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Eagles at Jaguars prediction: No bet on Jaguars -7

By Rick AustinUpdated 6 Oct 2026

Jacksonville went from getting 1.5 to laying 7, and my number is Jaguars by 4.9. No bet on this game.

Philadelphia and Jacksonville meet at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London on Sunday 11 October, kickoff 9:30 AM ET. First the record. Our last graded card, Week 4, went 3-1 with a push: Colts -3.5, Giants +2.5 and the over 44.5 in Cardinals at Giants won, Texans -3 lost, and Seahawks -7 pushed when Seattle beat the Chargers 30-23. At one unit a bet and the prices we published, that is about 1.7 units up. Week 3 went 3-3.

How the card works, same as every week. My number is last season’s scoring for and against, 17 games each, turned into a margin, with two points for the home side and none here: London is a neutral field, and Jacksonville is the designated home team only. I bet a side or a total when the market sits three points or more away from that number. One unit on every bet, and every price is the median of the US books, read 6 October.

Jaguars -7: no bet

Jacksonville went 13-4 last season and finished plus 138. Philadelphia went 11-6 and finished plus 54. Per game that is plus 8.1 against plus 3.2, and the gap between them is my number: Jaguars by 4.9 on a neutral field.

2025 point margin in every game, Jaguars and Eagles2025 regular season, point margin in every gameJaguars13-4+16-4+7+5+3-8-28+1-7+29+3+22+17+28+14+6+34Eagles11-6+4+3+7+6-4-17+6+18+3+7-3-9-3+31+11+1-7Blue bars are wins, grey bars are losses. Neutral-site games are included here.
Source: NFL 2025 results via Nucleus, checked game by game against ESPN.

The market now says seven. Nine of 11 books hang Jacksonville -7 and two hang -6.5. That puts the market 2.1 points past my number, which is short of the three I need, and it is on the side I liked a week ago. So who is wrong? Nobody by enough to bet.

The price we gave, and where it went

On 29 September this page gave Jaguars +1.5. No book has offered Philadelphia -1.5 since 13 September, and by the read of 6 October the line had climbed through 3, 4.5 and 6 to 7.

Eagles spread from -1.5 to +7Eagles spread: the last time each line was on offer-2-1PK+1+2+3+4+5+6+7-1.513 Sep 17:10+34 Oct 17:10+4.55 Oct 15:10+66 Oct 01:10+76 Oct 04:10Higher means more points for Eagles: the market moved toward Jaguars.
Source: US sportsbooks via Nucleus, read 2026-10-06 04:20 UTC. Each point is the newest time any book quoted that line (times UTC).

If you took the Jaguars and the points from this page, you hold a ticket 8.5 points better than today’s number. Keep it. Nobody else should buy it at -7. The edge I wrote about was the gap between last season and an early price, and the market has closed most of it.

DraftKings is the reference line, Jaguars -7 at -105 and Eagles +7 at -115. Shop around: BetRivers and FanDuel still deal Jacksonville at 6.5.

The case for Jacksonville, and why it is priced

This season agrees with last. Jacksonville is 3-1 and plus 51: 34-10 over Cleveland, 20-13 lost in Denver, 35-6 over New England and 22-17 in Cincinnati. The Jaguars have allowed 13.2 a game. We took New England +3 against them in Week 3, and 35-6 was not close.

Philadelphia is 2-2 and minus 18. The Eagles beat Washington 24-22 and Tennessee 24-20, then lost 27-7 in Chicago and 24-20 at home to the Rams.

Personally, I think Jacksonville is the better team, and a seven-point price already says so. What would get me to Philadelphia is 8. The Eagles went 8-4 in one-score games last season, and four of their six losses were by seven points or fewer. At +7 that record buys a push at best.

The venue has one data point. Jacksonville’s London game last season, on 19 October 2025, was a 35-7 loss to the Rams. One game proves nothing, and I am not counting it.

The total: no bet

Forty-three at seven books and 42.5 at four. Run each offence against the other defence from last season and I land on 44.6, 1.6 over the market. Philadelphia scored 22.3 a game and allowed 19.1; Jacksonville scored 27.9 and allowed 19.8.

2025 game totals for Jaguars and Eagles against a total of 432025: total points in every game, against this week's 431020304050607043Jaguarsmedian 48Eaglesmedian 41Each dot is one 2025 regular-season game. Dots stack where games had the same total.
Source: NFL 2025 results via Nucleus, checked game by game against ESPN. The line: median of the books quoting the game.

The two teams pull apart. Jacksonville’s 2025 games went over 43 in 10 of 17, with a median of 48. Philadelphia’s went over in 8 of 17, with a median of 41.

This season the Jaguars’ four games have finished on 44, 33, 41 and 39 points, and the Eagles’ on 46, 44, 34 and 44. Books were quoting 45 and 45.5 on 1 October; it is 43 now. Nothing in either set gets me to three points. No bet.

Total from 44 to 43The total: the last time each number was on offer42.54343.54444.54545.54430 Sep 14:10451 Oct 23:1044.54 Oct 17:1043.55 Oct 15:10436 Oct 04:10Selected steps where more than five numbers were quoted.
Source: US sportsbooks via Nucleus, read 2026-10-06 04:20 UTC. Each point is the newest time any book quoted that line (times UTC).

The moneyline

The median prices are Jacksonville -312 and Philadelphia +245, across 11 books. With the margin taken out, that prices the Jaguars to win 72.3 percent of the time.

Moneyline implies Eagles 27.7 percent, Jaguars 72.3 percentChance to win the game, as pricedEagles 27.7%Jaguars 72.3%From the median moneylines of 11 books, Eagles +245 and Jaguars -312, margin removed.
Source: US sportsbooks via Nucleus, read 2026-10-06 04:20 UTC.

I price this card on points, not on win chances, so the moneyline is a check rather than a bet. At -312 the Jaguars have to win 75.7 percent of the time to break even. At +245 the Eagles need 29.0 percent. I would not lay -312 on a team my number makes a five-point favourite.

What would change it

Eagles +8 or more and I bet Philadelphia. Jaguars -1.5 or less and I bet Jacksonville, which is where this page started. The total becomes a bet at 48 for the under or 41.5 for the over.

No bet on Eagles at Jaguars, on the side or the total. If you hold the +1.5, you already have the better of this game.

The call comes from last season’s 17-game rates and the prices read on 6 October. Read both injury reports before you bet: nothing on this page says who is available.

Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars, Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London (a neutral site, ESPN, read 6 October 2026), Sunday 11 October 2026, 9:30 AM ET. Prices: median across 11 US sportsbooks via Nucleus, read 6 October 2026, 04:20 UTC. Results for 2025 and 2026: Nucleus, the 2025 season checked game by game against ESPN. Every Week 5 game: NFL Week 5 odds and predictions.