NFL MVP Odds and Predictions 2026: Best Futures Bets

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NFL MVP Odds enter the final weeks before the 2026 regular season with Josh Allen still leading a deep quarterback-heavy futures market. Allen is available around +550 to +650 depending on the sportsbook, with Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Drake Maye, Patrick Mahomes and reigning MVP Matthew Stafford all sitting within striking distance.

The most interesting value may not belong to the favorite. Stafford remains available around +1400 at some sportsbooks even though the Los Angeles Rams are the clear Super Bowl LXI favorite. Joe Burrow has shortened significantly after opening at a longer price, while Caleb Williams is attracting enough support to move into the second tier of contenders.

Our NFL MVP prediction still begins with Allen as the safest candidate, but Stafford is now our preferred futures value at +1400 or better. Burrow is our favorite first-time MVP candidate, Herbert remains a strong value option and Sam Darnold offers one of the most interesting longer-priced paths because Seattle enters the season as the defending Super Bowl champion.

This updated NFL MVP odds and predictions guide breaks down the current market, odds movement, leading candidates, best value bets, longshots, historical trends and our final 2026 MVP betting card.

NFL MVP Odds Update

The NFL MVP market remains dominated by quarterbacks, but the prices have changed enough since the previous ScoresAndStats update to create several new betting decisions.

Allen remains the favorite and can generally be found between +550 and +650. Jackson sits in the +650 to +850 range, while Burrow has shortened toward +850 to +1000 after receiving substantial offseason betting support.

Herbert, Maye and Mahomes form the next major cluster near +1000. Stafford is one of the most sportsbook-dependent candidates on the board, with prices ranging from approximately +900 to +1400. That difference makes line shopping particularly important before backing the reigning MVP.

Caleb Williams has also moved closer to the favorites after his breakout 2025 season and playoff run. Dak Prescott, Jordan Love, Brock Purdy, Trevor Lawrence, Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts and Sam Darnold form the next tier.

The broader championship market is important when evaluating these futures because MVP winners overwhelmingly come from winning teams. The latest team prices and championship predictions can be reviewed in our Super Bowl odds and predictions.

Current NFL MVP Odds 2026

The current NFL MVP board offers a clear favorite but no overwhelming choice. Allen’s price implies that the market believes he is the most likely winner, but even +550 represents an implied probability below 16% before accounting for sportsbook margin.

That creates plenty of room for value elsewhere. Stafford is particularly unusual because his Rams have much shorter championship odds than most of the teams associated with players ahead of him in the MVP market.

Burrow presents the opposite situation. Cincinnati is priced much longer in the Super Bowl market, but bettors are aggressively backing Burrow individually because his statistical ceiling is among the highest in football.

Odds can vary by hundreds of points between sportsbooks, especially once the market moves beyond the first five or six quarterbacks. That makes the exact available price as important as the player prediction itself.

NFL MVP Market Movement

Several important prices have changed since the previous July update.

Burrow has produced one of the strongest positive moves. His price has shortened toward +850 at some sportsbooks as bettors back a healthy return to the passing numbers that made him a serious MVP candidate in previous seasons.

Jackson has moved slightly longer at some operators, creating a better entry point than the shortest prices available earlier in the summer. Allen remains relatively stable as the favorite.

Stafford remains the most unusual market. Some sportsbooks have him near +900 while others continue to offer +1400. A five-point difference in price is significant on a normal wager; a 500-point difference on an MVP future is enormous.

Williams has also attracted support after entering the offseason as a longer candidate. His price now reaches as short as +1200 on some boards.

Last season also showed why August prices can be valuable. Stafford entered the 2025 season around +3500 before winning the award, while Maye was approximately +5000 before finishing only five voting points behind him.

That does not mean bettors should blindly chase 30-1 quarterbacks. It means the market can underestimate how quickly a strong team season, improved offense and national narrative can transform an MVP candidate.

Josh Allen NFL MVP Prediction

Josh Allen remains the safest NFL MVP prediction entering 2026.

Allen already won the award in 2024 and remains the centerpiece of a Buffalo team priced among the strongest Super Bowl contenders. His combination of passing production and rushing touchdowns gives him an immediate statistical advantage over pocket-only quarterbacks.

That dual-threat production matters because MVP voting often comes down to total offensive impact rather than passing yards alone. Allen can finish behind another quarterback in passing touchdowns and compensate by scoring double-digit times on the ground.

The Bills also provide the team profile voters normally reward. Buffalo is expected to challenge for the AFC East and a top conference seed, which means Allen should have repeated opportunities to build his résumé in nationally televised games.

The biggest concern is price. At +550, bettors are buying the most obvious candidate at the shortest number on the board.

There is also mild voter-fatigue risk because Allen won only two seasons ago. He may need a clearly superior season rather than winning a close comparison against a first-time candidate such as Burrow or Herbert.

We prefer +600 or longer. At +550, Allen remains the best prediction but not necessarily the best wager.

Best Favorite: Josh Allen at +600 or better.

Matthew Stafford NFL MVP Prediction

Matthew Stafford is our best NFL MVP value at +1400 or better.

Stafford enters as the reigning MVP after leading the NFL with 4,707 passing yards and 46 touchdown passes in 2025. He also threw only eight interceptions while directing one of the league’s most productive offenses.

The team situation may be even stronger in 2026. Los Angeles is the clear Super Bowl favorite after improving a roster that already finished 12-5 and reached the NFC Championship Game last season.

That creates an unusually strong relationship between Stafford’s individual price and his team’s championship price. The Rams can be found around +550 to win Super Bowl LXI, yet Stafford remains available at more than twice that number in some MVP markets.

Puka Nacua, Davante Adams and Kyren Williams give Stafford an elite collection of proven offensive weapons. If Los Angeles finishes with 13 or 14 wins while Stafford again approaches 40 touchdown passes, his repeat case becomes extremely difficult to ignore.

The obvious concern is voter fatigue. Winning consecutive MVP awards is difficult, and voters may prefer a new winner if Stafford’s statistics decline meaningfully from his 2025 numbers.

That is why the sportsbook matters so much. Stafford near +900 is less attractive. Stafford at +1400 provides enough additional return to compensate for the repeat-award risk.

Best NFL MVP Value: Matthew Stafford at +1400 or better.

Joe Burrow NFL MVP Prediction

Joe Burrow is our favorite candidate to win his first NFL MVP award.

Burrow’s individual production has never been the primary problem. When healthy, he has repeatedly demonstrated the ability to challenge for the league lead in passing yards, touchdowns and completion percentage.

He led the NFL in both passing yards and passing touchdowns in 2024 before an injury-shortened 2025 season limited him to eight games.

The current market reflects confidence in a bounce-back. Burrow has shortened from longer opening prices toward +850 to +1000.

Ja’Marr Chase gives him one of the best receivers in football, and Cincinnati’s offensive identity remains built around Burrow creating explosive plays through the passing game.

The biggest obstacle is team success. Burrow can throw for 4,700 yards and still struggle to win MVP if Cincinnati finishes 9-8 and enters the postseason as a wild card.

The Bengals need to win the AFC North or finish close to the top of the conference for Burrow’s statistical case to carry maximum weight.

The lack of a previous MVP can work in his favor if the race is close. A first-time winner leading a major Cincinnati rebound creates a strong narrative.

Best First-Time MVP Bet: Joe Burrow at +900 or better.

Lamar Jackson NFL MVP Prediction

Lamar Jackson remains one of the most dangerous MVP candidates whenever Baltimore is healthy.

Jackson already owns two MVP awards and remains one of the most efficient dual-threat quarterbacks in NFL history. His rushing production allows him to create a statistical profile that pocket passers cannot easily duplicate.

The 2025 season was disrupted by injuries, making his current price partly a bet that he returns to a full schedule and normal rushing effectiveness.

Baltimore’s team outlook remains extremely important. The Ravens are priced alongside Buffalo as one of the strongest AFC teams, giving Jackson a realistic path to 12 or more wins and a top seed.

The problem is price relative to award history. Jackson has already won twice, meaning another close statistical race against Burrow, Herbert or Maye could produce voter preference for a new name.

At +650, we would rather look elsewhere. At +800 or +850, the risk-to-reward profile becomes significantly stronger.

Lamar Jackson Betting View: Playable at +800 or better.

Justin Herbert NFL MVP Prediction

Justin Herbert was our final MVP pick in the previous update and remains one of the best candidates around +1000.

The case still depends heavily on the Chargers making a meaningful jump in the standings. Herbert has already produced elite quarterback seasons, but individual passing talent alone has not been enough to push him into the center of an MVP race.

The offensive environment has improved. Los Angeles expects to have both starting offensive tackles healthy, while Mike McDaniel adds another creative element to the offensive structure.

Herbert also received a first-place MVP vote last season, showing that at least some voters already view him as capable of reaching the award’s highest level.

The challenge is the AFC West. Kansas City and Denver provide legitimate competition, and the Chargers may need to win the division for Herbert to separate from Allen, Jackson and Burrow.

The +1000 price remains fair, but Stafford’s +1400 availability now provides a stronger combination of team probability and payout. That moves Herbert from our final pick to a secondary value bet.

Secondary MVP Value: Justin Herbert at +1000 or better.

Drake Maye NFL MVP Prediction

Drake Maye came within one first-place vote and five total voting points of winning the 2025 NFL MVP award.

That makes his current +1000 to +1100 range unusually interesting. Bettors are not projecting an unknown breakout player. They are backing someone who already demonstrated that voters were prepared to put him at the top of the ballot.

New England also reached Super Bowl LX, strengthening the argument that Maye can produce elite statistics on a championship-level team.

The concern is regression. Last season created extremely high expectations, and opponents now have an entire offseason of film to build game plans around what New England did successfully.

Maye also needs his raw passing production to remain high enough to compete with Allen, Burrow and Stafford. Team record alone will not win the award if another quarterback produces dramatically better statistics.

We prefer +1100 rather than +1000 because the difference gives a little more compensation for sophomore-regression risk within his current offensive structure.

Best Young QB MVP Bet: Drake Maye at +1100 or better.

Patrick Mahomes NFL MVP Prediction

Patrick Mahomes remains impossible to ignore even after Kansas City’s disappointing 2025 season.

Mahomes has already won the award twice and owns the type of national profile that keeps him in the MVP conversation whenever the Chiefs are near the top of the AFC standings.

The biggest issue is health. Mahomes is returning from a serious knee injury suffered late last season, and bettors must be confident that he can play a full schedule at something close to his normal mobility and efficiency.

Kansas City has also changed the offense around him, including the addition of reigning Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III. A stronger running game could make the Chiefs more efficient while reducing the extreme passing volume normally associated with an MVP campaign.

Mahomes near +1000 is difficult to prioritize over healthier quarterbacks. At +1200 or +1300, the championship pedigree becomes more attractive.

Mahomes Betting View: Target +1200 or better rather than chasing +1000.

Caleb Williams NFL MVP Prediction

Caleb Williams has made one of the more interesting moves on the current MVP board.

Chicago’s improvement last season created a legitimate MVP foundation. Williams is no longer being priced only on draft pedigree or potential. Bettors have now seen him lead a winning team and produce high-leverage playoff football.

His current +1200 to +1500 price requires another major step. The Bears need to remain near the top of the NFC North, while Williams must improve his overall efficiency enough to compete statistically with the established quarterbacks.

The narrative upside is enormous. If Chicago becomes one of the NFC’s top two seeds and Williams approaches 35 total touchdowns, he could become one of the shortest MVP prices by November.

That potential is already reflected in the market, which makes price discipline important. We prefer the longest available number rather than chasing him near +1200.

Breakout MVP Pick: Caleb Williams at +1500 or better.

Best NFL MVP Longshots

The strongest NFL MVP longshots are quarterbacks whose team odds are shorter than their individual award prices suggest.

Sam Darnold fits that profile better than most. Seattle is the defending Super Bowl champion and remains one of the leading NFC contenders, yet Darnold can still be found around +2500 for MVP.

Jalen Hurts offers a similar argument. Philadelphia remains a serious championship contender, but Hurts sits well behind quarterbacks from several teams with weaker Super Bowl profiles.

Trevor Lawrence becomes interesting near +2000 if Jacksonville wins the AFC South and its offense continues to develop. Jayden Daniels has the dual-threat profile voters like but needs Washington to make a substantial jump in the standings.

Jared Goff and Bo Nix are the deeper quarterback options. Both need their teams to greatly outperform expectations before the statistical argument can matter.

Best NFL MVP Longshot: Sam Darnold at +2500 or better.

Can a Non-Quarterback Win NFL MVP?

A non-quarterback can win NFL MVP, but recent history makes the wager extremely difficult to justify at anything other than a huge price.

The last 13 MVP winners have all been quarterbacks. Adrian Peterson remains the most recent non-quarterback winner after rushing for 2,097 yards in 2012.

Current markets reflect that trend. Players such as Puka Nacua, Ja’Marr Chase, Derrick Henry and even reigning Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett can be found around +10000 or longer.

Nacua may have the most realistic non-quarterback path because the Rams are the championship favorite and he plays in an offense capable of supporting massive receiving numbers.

Chase can make a similar argument if he dominates the receiving leaderboard while Burrow misses enough time or splits MVP attention with another Cincinnati star.

The problem is quarterback correlation. If Nacua produces 1,700 yards and 14 touchdowns while Stafford leads the Rams to 13 wins, voters may simply reward Stafford. The same problem applies to Chase and Burrow.

That makes non-quarterback MVP bets lottery-ticket positions rather than core futures wagers.

Readers interested in related offensive award markets can compare these players with our NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds and predictions.

Why Team Success Matters for NFL MVP

The strongest NFL MVP strategy starts with projected team wins.

Quarterbacks can produce huge statistics on mediocre teams without becoming serious MVP candidates. Voters consistently reward players whose numbers translate into division titles, top playoff seeds and important late-season victories.

That is why Stafford’s price stands out. Los Angeles is the clear championship favorite, providing one of the strongest team-success foundations in the entire MVP field.

Allen and Jackson have similar advantages because Buffalo and Baltimore are expected to compete near the top of the AFC. Maye benefits from New England’s Super Bowl appearance, while Herbert needs the Chargers to move from playoff contender to legitimate conference power.

Burrow has the greatest disconnect. His individual odds are much shorter than Cincinnati’s championship odds, which means bettors are assuming his personal statistics can help lift the Bengals substantially above their current team expectations.

Recent NFL MVP Winners

Recent NFL MVP history shows how concentrated the award has become around quarterbacks.

Stafford won in 2025, Allen in 2024, Jackson in 2023 and Mahomes in 2022. Aaron Rodgers won consecutive awards in 2020 and 2021, proving that Stafford’s repeat attempt is difficult but not unprecedented.

The last non-quarterback to win remains Peterson in 2012. Since then, the combination of modern passing statistics and quarterback importance has made it extremely difficult for running backs and receivers to compete.

How to Bet NFL MVP Odds

1. Start With Quarterbacks

Quarterbacks should dominate an NFL MVP betting card until the voting trend changes.

Thirteen consecutive quarterbacks have won the award. A running back or receiver needs an extraordinary season combined with a relatively weak quarterback field to overcome that structural disadvantage.

2. Project Team Wins Before Statistics

A quarterback throwing for 4,700 yards on a seven-win team is unlikely to beat a quarterback producing 4,200 yards for the No. 1 seed.

Start by identifying teams capable of reaching 11, 12 or 13 victories. Then determine which quarterback is most responsible for that success.

3. Compare MVP Odds With Super Bowl Odds

Team futures create a useful reality check for individual award markets.

If a quarterback is +800 to win MVP but his team is +3500 to win the Super Bowl, the individual market may be pricing a much more optimistic season than the team market.

Stafford provides the opposite example. His Rams are only +550 to win the championship, yet some sportsbooks offer +1400 on Stafford winning MVP.

4. Look for Large Sportsbook Differences

Award futures can vary dramatically because the markets do not receive the same betting volume as NFL spreads or moneylines.

Stafford being available near +900 at one sportsbook and +1400 at another is exactly why line shopping matters. The player and outcome are identical, but the potential profit changes substantially.

Bettors can compare operators through the ScoresAndStats sportsbook reviews before placing a long-term futures wager.

5. Do Not Overreact to September

MVP prices can move aggressively after one nationally televised game, especially during the first month of the season.

One five-touchdown performance can cut a quarterback’s odds in half even though 16 games remain. That can create opportunities to sell the hype mentally and look for another candidate whose price has lengthened without a meaningful change in season-long probability.

6. Pay Attention to December

Late-season games matter disproportionately because voters remember December performances when comparing candidates with similar statistics.

Prime-time matchups, division-deciding games and battles for the No. 1 seed can create the final narrative that pushes one quarterback ahead of another.

Weekly results and matchup analysis can be followed through the ScoresAndStats NFL picks and predictions once the regular season begins.

More information on futures, implied probability, bankroll management and NFL betting markets is available in the ScoresAndStats NFL betting guide.

Final NFL MVP Picks and Predictions

Allen remains our most likely NFL MVP winner. His combination of team expectations, passing production and rushing touchdowns gives him the cleanest traditional MVP profile.

Stafford is the better wager when +1400 is available. The reigning MVP plays for the clear Super Bowl favorite and returns an elite offensive supporting cast, yet his best award price remains considerably longer than several quarterbacks on teams with weaker championship projections.

Burrow is the preferred first-time winner. His statistical ceiling is high enough to lead the NFL in both yards and touchdowns, but Cincinnati must convert those numbers into a strong team record.

Herbert remains on the card after being our July final pick. Maye offers proven voting support after almost winning last season, while Darnold provides the best longer-price relationship between individual MVP odds and team championship probability.

Jackson and Mahomes remain capable of winning again, but both are more price-sensitive because voters have already rewarded them multiple times.

Our NFL MVP Prediction: Josh Allen.

Our Best NFL MVP Bet: Matthew Stafford at +1400 or better.

Our Best First-Time MVP Bet: Joe Burrow at +900 or better.

Our Best NFL MVP Longshot: Sam Darnold at +2500 or better.

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