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Patriots vs Bears prediction: No bet on Bears -3

By Tony PhillipsUpdated 20 Oct 2026

No bet on Chicago -3. Last season says New England, this season says Chicago, and the line sits between them.

Watch New England away from home. Last season the Patriots won all eight of their regular-season road games. This season they are 1-2 on the road: 13-10 losers in Seattle, 35-6 losers in Jacksonville, 29-26 winners in Buffalo.

Where the price is

All 11 US sportsbooks in the Nucleus read of 21 October 2026 have Chicago -3, priced from -102 to -110 on the Bears. DraftKings opened Chicago -1.5 and has -3 now, at -102 on Chicago and -118 on New England.

The total is 50.5 at all 11 books. DraftKings opened it at 47.5 and has the over at -115 and the under at -105.

The moneyline median has the Bears at -161 and the Patriots at +135. Take out the bookmaker’s margin and that prices Chicago to win 59.2% of the time.

Moneyline implies Patriots 40.8 percent, Bears 59.2 percentChance to win the game, as pricedPatriots 40.8%Bears 59.2%From the median moneylines of 11 books, Patriots +135 and Bears -161, margin removed.
Source: US sportsbooks via Nucleus, read 2026-10-21 01:27 UTC.

How I make the call

Same working every week. Each team’s points per game from last season, averaged with what the other side allowed, gives me a score for the game. This season’s games through the same sum give me a second one. Home field is worth two and a half points. When the market sits outside both numbers, and a field goal or more from last season’s, I bet the side they both point to. When it sits between them, I pass.

Last season, New England scored 28.8 a game and Chicago allowed 24.4, so the Patriots come out at 26.6. Chicago scored 25.9 and New England allowed 18.8, so the Bears come out at 22.35. That is New England by 4.25 on a neutral field and by 1.75 at Soldier Field.

This season, New England has scored 22.67 a game and Chicago has allowed 19.83, so the Patriots come out at 21.25. Chicago has scored 25.0 and New England has allowed 18.83, so the Bears come out at 21.92. That is Chicago by 0.67 on a neutral field and by 3.17 at home.

Pick: No bet on Bears -3

The market is Chicago by 3. Last season says New England by 1.75. This season says Chicago by 3.17. The line sits between them, 4.75 from one and 0.17 from the other, and that is a pass.

The two seasons point different ways. The Patriots went 14-3 last season and outscored their opponents by 170 points. This season they are 4-2 and plus 23. Chicago went 11-6 and plus 26 last season, and is 4-2 and plus 31 now.

2025 point margin in every game, Bears and Patriots2025 regular season, point margin in every gameBears11-6-3-31+17+1+1+12-14+5+4+2+3+9-7+28+6-4-3Patriots14-3-7+6-7+29+3+6+18+19+1+5+13+6+18-4+4+32+28Blue bars are wins, grey bars are losses. Neutral-site games are included here.
Source: NFL 2025 results via Nucleus, checked game by game against ESPN.

Laying the 3 means trusting six games over seventeen. Taking it means trusting last season’s road record over this season’s. I can’t do either at this number.

Bears at home and Patriots on the road in 20252025: Bears at home against Patriots on the roadPoints scored per gameBears at home 25.6Patriots on the road 29.5Points allowed per gameBears at home 17.6Patriots on the road 19.5RecordBears at home 6-2Patriots on the road 8-0
Source: NFL 2025 results via Nucleus, checked game by game against ESPN. Neutral-site games are left out of both.

Chicago at home this season: a 9-3 loss to Minnesota, then 27-7 over Philadelphia and 23-12 over the Jets. The Bears were 6-2 at Soldier Field last season, allowing 17.6 a game there.

The total

No bet at 50.5. Last season’s working gives 48.95 points and this season’s gives 43.17. The market sits above both, but only 1.55 points from last season’s number. That is short of a field goal.

2025 game totals for Bears and Patriots against a total of 50.52025: total points in every game, against this week's 50.53040506070809050.5Bearsmedian 46Patriotsmedian 47Each dot is one 2025 regular-season game. Dots stack where games had the same total.
Source: NFL 2025 results via Nucleus, checked game by game against ESPN. The line: median of the books quoting the game.

Last season 11 of New England’s 17 games and 12 of Chicago’s finished under 50.5. This season two of six have gone over for each team. Chicago’s games have finished on 96, 12, 34, 35, 38 and 54 points, New England’s on 23, 23, 41, 55, 62 and 45.

Last week I took the under 51.5 in Chicago’s game in Atlanta. The Bears won 31-23, 54 points, and that bet lost.

These two did not meet last season, and our game records start in 2025.

What changes it

The price. At Patriots +3.5 the market is past both numbers, 5.25 from last season’s, and I take the points. On the total, 52 or more and I take the under; 43 or less and I take the over.

Who plays. ESPN’s injury lists, read on 21 October, have both starting quarterbacks, Drake Maye and Caleb Williams, active. New England has Carlton Davis III and A.J. Brown questionable; Chicago has T.J. Edwards and Kyle Monangai questionable. This page prices no injury news, so read both teams’ reports before you bet.

No bet on Chicago -3.

New England Patriots at Chicago Bears, Thursday 22 October 2026, 8:15 PM ET, Soldier Field, Chicago. Prices: eleven US sportsbooks via Nucleus, read 21 October 2026, 01:27 UTC; DraftKings opening and current prices via ESPN, read 21 October 2026, 01:27 UTC. Injuries: ESPN’s team injury lists, read 21 October 2026, 01:28 UTC. Results: Nucleus, the 2025 season checked game by game against ESPN, and 2026 through Week 6, checked against the ESPN scoreboard. Every Week 7 game: NFL Week 7 odds and predictions.