The first round of the 2025 PFL tournament is set to wrap up this week, with a mixture of heavyweight and light heavyweight battles arriving for PFL on Thursday, May 1st.

This has been a really fun tournament so far, and the PFL 4 odds are out so you can get your bets in as soon as you’d like. If you need a little help finalizing your bets, we continue to hand out PFL and UFC picks, so you’ve arrived at the right place.

I’ll answer some key PFL 4 questions, look at the latest PFL betting odds, and offer my top picks and predictions as we close out round one.

How To Watch PFL World Tournament 4?

If you want to watch PFL 4 this week, just tune into ESPN+ at 6:30 pm EST. That’s where the Prelims will be hosted, while the main card can be seen on both ESPN+ and ESPN2, with the first fight starting at 9:00 pm EST.

When Is PFL World Tournament 4?

The first round of the PFL 4 tourney wraps up this Thursday, May 1st, 2025. 

Where Is PFL World Tournament 4? 

Want to watch the PFL World Tournament 4 in person? You can get tickets and head to Universal Studios in Orlando, Florida to take in the final batch of round one fights live.

PFL World Tournament Schedule

Check out the upcoming 2025 PFL World Tournament schedule:

• April 3: 2025 PFL World Tournament 1: First Round 
• April 11: 2025 PFL World Tournament 2: First Round 
• April 18: 2025 PFL World Tournament 3: First Round 
• May 1: 2025 PFL World Tournament 4: First Round 
• June 12: 2025 PFL World Tournament 5: Semifinals 
• June 20: 2025 PFL World Tournament 6: Semifinals 
• June 27: 2025 PFL World Tournament 7: Semifinals 
• August 12: 2025 PFL World Tournament 8: Finals 
• August 15: 2025 PFL World Tournament 9: Finals 
• August 21: 2025 PFL World Tournament 10: Finals 

PFL World Tournament 4 Main Card Odds

Check out the latest PFL World Tournament 4 odds for the Main Card, courtesy of the top sports betting sites: 

PFL 4 is the exact type of mixed martial arts fight card you want to seek help on, as all of these main event bouts are priced so close to the chest.

This is what happens when dealing with live heavyweight and heavyweight fighters, of course, as all of these dudes are tough, and yet they all can typically end fights with one punch.

What’s nice about this is you’re getting good value no matter who you bet on – the favorite or the underdog. I’ve got you covered either way, as you can roll with my PFL 4 predictions above, or read on for a bit more analysis for each matchup.

Need even more help before placing your PFL 4 bets? Check out the best handicappers the internet has to offer!

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PFL World Tournament 4 Predictions For The Main Card

The PFL 4 main card can be viewed on ESPN+ and ESPN2 starting at 9:00 pm EST.

Rob Wilkinson (-150) vs. Phil Davis (+120)

The 33-year old Rob Wilkinson (19-3) is hoping to successfully bounce back from a doping scandal still hanging over him like a dark cloud from 2023. He’s struggled to regain his old form to an extent, as he dropped a Decision loss to Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov last August.

That was the first loss for Wilkinson since getting TKO’d by Israel Adesanya back in 2018. He’d been on a heater, winning eight of nine, with a no contest against Thiago Santos.

All things told, he has the power (10 KOs) and well-rounded skill-set (7 submissions) to do nasty work in the PFL 4 tourney. After all, he won this thing back in 2022, and he’s been pretty tough to take out for a while now.

It does seem like Phil Davis (24-7) is up to the task, however. Mr. Wonderful is 40 now and a lot of his matches have gone the distance, but he’s never been finished once across 31 fights.

I don’t know if I feel super confident he loses by stoppage here, but of the two fighters, Wilkinson undeniably offers more finishing upside. He also is far younger and has a huge narrative backing him.

Taking Davis out won’t be easy, but I think that’s the most likely outcome here.

Bet: Rob Wilkinson (-150)

Valentin Moldavsky (-150) vs. Sergei Bilostenniy (+120)

Our first heavyweight clash on this explosive main card pits Valentin Moldavsky (13-3) against Sergei Bilostenniy (13-3). 

These guys have identical records, but Moldavsky enters PFL 4 as the slight favorite. He hasn’t exactly been lighting the world afire, of course, as he has lost to Linton Vassell twice over his last four matches. He also hasn’t been finishing opponents with much regularity, as he TKO’d Ante Delija last April, but that’s his only victory by stoppage in his last 10 matches.

It remains to be seen if Bilostenniy can hang with Moldavsky, but he certainly has been the more prolific fighter of late. He’s a guy who has never been KO’d in his career, but has been ending fights early on a consistent basis. He made Tyrell Fortune tap out last August, and he’s won early in each of his last three fights.

In fact, Sergei’s lone “loss” since 2018 came due to disqualification. He’s on fire right now and has the ability to end this thing in a hurry. I’m willing to roll the dice on his +120 price tag.

Bet: Sergei Bilostenniy (+120)

Karl Moore (-135) vs. Antonio Carlos Jr. (+105)

The form has been largely good for Karl Moore (12-3), who enters PFL 4 as a mild favorite to beat Antonio Carlos Jr. (16-6). He dropped a Decision to Corey Anderson in his last fight, but was riding a four-fight winning strike prior to that.

The 33-year old lacks elite finishing ability and hasn’t been super active (just one fight last year), but he hasn’t been finished in six years and offers a versatile skill-set. His opponent has eaten several more losses throughout his career, with Carlos Jr. lacking any finishing upside with his fists.

He’s going to be the aggressor if the fight gets to the mat, however, as he has 12 career submissions and he never tapped out, himself. Carlos Jr. dropped his last fight in a Decision versus Alex Polizzi, but has otherwise been fantastic (6-1-1) over his last eight bouts.

Moore is the favorite, but I prefer Carlos Jr. here. He has a major advantage in the submission game, plus he has a pretty glaring four-inch reach edge. That, plus Moore’s lack of ability to finish this fight on the feet could set him up for the upset.

Bet: Antonio Carlos Jr. (+105)

Simeon Powell (-160) vs. Karl Albrektsson (+130)

We get a fun one to close out the main card, as the 26-year old Simeon Powell is the biggest favorite we’ve touched on so far. He comes in with a stout 10-1 career record, and he’s been pretty versatile out of the gates.

The man known as Smooth did get tripped up via a TKO loss to Jakob Nedoh in December of 2023, but that’s his lone career defeat. He also bounced back nicely by taking a Decision win over Rafael Xavier last September, while he sports a massive 10-inch reach advantage going into this week’s fight.

Karl Albrektsson (14-6) is a capable fighter with respectable finishing ability (10 fights by stoppage), but he’s also just 1-3 over his last four bouts. He did TKO Ederson Cristian Macedo in November of 2023, but he himself has been finished twice since 2022.

Albrektsson is five years older, in worse form, and is showing increased vulnerability. Throw in the wild reach edge for Powell, and he feels like a slam dunk pick.

Bet: Simeon Powell (-160)

PFL World Tournament 4 Preliminary Odds

Check out the latest PFL World Tournament 4 odds for the Preliminary Card, courtesy of the top sports betting sites: 

On the PFL prelims, Alexandr Romanov is a massive betting favorite who doesn’t offer any value. However, we do believe see fighters like Marcelo Nunes pulling off the upset and scoring fantastic value for bettors.

PFL World Tournament 4 Predictions For The Preliminary Card

The PFL 4 Prelims get going at 6:30 pm EST on ESPN+.

Alexandr Romanov (-550) vs. Tim Johnson (+400)

I’m old enough to remember when Alexandr Romanov (18-3) was supposed to take the UFC by storm. King Kong did get his UFC career off to a hot start, as he scored a submission in his debut and went 4-0 across his first four fights.

The competition was too much after that, however, as he dropped three of his next fights. He’s now made the shift to PFL, where he is a massive favorite to upend Tim Johnson.

I see no reason to bet against Romanov here. His three career losses have come against much better fighters, with his lone KO defeat coming by the hands of the legendary Alexander Volkov.

Tim Johnson (18-11) is no scrub. He certainly had his time to shine in the UFC, while he has a solid 10 knockouts on his resume. He’s past his prime at age 40, however, and he’s going backwards with losses by stoppage in each of his last two fights.

Romanov does lose three inches in reach here, but he’s still technically in his fighting prime and has been the more dominant fighter. Johnson is live to stage the upset due to his experience and KO ability, but I’d either target Ramanov or avoid this fight altogether.

Bet: Alexandr Romanov (-550)

Oleg Popov (-400) vs. Linton Vassell (+250)

The main card is full of would-be toss-ups, but we’re already knee-deep in our second Prelims bout that is priced at -400 or higher. Oleg Popov (19-2) has nine career KOs to his name and the 33-year old has never been knocked out.

He has been submitted once, and it’s certainly worth noting that it came in his last fight against Denis Golstov in November of last year. Popov had been ablaze before that loss, of course, as he took out Linton Vassell last August to get an insane 17th consecutive victory.

Popov is a very good bet to bounce back from his first ever loss by early stoppage, and just the second defeat of his career. The fact that he’s beaten Vassell before bodes well for him, while Vassell (24-10) is now 41 and has developed a soft chin (5 KO losses).

I do think his skill-set and experience make him an interesting upset pick at +250, but all signs point to Popov getting the win here.

Bet: Oleg Popov (-400)

Sullivan Cauley (-160) vs. Marcelo Nunes (+120)

We have some less experienced fighters facing off in this one, as Sullivan Cauley (6-1) has a nice record, but has just seven matches under his belt. He’s looked good in them, of course, as he has five KOs to his name, representing his dominance in Bellator.

Cauley could be a bit vulnerable when it comes to submission defense, as he did tap out against Luke Trainer back in 2023. That could become a problem against Marcelo Nunes (11-2), who has eight submissions to his name and is the more experienced mixed martial artist.

To be frank, I think Cauley could be in some trouble here. He’s a physically imposing and explosive fighter, but Nunes is more experienced and has a 1.5-inch reach edge. I expect a finish here, so I would be looking for a Cauley KO, a Nunes submission, or for this one to simply end inside the distance.

That said, if you need to back a fighter straight up, I’ll roll with Nunes at +120.

Bet: Marcelo Nunes (+120)

Rodrigo Nascimento (-150) vs. Abraham Bably (+110)

Another guy who flamed out of the UFC is Rodrigo Nascimento (11-3). He got off to a nice start with a submission win in his debut, and for a while there he displayed some upside during a 4-1-1 showing.

Things unraveled from there, however. He got TKO’d by Derrick Lewis, and was then out-worked by Alexandr Romanov. I don’t think any of his losses in the UFC were bad, however, and he is the rightful favorite in his first round PFL matchup.

Bably (5-1) is far less experienced and doesn’t bring much versatility to the table. He’s avoided being finished to this point, but he’s going to win with his fists or bust. Nascimento can be vulnerable to knockouts, but he’s the more skilled fighter and he possesses a monstrous six-inch reach edge in this one.

Bet: Rodrigo Nascimento (-150)

Alex Polizzi (-230) vs. Rafael Xavier (+160)

Lastly, we have Alex Polizzi (11-4), who is a sizable betting favorite thanks to his versatility and solid finishing ability. Eight of his 11 wins have come by stoppage, while most of his losses are nothing to be ashamed of.

Seriously, he’s just 1-3 over his last four fights, but those defeats came by the hands of Impa Kasanganay, Karl Moore, and Yoel Romero. Two of those for sure aren’t anything to downgrade Polizzi over, and Moore didn’t even finish him.

Polizzi has explosive ability, and it isn’t crazy at all to suggest he could get back on track against the older Rafael Xavier (13-8). Xavier has eaten numerous losses in his career, but it’s worth noting he has been finished just once in his entire career.

Xavier (9 KOs) has also been explosive in his own right. That said, he’s faced a lot of low level competition, and taking out Polizzi won’t be easy. I think this one is a little closer than the betting lines suggest, but I still side with Polizzi.

Bet: Alex Polizzi (-230)

The Best PFL World Tournament Picks

The following is our best PFL World Tournament picks for this week’s event:

• Rob Wilkinson (-150)
• Simeon Powell (-160)
• Alexandr Romanov (-550)

It’s definitely dicey when you start betting on light heavyweights and heavyweights, but Alexandr Romanov is the easiest pick to back at PFL 4.

His moneyline is steep, so I’d definitely make a play for an inside the distance win. That said, he is a very good bet to at least get the win.

You’re getting much better value with guys like Wilkinson and Powell. They are correctly coming in as betting favorites, but you could make a strong case that both are priced too softly. I think they could be argued as -200 favorites, so I want all of this valuy who has never been knocked out, but there’s a first time for everything. You don’t need a KO at his -175 price, anyways.

PFL Fight Card

Check out the updated PFL World Tournament 4 fight card:

PFL World Tournament 1 Results

Here’s a quick recap of the PFL World Tournament 1 results:

PFL Welterweight Results

• Welterweight: Jason Jackson def. Andrey Koreshkov via 2^nd rd. Submission
• Welterweight: Logan Storley def. Joseph Luciano via UD
• Welterweight: Thad Jean def. Mukhamed Berkhamov via 1^st rd. KO
• Welterweight: Masayuki Kikuiri def. Giannis Bachar via 2^nd rd. TKO

PFL Featherweight Results

• Featherweight: Jesus Pinedo def. Adam Borics via 1^st rd. TKO
• Featherweight: Movlid Khaybulaev def. Jeremy Kennedy via SD
• Featherweight Gabriel Braga def. Frederik Dupras via 1^st rd. Submission
• Featherweight: Tae Kyun Kim def. Nathan Kelly via 1^st rd. Submission

PFL World Tournament 2 Results

Here’s a quick recap of the PFL World Tournament 2 results:

PFL Bantamweight Results

• Bantamweight: Marcirley Alves def. Leandro Higo via SD
• Bantamweight: Mando Gutierrez def. Francesco Nuzzi via 1^st rd. Submission
• Bantamweight: Justin Wetzell def. Kasum Kasumov via UD
• Bantamweight: Jake Hadley def. Matheus Mattos via 3^rd rd. Submission

PFL Women’s Flyweight Results

• Women’s Flyweight: Liz Carmouche def. Ilara Joanne via 1^st rd. TKO
• Women’s Flyweight: Ekaterina Shakalova def. Juliana Velasquez via 1^st rd. Submission
• Women’s Flyweight: Jena Bishop def. Kana Watanabe via UD
• Women’s Flyweight: Elora Dana def. Diana Avsaragova via 1^st rd. Submission

PFL World Tournament 3 Results

Here’s a quick recap of the PFL World Tournament 3 results:

PFL Middleweight Results

• Middleweight: Fabian Edwards def. Impa Kasanganay via 2^nd rd. TKO
• Middleweight: Dalton Rosta def. Sadibou Sy via submission via 2^nd rd. Submission
• Middleweight First Round Bout: Josh Silveira def. Mike Shipman via UD
• Middleweight First Round Bout: Aaron Jeffery def. Murad Ramazanov via SD

PFL Lightweight Results

• Lightweight: Gadzhi Rabadanov def. Marc Diakiese via 1^st rd. TKO
• Lightweight: Jay-Jay Wilson def. Mads Burnell via 3^rd. TKO strikes
• Lightweight: Alfie Davis def. Clay Collard via 1^st rd. TKO
• Lightweight: Brent Primus def. Vinicius Cenci via 3^rd rd. Submission