Denver Broncos

The Broncos won 14 of 17 games in 2025 and covered the spread in seven. As favorites they went 10-2 and covered three times, which is the gap to keep in mind when reading the Broncos odds and our prediction for each game above.

Winning without covering

Denver finished the 2025 regular season 14-3 and 7-10 against the spread. The difference sat in the favorite games. Twelve times the Broncos gave points; they won ten and covered three, and only five NFL teams had a lower cover rate as favorites.

Six of the 14 wins came by three points or fewer, among them 10-7 over the Las Vegas Raiders as 9.5-point favorites and 33-32 over the New York Giants as 7.5-point favorites. An 11-game winning streak ran from late September to mid-December and covered six times.

Getting points was another matter

As underdogs, five times, Denver won four and covered four. Only two NFL teams covered at a higher rate as underdogs. The wins included 21-17 at the Eagles at +195 and 22-19 at home over the Kansas City Chiefs at +190.

On the road the Broncos covered two of seven, and only three teams were worse away from home. At home they covered five of nine.

The moneyline paid, from five games

One unit on Denver in the 16 games with a posted moneyline returned 5.07 units; five NFL teams returned more. Nearly all of it came from the underdog games, 5.02 units from five. Eleven priced games as favorites returned 0.05.

October and November were the profit, 8-0 and 6.25 units between them. September went 2-2 and lost 1.56.

The AFC West

Denver went 5-1 in the division and 2-4 against the spread. Two wins over the Las Vegas Raiders covered neither time. Two over the Kansas City Chiefs covered once and returned 1.98 units. The Los Angeles Chargers split, a cover each way. In January the Broncos beat the Buffalo Bills 33-30 in the Divisional round, then lost the AFC Championship 10-7 to the New England Patriots, both at home.

The total

Ten of 16 graded games went under. Only two NFL teams went under more often, and one matched it. Denver allowed 18.29 points a game, and only two teams allowed fewer.

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