Tampa Bay Lightning vs Detroit Red Wings April 11th 2025

The Red Wings and Lightning are set to face off at 7:00 ET on ESPN+. The Lightning will host the game at Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL. This Atlantic division matchup has an over/under of 6 goals, and the Lightning are favored by -1.5 at home vs. the Red Wings.

Detroit vs. Tampa Bay Key Information

• Teams: Red Wings at Lightning
• Where: Amalie Arena Tampa
• Date: Friday, April 11th
• Betting Odds TB -287 | DET +235 O/U 6

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The Red Wings Can Win If…

With a 2-1 win over the Sabres, the Red Wings moved above .500, now sitting at 36-35-7. Detroit, favored by -1.5 goals, didn’t cover the puck line. The total was set at 6.5 goals, but the combined score of 3 fell well short.

After giving up a goal in the first period, the Red Wings responded with two goals in the second. Both of Detroit’s goals came from Dylan Larkin, and both were on the power play.

Detroit’s offense took 23 shots on goal but only found the net twice in their 2-1 win over Buffalo. Both goals came on power plays in the second period, with Dylan Larkin scoring his 6th and 7th goals of the season.

After a scoreless first period, Larkin’s first goal came 7:49 into the second, followed by his second at 14:38. Alex DeBrincat picked up his 4th assist on Larkin’s second goal, while Lucas Raymond added his 10th assist of the season.

Defensively, the Red Wings gave up the first goal at 11:39 in the first period, but they shut down the Sabres after that, securing a 2-1 win. Cam Talbot made 31 saves with a 96.9% save percentage, and the defense added 4 takeaways and 11 hits.

• Through their last three regular season contests, Detroit has a record of 1-2. Across these games, their puck line record was just 0-3, while posting an over-under record of 0-3.
• Over their last ten regular season games, the Red Wings have gone 4-6 straight up. Their record against the puck line in this stretch is 4-6 to go along with an over-under mark of 4-6.

The Lightning Can Win If…

The Lightning fell to 45-27-7 after a 7-4 loss to the Jets. Tampa Bay led 2-0 early, but Winnipeg responded with seven of the next nine goals. The total for the game was set at 6.5 goals, and the combined 11 goals easily surpassed that mark. Tampa Bay, as underdogs on the puck line, failed to cover.

Four different Lightning players scored in the game. Tampa Bay’s defense struggled, allowing four goals in the third period, including two empty-netters. The Lightning’s first goal came at 13:11 in the first period, but the Jets tied it up at 2-2 in the second period.

In their 7-4 loss to the Jets, the Lightning fired 30 shots on goal and scored four times. Brandon Hagel opened the scoring with his 7th goal of the season, while Brayden Point followed with his 8th, finding the net on a power play. Mitchell Chaffee added his 4th goal, and Nikita Kucherov scored his 10th.

Tampa Bay had 8 giveaways and picked up 4 assists. Jake Guentzel, with his 8th assist of the season, and Nick Paul, with his 7th, contributed on Chaffee’s goal. Victor Hedman and Kucherov each recorded their 10th assists on Point’s power-play goal.

Tampa Bay’s defense struggled late, allowing the Jets to score the final three goals of the game, including two empty-netters. The Lightning had tied the game at 4-4, but their defense faltered, giving up the go-ahead goal at the 7:38 mark of the 3rd period. Jonas Johansson recorded 27 saves with a save percentage of 84.4%.

• Across Tampa Bay’s last three regular season games, their record sits at 1-2. In these contests, the team went just 1-2 against the spread, while going 2-1 on the over-under.
• Over their last ten regular season games, the Lightning have gone 5-5 straight up. Against the spread, Tampa Bay went 5-5 in these games and finished with an over-under mark of 6-3-1.

The Lean

For a moneyline bet, I’m backing the Red Wings to secure a victory over the Lightning on the road. With the moneyline currently set at +235, I’m locking in my bet on the Red Wings straight-up.

If you’re looking to get a bet down on this matchup, we foresee the Red Wings winning the underdog. However, if you’re not as confident in the Red Wings straight-up, we’d still recommend placing a bet on them to cover the puck line.

With an over/under line sitting at 6 goals, we like this game to surpass that mark and recommend getting a bet down on the over.

Daily NHL Picks & Predictions from The Best Expert Hockey Handicappers

Detroit Red Wings on Brink of Elimination Ahead of Critical Clash With Tampa Bay Lightning

The Detroit Red Wings’ playoff hopes are flickering, and their next game against the Tampa Bay Lightning could be the final nail in the coffin. With only four games remaining, Detroit finds itself in a near-impossible situation: win every game, hope the Montreal Canadiens lose all theirs, and pray for a perfect storm of favorable outcomes elsewhere.

Red Wings: Running Out of Time

Currently sitting at 36-35-7 with 79 points, the Red Wings are chasing the second wild-card spot held by the red-hot Montreal Canadiens (87 points). Even with the slim mathematical possibility of making the postseason, reality paints a grimmer picture.

Their recent 4-1 loss to the Florida Panthers on Thursday exemplifies their season-long struggle to convert opportunity into momentum. Despite a promising start with Alex DeBrincat netting his 36th goal of the season in the first period, Detroit was outclassed. Florida answered with four straight goals and limited the Wings to just 23 shots on goal, exposing the team’s fragile defense.

“We still have an opportunity, so just go out and win the rest of the games,” DeBrincat told NHL.com.

The optimism is admirable, but the path forward is murky.

DeBrincat: A Lone Beacon in the Offense

While the team has struggled to string wins together, Alex DeBrincat continues to be a consistent offensive force. Now aiming for his third career 40-goal season, the forward remains one of the few bright spots in Detroit’s campaign.

Yet, even his heroics haven’t been enough to lift the team from its losing skid. If the Red Wings miss the playoffs for the ninth straight year, the front office will likely need to assess roster construction and perhaps even leadership.

Tampa Bay Lightning: Focused on Home-Ice Advantage

On the other end of the ice, the Tampa Bay Lightning (45-26-7, 97 points) are not just playing to win — they’re battling for seeding and home-ice advantage.

Their latest outing, a 4-3 overtime loss to the Toronto Maple Leafs, revealed both their vulnerabilities and their resolve. After falling behind 2-0 in the first 3:33, Tampa roared back to tie the game twice. However, Matthew Knies’ hat trick ultimately sealed the Leafs’ win and put them three points ahead of the Lightning.

“An embarrassing first 3 1/2 minutes,” said Lightning coach Jon Cooper. “But for 57 minutes, we leaned on them.”

Tampa’s final regular-season games include crucial matchups against Buffalo, Florida, and the New York Rangers — all with implications for their playoff positioning.

The Bigger Picture: Art Ross Trophy Race

As if the playoff race weren’t dramatic enough, Nikita Kucherov is neck and neck with Nathan MacKinnon in the Art Ross Trophy race. Both stars are tied at 116 points, adding extra flair to each remaining game. Every goal, every assist now has a dual purpose — helping the team and chasing individual glory.

What’s Next?

The Lightning will host the Red Wings Friday night in a game that could solidify Tampa Bay’s playoff seeding — and crush Detroit’s last sliver of hope.

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Conclusion

The stakes couldn’t be higher for the Detroit Red Wings, who are teetering on the edge of playoff elimination. For the Tampa Bay Lightning, every point still counts as they battle for playoff seeding and individual accolades. Whether you’re rooting for a miracle or watching Kucherov chase history, this matchup promises tension, talent, and playoff-style intensity.