2026 Daytona 500 Odds, Prop Bets and Predictions

ay, February 15, 2026 puts the NASCAR Cup Series back on the biggest stage with the Daytona 500, the season opener and the race that can define early momentum before the schedule turns to more “form-driven” tracks. It’s a 500-mile superspeedway marathon where one clean finish can lock in confidence, points, and narrative for weeks. And, it’s the exact opposite of Cook Out Clash at Bowman Gray, which is a short-track exhibition race held two weeks prior.

Daytona, Super Bowl of racing, compresses the odds board because the same forces decide everything: pack dynamics, cautions, pit windows, and the ever-present risk of one incident collecting half the contenders. One bad lane choice can end the night.

The key storyline is obvious: William Byron is chasing a historic three-peat after winning in 2024 and 2025, while Penske’s Ford trio keeps showing up as the most reliable alliance package. The odds board is tight for a reason here’s how to attack it.

With that said, let’s take a look at the latest Daytona 500 odds and make our NASCAR Cup Series predictions for this weekend’s race at the Daytona International Speedway (DIS).

Daytona 500 Race Profile

Daytona International Speedway is a 2.5-mile, high-banked superspeedway that races like controlled chaos: runs form quickly, lanes stall just as fast, and the best cars still need help at the right time. Over 200 laps, the stress points are staged early track position matters, but the race is usually decided by late restarts, disciplined blocking, and who has committed drafting partners after the final pit cycles.

Fuel windows and pit timing can reshape the running order, while stage breaks create predictable “reset points” that often turn into restarts with immediate three-wide pressure.

• Total Miles: 500
• Total Laps: 200
• Stage 1: 65
• Stage 2: 65
• Final Stage: 70

Watch: FOX at 2:30 PM ET (streaming on FOX Sports app, NASCAR.com, and fuboTV).

Previous Daytona 500 Winners

Recent Daytona winners reinforce the core profile: elite organizations win often, but the door is open for perfectly-timed opportunists when the finish turns into late-race lane wars. Chevrolet has been strong at the top recently, but Ford and Toyota have multiple wins in this window.

• 2025: William Byron
• 2024: William Byron
• 2023: Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
• 2022: Austin Cindric
• 2021: Michael McDowell
• 2020: Denny Hamlin
• 2019: Denny Hamlin
• 2018: Austin Dillon
• 2017: Kurt Busch
• 2016: Denny Hamlin

Daytona 500 Betting Odds

Early Daytona 500 pricing reflects the usual truth: top-end talent is real, but the event still rewards alliances, patience, and being in the correct lane with two laps to go.

Reading the board: the top tier is compressed, driven by drivers with credible “be-there-late” profiles and the strongest draft infrastructure (Penske, Hendrick, Gibbs/Toyota ties). The best pockets are the mid-tier plate programs and drivers with proven Daytona closing ability numbers that can be justified if your thesis is survive + align + strike rather than “lead all day.”

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Daytona 500 Favorites

Favorites are priced as the most likely to contend, so the argument has to be cleaner than the story.

Ryan Blaney (+1000)

Blaney’s case is the most “repeatable” on the board: strong recent plate form, comfort racing in the lead pack, and a Penske structure that increases his odds of having committed help when the race gets decisive. Daytona rewards drivers who can stay forward without forcing dangerous moves in the wrong phase.

The fit is clear: in the final stage, you’re often betting whether a driver can be first or second in a pushing lane after the last green-flag pit cycle. Blaney’s alliance context makes that outcome more plausible than it is for most co-favorites.

What must go right is still Daytona: avoid the race-ending incident and land in the correct lane on the final restart sequence.

Joey Logano (+1000)

Logano is priced here because he’s built for the late-race mechanics blocking discipline, lane control, and the willingness to make the decisive move without overcommitting too early. In the 500, that timing matters more than raw speed.

His edge is structural and tactical. Penske support is meaningful, and Logano is one of the best at turning “manufacturer momentum” into protected track position. If the finish becomes a two-lane chess match, he’s comfortable living in it.

He wins when the final laps are about decisions and leverage, not clean air.

William Byron (+1100)

Byron’s headline is simple: he’s won this race back-to-back (2024, 2025) and is chasing a three-peat. That’s not a guarantee of anything at Daytona, but it does validate that he and Hendrick can consistently get to the moments that matter late.

The fit is speed plus execution. Hendrick’s plate program is strong, and Byron has shown he can stay relevant without needing to control the race from the front for 150 laps. In this event, being a “quiet top-12” for long stretches can be the correct path.

What must go right is the same as any favorite: survive the attrition and avoid getting trapped in the stalled lane with 10 to go.

Denny Hamlin (+1500)

Hamlin is the classic high-ceiling Daytona favorite. He has multiple Daytona 500 wins in his history and is comfortable managing the final-stage chaos timing runs, controlling blocks, and using alliances to create a winning push. The price is longer than the co-favorites because the variance is higher, not because the path is unrealistic.

Toyota strength matters if the final stage becomes a manufacturer battle, and Hamlin is one of the few drivers who can manufacture a win by creating the last run instead of waiting for it.

He needs a race where the decisive moments reward veteran control more than pure lane luck.

The Best Daytona 500 Betting Value

This section is about price vs path to contention.

Austin Cindric (+1200)

Cindric’s value is that his Daytona win conditions are well-defined and repeatable: stay attached to the right partners, push effectively, and be positioned to receive the final shove. He already has a Daytona 500 win (2022), and he fits the modern superspeedway profile strong in the draft, strong in the lane game.

With Penske support, he doesn’t need to be the headliner all day. He needs to be the Penske car in the winning lane when the race turns into a two-lap sprint. At this price range, the combination of structure + skill is difficult to ignore.

Brad Keselowski (+1400)

Keselowski is a value favorite because RFK’s plate speed has been a real factor, and his willingness to control the front can matter in a race where many drivers are trying to survive rather than dictate. If RFK can keep its cars connected, Keselowski has a credible lane to leading late.

His win condition is practical: run forward enough to avoid getting shuffled into bad air, then use Ford depth to either defend a strong lane or jump to the lane that has momentum after the final pit sequence.

If Ford lanes organize, he’s one of the most dangerous “not-top-two” prices.

Bubba Wallace (+2200)

At +2200, Wallace offers a clean “price vs path” profile because his best-case Daytona outcome is realistic: stay within the top two lanes, maintain Toyota ties for the final stage, and be positioned to capitalize if the leaders get tangled in the final 10 laps. Daytona winners often look obvious only in hindsight.

The key is lane access late. If the Toyota line is functional and he’s top-10 with two to go, the number becomes very live.

The Top Daytona 500 Longshot

At +4000, Michael McDowell is priced where Daytona volatility actually matters. He has already won this race (2021), and the longshot thesis fits the event: he can run a survival-first 400 miles, avoid the biggest trouble, and still be present when the finish becomes pure geometry blocks, pushes, and stalled lanes.

The win condition is specific and reasonable: hang around the top 12–15, miss the race-ending incident, execute clean late pit cycles, then choose the correct lane on the final restart. At this number, you’re buying the scenario that happens every year one clean car with a smart driver ends up in the fight late.

Daytona 500 Predictions

The drivers most likely to matter late are the ones with both a high ceiling and a realistic “stay-alive” plan: Blaney, Logano, Byron, Cindric, Hamlin, and Keselowski all have credible paths to being in the winning lane after the last green-flag pit cycle. That mix covers the strongest alliance structure (Penske/Ford), the hottest recent winner profile (Byron/Hendrick), and the veteran closer (Hamlin/Toyota).

The final pick here is about the best blend of ceiling and survivability. In the Daytona 500, you want a driver who can spend long stretches near the front without manufacturing risk then flip the switch when the race becomes a two-lap shootout.

Blaney checks the most boxes: reliable superspeedway form, strong Penske support, and a win path that doesn’t require dominating the race from lap 1.

Bet: Ryan Blaney (+1000)

Daytona 500 Prop Bets

Let’s take a look at the following Daytona 500 prop bets:

Joey Logano Top 5 Finish (-120)

Logano is consistently positioned to cash placement bets at Daytona because he tends to race with intent forward enough to control his fate, but disciplined enough to avoid unnecessary exposure until the finish demands it. Over 500 miles, that approach matters.

This prop is still vulnerable to late attrition, but Logano’s “be-there-late” profile is exactly what a top-five ticket needs.

Pick: Joey Logano Top 5 (-120)

Ryan Blaney to Win (+1000)

This is the purest expression of the Ford/Penske thesis. If the winning lane is Ford-led and organized, Blaney is priced appropriately as the driver most likely to be either the lead car or the best-positioned car in that line when the final restart settles.

You’re betting alliance reliability more than lap-leading volume and that’s the correct frame for Daytona.

Pick: Ryan Blaney to Win (+1000)

Over 8.5 Laps Led by Winner (-110)

Daytona winners often lead late, but some also control meaningful stretches before the final-stage chaos peaks especially if their manufacturer line is organized and they can hold the preferred lane. With 200 laps and multiple stage segments, getting to 9+ laps led is plausible even if the winner doesn’t dominate.

This prop benefits from a race that stays relatively green through the middle portion, allowing one group to control the front for longer runs.

Pick: Over 8.5 Laps Led by Winner (-110)

Any Driver to Lead Lap 1 (+300)

Lap 1 frequently rewards the initial launch and early control before the pack fully commits to aggressive lane swaps. Even when the field shuffles quickly, the first trip through Turns 1 and 2 often reflects the advantage of starting at the front.

This is a structure bet, not a winner bet.

Pick: Any Driver to Lead Lap 1 (+300)

Winning Manufacturer

Manufacturer outcomes are a proxy for which alliance is most likely to be organized late. With Penske and RFK strength in the mix, Ford has a clear lane to controlling the decisive push sequences.

• Ford (+100)
• Chevrolet (odds not provided)
• Toyota (odds not provided)

Pick: Ford (+100)