Patrick Mahomes leads the NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds at -300 on DraftKings, as ESPN listed the market on October 13, 2026. Michael Penix Jr. and Kyler Murray are next at +1200, and Malik Nabers is fourth at +1500.
A -300 price means risking $300 to win $100. It breaks even only if Mahomes wins the award 75.0% of the time. ESPN’s awards tracker had him at -250 on October 9, which is 71.4%. Kansas City did not play between the two reads: Week 5 was its bye.
NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds
| Player | Position | Team | Record | Price | Implied chance | Share of board |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | Quarterback | Kansas City Chiefs | 4-0 | -300 | 75.0% | 51.3% |
| Michael Penix Jr. | Quarterback | Atlanta Falcons | 2-3 | +1200 | 7.7% | 5.3% |
| Kyler Murray | Quarterback | Minnesota Vikings | 5-0 | +1200 | 7.7% | 5.3% |
| Malik Nabers | Wide receiver | New York Giants | 3-1-1 | +1500 | 6.2% | 4.3% |
| George Kittle | Tight end | San Francisco 49ers | 5-0 | +1800 | 5.3% | 3.6% |
| Fred Warner | Linebacker | San Francisco 49ers | 5-0 | +2000 | 4.8% | 3.3% |
| Deshaun Watson | Quarterback | Cleveland Browns | 3-2 | +2500 | 3.8% | 2.6% |
| Brock Bowers | Tight end | Las Vegas Raiders | 3-2 | +2500 | 3.8% | 2.6% |
| Daniel Jones | Quarterback | Indianapolis Colts | 2-3 | +4000 | 2.4% | 1.7% |
| Travis Hunter | Wide receiver | Jacksonville Jaguars | 4-1 | +4000 | 2.4% | 1.7% |
| Tyreek Hill | Wide receiver | Free agent | none | +5000 | 2.0% | 1.3% |
| Micah Parsons | Defensive end | Green Bay Packers | 3-2 | +5000 | 2.0% | 1.3% |
| Cam Skattebo | Running back | New York Giants | 3-1-1 | +5000 | 2.0% | 1.3% |
| Trey Hendrickson | Linebacker | Baltimore Ravens | 4-1 | +5500 | 1.8% | 1.2% |
| Tank Dell | Wide receiver | Houston Texans | 1-4 | +6000 | 1.6% | 1.1% |
| Garrett Wilson | Wide receiver | New York Jets | 2-3 | +6000 | 1.6% | 1.1% |
| Tucker Kraft | Tight end | Green Bay Packers | 3-2 | +6000 | 1.6% | 1.1% |
| Zach Charbonnet | Running back | Seattle Seahawks | 3-2 | +7500 | 1.3% | 0.9% |
| Geno Smith | Quarterback | New York Jets | 2-3 | +8000 | 1.2% | 0.8% |
| J.K. Dobbins | Running back | Denver Broncos | 3-2 | +8000 | 1.2% | 0.8% |
| Carson Wentz | Quarterback | Minnesota Vikings | 5-0 | +10000 | 1.0% | 0.7% |
| Nick Bosa | Defensive end | San Francisco 49ers | 5-0 | +10000 | 1.0% | 0.7% |
| Najee Harris | Running back | New York Giants | 3-1-1 | +10000 | 1.0% | 0.7% |
| Malik Willis | Quarterback | Miami Dolphins | 0-5 | +10000 | 1.0% | 0.7% |
| Sauce Gardner | Cornerback | Indianapolis Colts | 2-3 | +10000 | 1.0% | 0.7% |
| Sam LaPorta | Tight end | Detroit Lions | 3-2 | +10000 | 1.0% | 0.7% |
| J.J. McCarthy | Quarterback | New York Giants | 3-1-1 | +10000 | 1.0% | 0.7% |
| Jonathon Brooks | Running back | Carolina Panthers | 2-2 | +10000 | 1.0% | 0.7% |
| Quinshon Judkins | Running back | Cleveland Browns | 3-2 | +10000 | 1.0% | 0.7% |
| Mykel Williams | Defensive end | San Francisco 49ers | 5-0 | +10000 | 1.0% | 0.7% |
| Kerby Joseph | Safety | Detroit Lions | 3-2 | +15000 | 0.7% | 0.5% |
Prices are DraftKings’ Comeback Player of the Year market as ESPN carried it at 06:07 UTC on October 13, 2026, with every Week 5 game final. Records are ESPN’s standings at the same read. ESPN’s status for Tyreek Hill is free agent, so he has no team in the table.
The 31 implied chances add up to 146.2%, which puts the book’s margin on this market at 46.2 points. Share of board divides each chance by that total. Mahomes’s 75.0% becomes 51.3% that way, and Penix and Murray go from 7.7% to 5.3% each.
The 30 names below Mahomes hold 71.2% of implied chance between them. Nine of the 31 are quarterbacks. Ten players share the +10000 line, where $100 would win $10,000, and only Kerby Joseph is longer at +15000.
We state no Comeback Player of the Year pick. The award is voted, and we have no method for a vote.
What the five shortest prices have done since 2025
| Player | 2025 games | Last 2025 game | 2026 games | 2026 line | ESPN headline naming the injury |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 14 | Week 15 | 4 | 82-128, 1,037 yards, 9 TD, 2 INT | none on his ESPN page |
| Michael Penix Jr. | 9 | Week 11 | 3 | 52-77, 719 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT | “Falcons upset Packers in Michael Penix Jr.’s return from ACL injury” (September 26) |
| Kyler Murray | 5 | Week 5 | 4 | 69-101, 662 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT | none on his ESPN page |
| Malik Nabers | 4 | Week 4 | 5 | 29 catches, 329 yards, 2 TD | none on his ESPN page |
| George Kittle | 11 | Week 18 | 5 | 21 catches, 268 yards, 4 TD | “Inside George Kittle’s 243-day recovery from torn Achilles” (September 29) |
Games and season lines are ESPN’s regular-season game logs for 2025 and 2026, added up through Week 5. The last column quotes a headline from the player’s own ESPN page where one names the injury. ESPN’s injury record holds current injuries only, so where no headline names what a player missed time with, the cell says so and this page leaves it there.
Mahomes played 14 of Kansas City’s 17 games in 2025, the last in Week 15. This season he has played all four: 82 of 128 for 1,037 yards, nine touchdown passes and two interceptions, with the Chiefs 4-0. He is also third on the NFL MVP board at +650.
Penix played his first game of 2026 in Week 3 and has 719 yards and three touchdown passes in three games. He left Sunday night’s 30-23 overtime loss to Baltimore, and ESPN’s injury record of October 12 lists him as questionable with a rib injury. Atlanta is 2-3.
Murray was with Arizona in 2025 and played five games, none after Week 5. Minnesota is 5-0, and he has played four of the five, missing Week 2. Nabers played four games in 2025. He has played all five this season, with 29 catches for 329 yards, and 121 of those yards came in Sunday’s 27-27 tie at Washington.
Kittle is the only one of the five whose 2025 regular season ran to Week 18. He has 21 catches for 268 yards and four touchdowns for a 49ers team that is 5-0.
The rest of the Comeback Player board
Fred Warner is sixth at +2000. He played six games in 2025, none after Week 6, and has 50 tackles in five games this season. Deshaun Watson, at +2500, has no game in ESPN’s 2025 log. He has played all five of Cleveland’s games: 95 of 148 for 1,010 yards, seven touchdown passes and two interceptions, and he has been sacked 19 times.
Brock Bowers shares the +2500 line. He played his first game of 2026 in Week 3 and has 24 catches for 312 yards and three touchdowns in three games.
Five listed players have not played a game this season: Hill, Micah Parsons, Tank Dell, Zach Charbonnet and Joseph. ESPN’s injury record has Parsons and Charbonnet on the reserve list for players physically unable to perform, after ACL surgery, Dell on injured reserve after ACL and MCL surgery, and Hill out after ACL surgery. All five are +5000 or longer.
How the season runs from here
Every team has played four or five of its 17 games, and the regular season ends on Sunday, January 10, 2027. Kansas City comes off its bye at home to the Chargers, who are 0-5, on Sunday, October 18. The Chiefs’ games are on the Chiefs page, and the week’s lines are on the NFL Week 6 page.
The other award markets have their own pages: Offensive Player of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year and Coach of the Year. Our calls on each game are on the NFL predictions hub, and what is a futures bet explains how a price like -300 pays.