NFL
SpreadTotalMoneyDEN+3U 48.5+124SF-3O 48.5-148
NFL · Sunday 4 October
Broncos at 49ers Final Score: 49ers Win 24-14
Final: San Francisco 49ers 24, Denver Broncos 14, Sunday 4 October at Levi’s Stadium.
Our call lost. Before the game this page said: “San Francisco is laying 2.5 to a team that had the better season last year. I am still taking the Broncos and the points.” Broncos +2.5 lost: Denver lost by 10.
What decided it
San Francisco won the third quarter by 7. San Francisco turned the ball over 0 times to Denver’s 1, and gained 358 yards to 296.
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 14 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 0 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 24 |
The last DraftKings line ESPN holds for the game is SF -3, with a total of 48.5. San Francisco covered as the favourite. The 38 points went under the total.
What comes next
Denver plays next at the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday 11 October: our prediction. San Francisco plays next at the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday 11 October: our prediction.
The prediction, as published before the game
Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Pick the Broncos +2.5 – Broncos at 49ers prediction, odds and best picks”.
San Francisco is laying 2.5 to a team that had the better season last year. I am still taking the Broncos and the points.
My number is plain arithmetic. I take each team’s points differential per game from last season, subtract one from the other, and set the result against the spread. When the spread sits two points or more away from my number, it is a bet. Inside two points, I pass.
Pick: Broncos +2.5
Denver went 14-3 last season and outscored its opponents by 90 points. San Francisco went 12-5 and finished plus 66. Per game, that is plus 5.3 against plus 3.9. My number has Denver better by about a point and a half, and the market has San Francisco by two and a half.
That is about four points of gap, still clear of my bar. The difference between these teams last season was defence. Denver allowed 18.3 points a game and San Francisco allowed 21.8, three and a half more.
Has San Francisco really moved past Denver in three weeks?
The market thinks so, and I understand why. San Francisco is 3-0 and plus 48: it won 27-7 at the Rams, beat Miami 35-13 and beat Arizona 36-30. Denver is 2-1 and minus 10, and its only road game was a 31-10 loss at Kansas City.
I do not think three weeks outweighs seventeen. The one number from this season that bothers me is Denver’s defence: 23.3 points allowed a game, five more than last season’s 18.3. That is the risk that breaks this pick, and three games are not enough to believe it. Denver has won its last two, 20-13 over Jacksonville and 30-26 over the Rams. And the venue split from last season favours Denver as well: the Broncos went 6-2 on the road, scoring 21.4 and allowing 18.9, while San Francisco went 5-3 at home, scoring 23.1 and allowing 22.1.
Where the price has gone
San Francisco was first seen at -2.5 and -3 on 16 September. By 23 September lines of -3.5, -4 and -4.5 had shown up, and on Monday the median was back at -3. It has come in again since. Read on 1 October across 11 US sportsbooks, eight hang 2.5, two hang 3 and one hangs 2.
Denver +2.5 costs between -105 and +101. DraftKings and MyBookie still deal +3, both at -120, and DraftKings on ESPN showed the same +3 at -120. BetUS has +2 at even money. All of those are still a bet on my number.
Every price on this page is the median of the books in that read, taken at 07:10 UTC on 1 October 2026. Kickoff is Sunday 4 October at 4:25 PM ET.
Worst price I would take: Broncos +1. At pick’em, pass.
Why the points matter here
Eight of Denver’s 17 games last season were decided by three points or fewer, and Denver won six of them. San Francisco played 17 games and six finished inside seven points either way.
A team that lives in close games is the team I want getting points. The half point matters too: if this lands on three, +3 gets my money back and +2.5 loses, so the -120 for the three at DraftKings or MyBookie is worth paying.
The total
Forty-eight and a half, and no bet. Six books hang 48.5, two hang 48 and three hang 47.5. On Monday it was 46.
San Francisco’s games went over 48.5 in 8 of 17 last season, and Denver’s in 6 of 17. Denver’s games averaged 41.9 total points and San Francisco’s 47.5, so at this number both histories sit under it. This season, two of their six games went over 48.5: 66 points in San Francisco’s win over Arizona and 56 in Denver’s win over the Rams.
That is a lean to the under, after the market climbed two and a half points in three days. I have no number of my own for totals, and a lean is not a bet.
What the moneyline says
The median moneylines are Denver +125 and San Francisco -145. With the bookmaker margin taken out, that is a 42.9 percent chance for Denver to win outright.
On my number Denver should be the favourite, so +125 is tempting. I will still take the points: with eight of Denver’s games last season decided by three or fewer, the points are worth more than the extra price.
Last season, game by game
Denver lost three games all season, by one, three and 14 points. It did not lose by more than three until 21 December.
San Francisco’s row is lumpier. It won by ten or more seven times, and it lost by ten or more four times, including 42-26 at home to the Rams. That is a team that swings. Against a team that swings, I want the points.
Broncos +2.5, or +3 where it is dealt. Good down to +1.
Injury report
From ESPN’s injury listings for both rosters, read 1 October 2026, 07:53 UTC. Statuses change up to kickoff, and this page’s call does not price them.
Denver Broncos: Out: Jonathon Cooper (LB, personal), Nick Gargiulo (G, knee – acl – surgery); questionable: Dondrea Tillman (LB, hamstring); on injured reserve: Jonah Coleman (RB, ankle – sprain), Frank Crum (OT, undisclosed), Caleb Lohner (TE, lower body – surgery), Levelle Bailey (LB, leg – fracture), Michael Deiter (C, quadriceps – surgery), Matt Henningsen (DE, achilles).
San Francisco 49ers: Out: Mykel Williams (DE, knee – acl – surgery), James Thompson Jr. (DT, ankle – sprain), Nick Bosa (DE, calf – strain), Brandon Aiyuk (WR, personal), Isaac Guerendo (RB, pectoral – surgery); questionable: Dre Greenlaw (LB, quadriceps – bruise), KhaDarel Hodge (WR, knee), Keion White (DE, hamstring), Mike Evans (WR, ribs – strain), Romello Height (DE, hand – surgery), Trent Williams (OT, neck – stinger); on injured reserve: Demarcus Robinson (WR, ankle – sprain), C.J. West (DT, undisclosed), De’Zhaun Stribling (WR, ankle – surgery), Jake Tonges (TE, knee – mcl – surgery), Alfred Collins (DT, knee – surgery), Nate Hobbs (CB, groin), Sam Okuayinonu (DT, foot – surgery), Nick Martin (LB, hamstring), Nick Zakelj (OT, undisclosed), Brett Toth (C, concussion), Austen Pleasants (OT, knee), Christian Kirk (WR, calf), Ricky Pearsall (WR, knee – pcl – surgery), Mikail Kamara (DE, knee), Andrew Farmer II (DE, back), Darrick Forrest (S, undisclosed).