Rams at Broncos Final Score: Broncos Win 30-26

Final: Denver Broncos 30, Los Angeles Rams 26, Sunday 27 September at Empower Field at Mile High.

Our call won. Before the game this page said: “Broncos +2.5. Take the points.” Broncos +2.5 won: Denver won by 4.

What decided it

Denver won the third quarter by 16. Denver turned the ball over 1 time to Los Angeles’s 2, and gained 257 yards to 482.

The last DraftKings line ESPN holds for the game is DEN -1.5, with a total of 44.5. Denver covered as the favourite. The 56 points went over the total.

What comes next

Los Angeles plays next at the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday 4 October: our prediction. Denver plays next at the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday 4 October: our prediction.

The prediction, as published before the game

Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Rams at Broncos prediction: Take Broncos +2.5”.

Denver went 14-3 last season and is getting points at home. I am taking the Broncos and the two and a half.

My bias, stated: I like buying teams whose record is better than their reputation, and Denver is one. They won fourteen games and the market has them as home underdogs against a team that won twelve.

Pick: Broncos +2.5

The market is not being stupid. It is looking at point differential rather than record, and on that measure Los Angeles is the better team.

Los Angeles outscored opponents by 172 points last season. Denver by 90. Los Angeles also scored 30.5 a game, the highest figure among the teams playing this week. That is where the price comes from and it is a fair reading.

Here is the counter. Denver allowed 18.3 a game, the third-best defensive rate on this week’s board behind Seattle and Houston. A team that defends like that at altitude is not a team I want to lay points against, and the eighty-two points of differential between them works out at under five a game before home field is applied.

Worst price I would take: Broncos +1.5. At pick’em this is a pass.

Where the price has gone

The line has been steady across the downloads. No steam, no repricing, which suggests a market that is comfortable with Los Angeles by a field goal.

It held through Monday night, too. Los Angeles beat New York 28-6, and Denver was +2.5 before that game and is +2.5 at ten of the 11 books now. The bet is the same bet at the same number, and it still clears the +1.5 I set as the floor.

The doubt, and the answer

Both teams are 1-1, and both have a loss that looks bad on its own.

Denver lost 31-10 at Kansas City, then beat Jacksonville 20-13. Los Angeles lost 27-7 to San Francisco, then beat New York 28-6 on Monday night. Monday’s version of this page was written before that game, and the gap it left is closed now: a 22-point win did not move the spread, and it does not move me. Prices on this page are the median of 11 US sportsbooks, read on 24 September 2026.

The total

Forty-four and a half, down a point since Monday.

This is the interesting number. Los Angeles played in the fifties a lot last season at 30.5 points a game. Denver played in the low forties at 23.6 scored and 18.3 allowed. Two opposite profiles, and the market has split the difference at 44.5.

I make it a shade over. The drop moves the number toward my side, but the gap is still inside two points, which is not enough to bet. No bet on the total. I would rather say that than dress up a one-point lean as a position.

Last season, game by game

Denver’s row is the one to read. Fourteen wins, most of them by a score or two, very few blowouts either way. That is a team that stays in games, and staying in games is all a two-and-a-half-point underdog has to do.

Injury report

From the teams’ reports as carried by Nucleus, read 2026-09-25 19:38 UTC. Statuses change up to kickoff.

Los Angeles Rams: On injured reserve: Matthew Caldwell (QB, undisclosed), Tony Fields II (LB, undisclosed), Daniel Rickert (DE, knee), Ronnie Rivers (RB, calf); questionable: Kamren Kinchens (S, hamstring), Nathan Landman (LB, shoulder), Puka Nacua (WR, hip), Colby Parkinson (TE, knee), Jordan Whittington (WR, quadriceps).

Denver Broncos: On injured reserve: Levelle Bailey (LB, leg), Frank Crum (OT, undisclosed), Caleb Lohner (TE, lower body), Damarri Mathis (CB, undisclosed); questionable: Jonah Coleman (RB, ankle).

What the moneyline says

Roughly 56 percent for Los Angeles once the juice comes out, from -143 and +120. That is close to a coin flip, and a coin flip where I get points at home is a bet.

Broncos +2.5. Take the points.