MLB Manager of the Year Odds have reached their final regular-season stage. Chicago finished 84-78 and settled for an American League Wild Card after Cleveland won the AL Central, while Tampa Bay closed at 98-64 with the best record in the league. Will Venable remains the AL betting favorite, but Kevin Cash now owns an even stronger alternative case after the Rays completed a 21-win improvement and captured the AL East.
The National League race also has its final résumé. Pat Murphy’s Milwaukee Brewers finished 103-59 with the best record in Major League Baseball, while Walt Weiss guided Atlanta from 76-86 in 2025 to a 94-68 NL East championship. Murphy remains the ScoresAndStats prediction, with Weiss the preferred plus-money alternative.
Manager of the Year ballots are submitted before the postseason begins, so October results do not affect the award. That makes the final 162-game records the last meaningful evidence for voters, even though some betting markets can remain listed until books close the award.
Quick Manager of the Year Betting Takeaways
- AL favorite: Will Venable around -300.
- AL prediction: Will Venable.
- Best new AL value: Kevin Cash around +190 or better.
- AL longshot: Stephen Vogt around +2000 after Cleveland won the AL Central.
- NL favorite: Pat Murphy around -455.
- NL prediction: Pat Murphy.
- Best NL alternative: Walt Weiss at +400 or better.
- Best existing tickets: Earlier Venable +105, Cash +425, Weiss +600 and Murphy +240 positions remain substantially better than late-season prices.
How MLB Manager of the Year Voting Works
The Baseball Writers’ Association of America selects one Manager of the Year in each league. There are 30 voters for the American League award and 30 for the National League award.
Each voter submits three managers. A first-place vote is worth five points, second place receives three and third place receives one. The manager with the most total points wins.
The timing is critical for bettors. Ballots are submitted before the postseason begins, which means playoff results are not part of the evaluation. Tampa Bay winning a playoff series cannot improve Cash’s award case, and Milwaukee losing early would not weaken Murphy’s 103-win regular season.
MLB Manager of the Year Odds 2026
The latest available market continues to make Venable the clear AL favorite and Murphy the heavy NL favorite. Cash and Weiss remain the primary plus-money challengers.
Odds last checked: September 28, 2026. Prices and market availability can change.
American League Manager of the Year Odds
| Manager | Team | Latest Observed Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Will Venable | White Sox | Approx. -300 |
| Kevin Cash | Rays | Approx. +190 |
| Stephen Vogt | Guardians | Approx. +2000 |
| Chad Tracy | Red Sox | Approx. +3000 |
| Aaron Boone | Yankees | Approx. +9000 |
National League Manager of the Year Odds
| Manager | Team | Latest Observed Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Pat Murphy | Brewers | Approx. -455 |
| Walt Weiss | Braves | Approx. +400 |
| Craig Stammen | Padres | Approx. +1300 |
| Don Mattingly | Phillies | Approx. +1800 |
| Torey Lovullo | Diamondbacks | Approx. +2500 |
A price around -300 gives Venable an implied break-even probability near 75 percent, while Cash at +190 needs approximately 34.5 percent. Murphy at roughly -455 requires about 82 percent, compared with only 20 percent for Weiss at +400.
Those differences explain why the strongest prediction and the preferred new wager are not necessarily the same manager.
Final Regular-Season Manager of the Year Résumés
The regular season is complete, so the improvement numbers can now be evaluated without projecting the final weekend.
| Manager | 2026 Result | Year-Over-Year Change |
|---|---|---|
| Will Venable | 84-78, Wild Card | +24 wins |
| Kevin Cash | 98-64, AL East champion | +21 wins |
| Stephen Vogt | 85-77, AL Central champion | -3 wins |
| Pat Murphy | 103-59, NL Central champion | +6 wins |
| Walt Weiss | 94-68, NL East champion | +18 wins |
| Craig Stammen | 91-71, Wild Card | +1 win |
AL Manager of the Year Prediction: Will Venable
Venable did not get the clean ending that would have made his case nearly impossible to challenge. Chicago entered the final weekend one game behind Cleveland and ultimately finished 84-78, one game behind the Guardians in the AL Central.
That cost Venable a division championship, but it did not erase the central argument supporting his candidacy. The White Sox went 60-102 in 2025. One year later, they won 84 games and reached the postseason.
A 24-win improvement after a 102-loss season gives voters one of the clearest turnaround stories on the ballot. Chicago did not simply become respectable. It moved from the bottom of the league into October contention in Venable’s first season.
The problem is the current price. At roughly -300, a bettor needs Venable to win approximately three quarters of the time just to reach the break-even point. Missing the division title makes that price more difficult to justify than it would have been if Chicago had finished first.
ScoresAndStats AL Prediction: Will Venable.
Betting decision: Hold earlier Venable positions, but pass on a new wager around -300. A return toward -250 or better would provide a more reasonable risk-to-reward profile.
Kevin Cash Is the Best New AL Value
Cash now owns the strongest pure team-performance résumé in the American League. Tampa Bay finished 98-64, won the AL East and secured the best record in the league after going only 77-85 in 2025.
That is a 21-win improvement combined with a division championship and the AL’s No. 1 postseason seed. Venable’s turnaround is three wins larger, but Cash finished 14 games ahead of Chicago and has the stronger combination of improvement and overall record.
The price creates the betting argument. Cash around +190 carries an implied break-even probability of approximately 34.5 percent. That is considerably easier to defend than Venable requiring around 75 percent at -300.
The main risk is that voters view Chicago’s transformation from 102 losses to a postseason berth as the more impressive managerial achievement, regardless of the final standings gap.
Best New AL Value: Kevin Cash at +190 or better.
Can Stephen Vogt or Chad Tracy Win the AL Award?
Stephen Vogt added another division championship when Cleveland finished 85-77 and held off Chicago by one game. That result strengthens his final-weekend narrative, but the Guardians actually won three fewer games than they did in 2025.
Vogt is also attempting to win the award for a third consecutive season after taking the AL honor in both 2024 and 2025. At approximately +2000, the payout is large, but he must overcome two candidates whose clubs improved by more than 20 wins.
Chad Tracy also has a legitimate turnaround story. Boston was 10-17 when the managerial change occurred and eventually finished 87-75 with a Wild Card berth. The Red Sox’s recovery deserves ballot consideration, but the market has moved Tracy to approximately +3000 because Venable and Cash have stronger full-season cases.
NL Manager of the Year Prediction: Pat Murphy
Murphy’s case ended exactly where a heavy favorite would want it to end. Milwaukee finished 103-59, the best record in Major League Baseball and six wins better than the Brewers’ already excellent 97-65 finish in 2025.
The Brewers won the NL Central by 14 games and secured the National League’s No. 1 seed. No other NL contender can match that combination of wins, division dominance and overall regular-season performance.
Murphy is trying to do something unprecedented by winning Manager of the Year for a third consecutive season. That creates the clearest argument against him: voters may prefer a fresher turnaround story after already recognizing Murphy in both 2024 and 2025.
The betting price also creates a problem. Approximately -455 implies a break-even probability near 82 percent. Murphy can be the strongest prediction without being an attractive late entry at such a demanding number.
ScoresAndStats NL Prediction: Pat Murphy.
Betting decision: Hold earlier Murphy positions, including the much stronger +240 range available earlier in September. Pass on a new wager around -455, with -400 or better the preferred ceiling for consideration.
Walt Weiss Remains the Best NL Plus-Money Alternative
Weiss finished his first season as Atlanta manager with a 94-68 record and an NL East title. The Braves went only 76-86 in 2025, producing an 18-win improvement and a return to the postseason.
That is the type of year-over-year change that normally performs well in Manager of the Year voting. It also gives Weiss a different case from Murphy. Milwaukee represents sustained excellence at an even higher level, while Atlanta represents a dramatic rebound following a losing season.
At +400, Weiss needs to win approximately 20 percent of the time to justify the price. That threshold is far less demanding than Murphy’s implied probability above 80 percent.
The main risk is obvious. Milwaukee won nine more games than Atlanta and finished with the best record in baseball. If voters simply reward the manager of the most dominant regular-season team, Murphy has a powerful advantage.
Best NL Plus-Money Alternative: Walt Weiss at +400 or better.
Do the Other NL Manager Candidates Have a Path?
Craig Stammen finished 91-71 with San Diego and reached the postseason, but the Padres remained a Wild Card team rather than winning the NL West. At approximately +1300, he would need enough voters to look beyond both Milwaukee’s league-best record and Atlanta’s 18-win turnaround.
Don Mattingly helped Philadelphia recover from a 9-19 start to finish 88-74 and reach the postseason. That in-season turnaround is significant, but the Phillies finished six games behind Weiss and Atlanta in the NL East. His approximately +1800 price reflects the difficulty of jumping both Murphy and Weiss on enough ballots.
Torey Lovullo’s Arizona team improved from 80-82 to 86-76, but the Diamondbacks missed the postseason. That makes his path particularly difficult in a field filled with managers who combined improvement with October qualification.
Final MLB Manager of the Year Predictions and Best Bets
| Category | ScoresAndStats Pick | Betting Decision |
|---|---|---|
| AL Prediction | Will Venable | Pass around -300 |
| Best New AL Value | Kevin Cash | +190 or better |
| AL Longshot | Stephen Vogt | Long odds, difficult ballot path |
| NL Prediction | Pat Murphy | Pass around -455 |
| Best NL Alternative | Walt Weiss | +400 or better |
The final regular-season results strengthen the distinction between predicting an award and betting it. Venable remains the AL prediction because Chicago’s 24-win improvement after a 102-loss season is difficult to ignore, but Cash offers the more appealing new price after winning 98 games and the AL East.
Murphy remains the NL prediction after Milwaukee reached 103 wins and finished with MLB’s best record. Weiss offers the better payout for bettors willing to back Atlanta’s 18-win improvement and division-winning turnaround.
Once Manager of the Year wagering closes, postseason futures become the more actionable MLB market. Bettors can compare the latest MLB pennant odds and predictions or follow individual postseason games through the MLB predictions board.
Recent MLB Manager of the Year Winners
| Season | AL Winner | NL Winner |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Stephen Vogt | Pat Murphy |
| 2024 | Stephen Vogt | Pat Murphy |
| 2023 | Brandon Hyde | Skip Schumaker |
| 2022 | Terry Francona | Buck Showalter |
| 2021 | Kevin Cash | Gabe Kapler |
Murphy would become the first manager to win three consecutive Manager of the Year awards if he takes the 2026 NL honor. Vogt is attempting the same three-year streak in the American League, although his current market position is much longer than Murphy’s.
When Is the 2026 MLB Manager of the Year Announced?
The BBWAA announces its annual award winners in November. The voting itself takes place before the postseason, and the three finalists announced ahead of the winner are simply the top three finishers in the completed voting.
That means there is no need to adjust the Manager of the Year prediction based on October wins or losses. The 2026 regular-season résumés are complete.
MLB Manager of the Year FAQs
Who is favored to win AL Manager of the Year in 2026?
Will Venable is the current American League Manager of the Year favorite at approximately -300. Kevin Cash is the main challenger around +190 after Tampa Bay finished 98-64 and won the AL East.
Who is favored to win NL Manager of the Year in 2026?
Pat Murphy is the current National League Manager of the Year favorite at approximately -455. Walt Weiss is the leading plus-money challenger around +400 after Atlanta finished 94-68 and won the NL East.
What is the ScoresAndStats AL Manager of the Year prediction?
Will Venable remains the ScoresAndStats AL prediction after guiding Chicago from 60-102 in 2025 to 84-78 and a postseason berth in 2026. Kevin Cash offers the more attractive new betting price around +190.
What is the ScoresAndStats NL Manager of the Year prediction?
Pat Murphy remains the ScoresAndStats NL prediction after Milwaukee finished 103-59 with the best record in Major League Baseball. Walt Weiss is the preferred plus-money alternative at +400 or better.
Do MLB playoff results affect Manager of the Year voting?
No. BBWAA voters submit Manager of the Year ballots before the postseason begins, so playoff performance does not affect the award. The 2026 decision is based on regular-season accomplishments.
When will the 2026 MLB Manager of the Year winners be announced?
The BBWAA announces the Manager of the Year winners during its annual November awards period. The finalists revealed beforehand are the three managers who finished highest in the voting.
Betting involves risk. Odds can change quickly, and no pick is guaranteed. Always bet responsibly and only wager what you can afford to lose.