Jaguars at Broncos Final Score: Denver Takes It in the Fourth

Denver won 20-13. We took the Jaguars and the points at +2.5, and the call lost by four and a half.

Jacksonville led 10-3 at the half and 13-6 after three. Then Denver scored 14 in the fourth quarter and Jacksonville scored nothing, which is the whole story of the afternoon in one line.

Denver finished with 392 yards at 6.6 a play. Jacksonville had 268 at 4.9. That gap was there from the first drive and the scoreboard simply took three quarters to catch up with it.

I leaned on Jacksonville winning by 14 in Denver last December. One result from ten months ago was doing too much work in that argument, and the yards per play here say so.

The number

Denver closed at -2.5 and covered by 4.5. The total closed at 45.5 and the game produced 33, so the under cashed.

What we said before kickoff

The prediction below is unchanged, so you can see what was argued and judge it.

Jacksonville won by 14 in Denver last December. I want the Jaguars and the points.

Watch what Denver’s offence does after the first quarter. At Kansas City in Week 1 the Broncos scored 7 in the opening quarter and 3 in the other three combined. If that stall shows up again on Sunday, Jacksonville is the side still scoring when it matters.

Where the price has gone

Denver is a 2.5-point favourite at eight of the eleven books quoting this game, read on 17 September 2026. Two books have Denver at -3 and one at -2. The same market had Jacksonville getting 5 points on 15 September.

On 16 September this page took Jacksonville at +3. The side has not changed. Nine of the eleven books are now below that number, and I will come back to what that half-point costs.

The Week 1 results point the same way as the move. Jacksonville beat Cleveland 34-10 at home as a 9-point favourite and covered by 15. Denver lost 31-10 at Kansas City as a 1.5-point underdog and missed the cover by 19.5.

The moneyline has Denver at -154 and Jacksonville at +130, the median of eleven books. Take the bookmaker’s margin out and that prices Jacksonville to win 41.8% of the time. I think that is low.

The meeting in Denver

They played once last season, in Denver on 21 December 2025. Jacksonville won 34-20. Those 34 points were the most Denver allowed at home all season, playoffs included.

That was Denver’s only defeat in nine regular-season home games. Denver went on to beat Buffalo 33-30 at home in the Divisional round, then lost 10-7 at home to New England in the conference championship game. So the one team that beat Denver in Denver by more than a field goal last season is the one getting points here.

What last season says

Denver had the better record, 14-3 against 13-4. Jacksonville had the better team on the scoreboard. It outscored its opponents by 138 points; Denver outscored its opponents by 90.

Jacksonville scored 27.9 points a game and allowed 19.8. Denver scored 23.6 and allowed 18.3. That is a margin of about 8.1 points a game for Jacksonville against 5.3 for Denver.

The gap between Denver’s record and its scoring came from close games. Denver went 11-2 in games decided by eight points or fewer, and six of its 14 wins came by three points or fewer. Jacksonville went 6-3 in those games. I don’t expect an 11-2 record in close games to carry into a new season. That is my read of it.

Jacksonville’s season ended in the Wild Card round, a 27-24 home loss to Buffalo.

Denver at home, Jacksonville on the road

Here is Denver’s best argument. The Broncos went 8-1 at home in 2025, scoring 25.6 points a game and allowing 17.8. Jacksonville went 6-2 on the road, scoring 27.6 and allowing 22.6.

Denver’s home defence is the number I respect most in this game. But three of its eight home wins came by three points or fewer: 33-32 over the New York Giants, 10-7 over Las Vegas and 22-19 over Kansas City.

Jacksonville’s two road losses were close: 31-27 at Cincinnati and 36-29 at Houston. Its six road wins included 25-3 at Tennessee and 34-20 in Denver.

Week 1, quarter by quarter

Jacksonville scored 14, 10 and 10 in the first three quarters against Cleveland and led 24-0 at half-time. Cleveland scored all of its 10 points after the break.

Denver’s game turned the other way. It was 7-7 after one quarter in Kansas City. From there the Chiefs outscored the Broncos 24-3.

Ten points is a low number for this team. Denver scored 10 or fewer in two of its 19 games last season, playoffs included: the 10-7 win over Las Vegas and the 10-7 loss to New England. It has now done it in its first game of 2026.

That is one game each. I still want to see Denver score in the second and third quarters before I believe the stall was a one-off. Jacksonville scored 27.6 a game on the road last season, and 34 in Denver in December.

The call

I want Jacksonville at +2.5. Eight books have it, priced from -105 to +107. At -105 the bet needs to win 51.2% of the time to break even. At +107 it needs 48.3%, so shop it. Backing Denver at -2.5 costs more at the same eight books, from -115 to -122.

Three is the number to think about. It is the most common winning margin in the NFL, and Denver won two home games by exactly three last season. Two books still have Jacksonville at +3, at -112 and -120. At -112 the bet needs 52.8%, and I would pay that for the push on a three-point Denver win. At -120 it needs 54.5%, and I would take +2.5 at a plus price instead. Skip the one book at +2.

The moneyline at +130 needs Jacksonville to win 43.5% of the time. The market says 41.8%. I think Jacksonville wins this outright, but the points are the main play.

The total

The total is 45.5 at nine books and 45 at two. It was 44 on 15 September and 44.5 later that day.

The two teams pull apart here. Jacksonville’s 2025 games had a median of 48 points, and 10 of 17 went over 45.5. Denver’s had a median of 41, and 6 went over.

On the road Jacksonville’s games ran higher, a median of 52.5 with 6 of 8 over. At home Denver’s ran lower, a median of 41 with 4 of 9 over. Last season’s meeting produced 54. In Week 1, Jacksonville’s game went over at 44 points and Denver’s went under at 41. That points both ways, so I have no bet on the total.

What changes it

If this line goes back to +3 across the market, the bet gets better. If it comes down to +1.5 or shorter, I would pass on the points.

And read both injury reports before you bet. Nothing in this piece says who is available.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos, Sunday 20 September 2026, 4:05 PM ET. Prices: US sportsbooks via Nucleus, read 17 September 2026, 05:24 UTC. 2025 results: Nucleus, checked game by game against ESPN. Week 1 period scores: ESPN. Every Week 2 game: NFL Week 2 odds and predictions.