NFL
SpreadTotalMoneyLAR-3.5U 42.5-180PHI+3.5O 42.5+150
NFL · Sunday 4 October
Rams at Eagles Final Score: Rams Win 24-20
Final: Los Angeles Rams 24, Philadelphia Eagles 20, Sunday 4 October at Lincoln Financial Field.
Of our two calls, one won, one lost. Before the game this page said: “The pick is Philadelphia +3, with over 43.5 as the second bet.” Eagles +3 lost: Philadelphia lost by 4. The over 43.5 won: the teams scored 44.
What decided it
Los Angeles won the fourth quarter by 14. Los Angeles turned the ball over 2 times to Philadelphia’s 0, and gained 415 yards to 172.
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 3 | 7 | 0 | 14 | 24 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 3 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 20 |
The last DraftKings line ESPN holds for the game is LAR -4.5, with a total of 42.5. Los Angeles did not cover as the favourite. The 44 points went over the total.
What comes next
Los Angeles plays next against the Buffalo Bills on Monday 12 October: our prediction. Philadelphia plays next at the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday 11 October: our prediction.
The prediction, as published before the game
Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Rams at Eagles Best Pick, Prediction and Odds”.
Last season’s rates make Los Angeles about a one-point favourite in Philadelphia, and the market has three. The pick is Philadelphia +3, with over 43.5 as the second bet.
The price has leaned toward Los Angeles. On 16 September books had Philadelphia at +1.5 and +3. On 28 September at 15:10 UTC the median of 9 US sportsbooks was +2.5. On 29 September at 19:10 UTC, after Philadelphia lost 27-7 in Chicago on Monday night, the median of 11 books was +3, and all 11 were dealing +3. On 1 October at 07:10 UTC all 11 still were. The line history does not record which book dealt the first number, so I can give the date and not the name.
The number the argument rests on
Los Angeles scored 30.5 points a game in 2025 and allowed 20.4, a differential of +172 over 17 games. Philadelphia scored 22.3 and allowed 19.1, a differential of +54. Per game, that is +10.12 for Los Angeles and +3.18 for Philadelphia.
My method in one clause: half the gap between the two per-game differentials, plus two and a half points for home field. The gap is 6.94 in Los Angeles’s favour. Half of it is 3.47. Take off two and a half for Philadelphia’s home field and this game prices at Los Angeles by 0.97. The market has three.
That is an edge of 2.03 points. My threshold is two points. Below two I pass, because a season-rate estimate carries more error than that, and this one clears it by three hundredths of a point.
Pick: Eagles +3
Three is the whole bet. At +3 a Los Angeles win by exactly three is a push. At +2.5 it is a loss, and the edge falls to 1.53, which is a pass. Every book in the 1 October read has +3, priced from -112 at DraftKings, the same on ESPN, to even money at LowVig. Take the three at the shortest price you can find.
One more number appears in the line history: +1, first seen on 29 September. No book was dealing it in either read, and I cannot say where it came from.
Last season, game by game
Los Angeles went 12-5, and all five losses were by seven points or fewer. Philadelphia went 11-6 and was 8-4 in games decided by one score.
These two met once. Philadelphia won 33-26 at home on 21 September 2025. One game is not a rate, and the price above puts no weight on it.
Pick: over 43.5
My method for the total adds each team’s expected points, taken as the average of what it scored a game and what the other side allowed a game in 2025. Los Angeles comes out at 24.8, the average of 30.5 and 19.1. Philadelphia comes out at 21.35, the average of 22.3 and 20.4. That is 46.15.
The median total is 43.5, from 11 books, half a point lower than on 29 September. Against it the edge is 2.65 points. Ten books deal 43.5, with the over priced from -108 at LowVig to -120, and Bovada deals 44, where the edge is 2.15. At 44.5 the edge would be 1.65 and I would pass.
The first totals seen were 47.5 and 46.5, on 16 September. The median was 46 on 28 September, before Monday’s 34-point game in Chicago, 44 the next day, and 43.5 by 1 October. Los Angeles games went over 43.5 in 12 of 17 last season, and Philadelphia’s in 8 of 17.
What this season says, and what it cannot
Los Angeles is 1-2. It lost 27-7 at home to San Francisco, beat the Giants 28-6, then lost 30-26 in Denver, a 61-63 aggregate. Philadelphia is 2-1. It beat Washington 24-22, won 24-20 in Tennessee, then lost 27-7 in Chicago, a 55-69 aggregate.
Put those three games through the same side method and Philadelphia is a 0.5-point favourite. That points the same way as the pick. The same games put the total at 41.3, under 43.5, and three of the six went over it. That is the case against the second bet, and it is here so you can weigh it.
Three games each is too few to move a 17-game rate. I would not bet on these numbers, and I will not bet against my own on them either.
The moneyline
The median moneylines are Los Angeles -169 and Philadelphia +140. With the bookmaker margin removed, that is a 60.1 percent chance for Los Angeles.
My method estimates a margin, and the spread is where a margin is tested. The moneyline carries the same small disagreement and I leave it alone.
Where the data runs out
Nucleus holds nothing before the 2025 season, so the one meeting above is the whole head-to-head record I have. Both edges on this page are close to the threshold, and neither is large.
This page prices no injury news. Kickoff is 1:00 pm Eastern on Sunday 4 October, and a missing starting quarterback on either side would move both numbers more than anything here, so read the injury report before you bet.
What would change the call
On the side, Philadelphia +2.5 or shorter takes the edge below two and makes it a pass. On the total, 44.5 or higher does the same.
Pick: Eagles +3. Over 43.5 is the second bet.
Prices are the median of 11 US sportsbooks, read on 1 October 2026 at 07:10 UTC.
Injury report
From ESPN’s injury listings for both rosters, read 1 October 2026, 07:53 UTC. Statuses change up to kickoff, and this page’s call does not price them.
Los Angeles Rams: Doubtful: Terrance Ferguson (TE, ankle – sprain), Jaylen Watson (CB, shoulder – dislocated); questionable: Kamren Kinchens (S, hamstring), Nate Landman (LB, shoulder), Josh Wallace (CB, shoulder), Puka Nacua (WR, hip – soreness), Colby Parkinson (TE, shoulder – ac joint – sprain), Aaron Donald (DT, back – soreness), Zech McPhearson (CB, undisclosed); on injured reserve: Myles Garrett (DE, knee – surgery), Ronnie Rivers (RB, calf), Keir Thomas II (LB, groin), Justin Dedich (G, undisclosed), Keagen Trost (OT, hamstring), Matthew Caldwell (QB, undisclosed), Daniel Rickert (DE, knee), Eddie Walls III (LB, undisclosed).
Philadelphia Eagles: Out: Tucker Large (S, undisclosed); doubtful: Dallas Goedert (TE, knee – mcl – sprain); questionable: Jihaad Campbell (LB, knee), Zack Baun (LB, concussion), Hollywood Brown (WR, ankle), Will Shipley (RB, foot), Moro Ojomo (DT, calf), DeVonta Smith (WR, hamstring), Fred Johnson (OT, knee), Tariq Castro-Fields (CB, heel); on injured reserve: Landon Dickerson (G, knee), Eli Stowers (TE, hamstring), Andre’ Sam (S, foot), Jakorian Bennett (CB, knee), Grant Calcaterra (TE, back), Johnny Wilson (WR, knee).