individual winners, while Desmond Howard remains the only player to win primarily through return-game impact.

Super Bowl XII produced the only co-MVP result, which is why the number of individual winners exceeds the number of games.

Walker’s victory last season is especially instructive. Running backs had gone 28 years without winning the award, but one dominant rushing performance immediately overpowered the normal quarterback bias.

Recent Super Bowl MVP Winners

Recent results show why quarterbacks deserve priority without completely eliminating longshot skill players.

Walker broke the long running-back drought in Super Bowl LX. Hurts won the year before, while Mahomes captured consecutive awards after Super Bowls LVII and LVIII.

Kupp remains the most recent wide receiver winner after his Super Bowl LVI performance for the Rams.

How to Bet Super Bowl MVP Futures

Start With the Winning Team

The first step is deciding which team you believe will win Super Bowl LXI.

Only one player has ever won Super Bowl MVP from the losing team. Building an individual prediction without first projecting the game winner creates unnecessary risk.

Compare MVP Odds With Team Odds

When full player markets open, compare the individual price with the team’s championship price.

If Stafford eventually offers only a small payout premium over the Rams to win the Super Bowl, simply betting Los Angeles may provide cleaner value because Nacua, Garrett or another teammate could take the MVP.

The opposite can be true for Allen. Buffalo has fewer obvious candidates capable of taking offensive credit away from its quarterback, potentially making Allen worth a smaller premium.

Do Not Automatically Bet the Quarterback

Quarterbacks win most often, but that does not make every QB the best value.

A receiver or running back can become much more attractive when sportsbooks price the quarterback extremely short and the offense has another player capable of producing two touchdowns or 150 scrimmage yards.

Treat Defensive Players as Game-Script Bets

A defensive MVP ticket is really a prediction about how the Super Bowl will unfold.

Garrett needs more than Los Angeles winning. He likely needs the Rams to win a relatively low-scoring game in which sacks, turnovers and defensive pressure become the dominant story.

Shop the Longshot Prices

The largest sportsbook differences usually appear on receivers, running backs and defensive players.

A quarterback may differ by only a few hundred points between sportsbooks, while a defensive candidate can be priced dramatically differently.

Current operators can be compared through the ScoresAndStats sportsbook reviews.

Wait When the Market Is Incomplete

There is no need to force an individual wager simply because Super Bowl team odds are available.

The regular season will provide more information about injuries, offensive roles, playoff seeding and which teams are actually capable of reaching Los Angeles.

Weekly form and matchup information can be followed throughout the season through the ScoresAndStats NFL previews and predictions.

Previous Super Bowl MVP Picks Update

The previous August update identified Stafford as the early prediction, Allen as the preferred AFC candidate, Nacua as the best non-quarterback option, Maye as the midrange quarterback and Garrett as the defensive longshot.

Those core positions remain valid.

Stafford’s case has actually strengthened because the Rams moved from approximately +550 to +500 at several sportsbooks.

Allen remains tied to the strongest AFC championship probability. Baltimore’s wider +1000 to +1300 range gives Jackson an increasingly interesting team-value case as well.

Nacua remains the top non-quarterback because Los Angeles combines the shortest team odds with an offense capable of generating massive receiver volume.

Maye remains attractive, but Herbert moves onto the primary watchlist because the Chargers now sit in essentially the same championship tier as New England.

Hurts also deserves an upgrade. Philadelphia’s +1600 to +1800 championship range is long enough to create value, and Hurts has already demonstrated exactly how his rushing production can win this award.

Quarterback futures can also be compared with the ScoresAndStats NFL MVP Odds and Predictions board before deciding whether a player offers better value in a regular-season award or Super Bowl market.

Final Super Bowl MVP Predictions for 2027

Stafford remains the most logical early Super Bowl LXI MVP prediction because Los Angeles owns the league’s strongest championship probability and the Rams remain built around a high-volume passing offense.

Allen is our preferred AFC candidate. If Buffalo finally breaks through, his combination of passing and rushing touchdowns creates an extremely direct path to the trophy.

Jackson provides similar dual-threat upside with a potentially better underlying team price at sportsbooks offering Baltimore around +1300.

Nacua is the non-quarterback to monitor most closely. He plays for the favorite, has already produced a 1,700-yard season and can win the award with the same type of receiver-heavy championship performance that earned Kupp the trophy at SoFi Stadium five years earlier.

Hurts is our most interesting former-winner value candidate. Mahomes remains the championship-pedigree option, while Herbert and Maye provide strong midrange quarterback alternatives.

Walker has the most fascinating repeat story after moving from Seattle to Kansas City. Garrett remains the defensive longshot because the Rams give him far more team probability than most players likely to receive enormous individual MVP odds.

None of those rankings should be treated as a recommendation to accept an unknown future price. The individual odds matter, and the market is not complete enough yet to identify the strongest price-based wager.

Our Early Super Bowl LXI MVP Prediction: Matthew Stafford.

Our Best AFC Super Bowl MVP Candidate: Josh Allen.

Our Best Non-Quarterback Candidate: Puka Nacua.

Our Best Former-Winner Candidate: Jalen Hurts.

Our Best Defensive Longshot: Myles Garrett.

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