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When I first got started in the boxing business, the generally accepted standard for measuring the greatness of a fighter was how thoroughly he was able to dominate the division in which he was the champion.
In fact, I go back far enough to where I was in the Orange Bowl on a night when Alexis Arguello was trying to beat Aaron Pryor to become the first fighter to win a championship in a fourth weight division (in this case, junior welterweight). No one in 80-plus years had yet done it.
In the last 33 years, 19 fighters have accomplished that feat.
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These days, it seems like you’re not considered a great fighter unless you’ve won titles in three, four or five divisions.
The advancement in terms of stature comes less by way of “horizontal” activity than that which is “vertical” (i.e., moving up from one weight class to the next). And we have seen this time and again. There just isn’t as much depth in each weight division as there used to be.
And when the recognition of “world champion” has reached a state of silliness to where not only are there multiple champions in each division but multiple TYPES of world champions (e.g., Gold, Silver, Regular, Super, Franchise, ad nauseum), going on this expedition of belt collection is easier than ever.
Along the way there has developed something of a “Peter Principle” in the sport. You may have heard of this phenomenon; it occurs in the business world when an employee is promoted up the ladder until he (or she, as it were) is in a job where they no longer perform effectively.
As it applies to boxing, a fighter keeps moving up in weight to the point where he is no longer such a force, and is even in a position where he’ll get beaten. In other words, they get to the level where they have bitten off more than they can chew.
For Arguello, who had been a featherweight, junior lightweight and lightweight champion, that came when he was stopped twice by Pryor.
When will that time come for Canelo Alvarez? Will it be this Saturday, against Callum Smith?
The site is the Alamodome in San Antonio. And the fight will be live streamed via DAZN, which has it for no extra charge for its existing subscribers, and as a separate pay-per-view offering for everybody else.
Here are the boxing betting odds on this fight, as they are posted at America’s Bookie:
Canelo Alvarez -649
Callum Smith +484
Over 9.5 Rounds -165
Under 9.5 Rounds +135
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Alvarez (53-1-2, 36 KO’s) got started very early in this game, at the age of 15, in fact. He was a junior welterweight, and, as a growing boy, he’s kept moving up. He pretty much graduated from the welters about a decade ago. And in his last fight, he ventured into the light heavyweight class and stopped Sergey Kovalev in eleven rounds.
The general consensus is that Kovalev was somewhat disinterested and there for the payday. And still, he had things very close at the time of the stoppage.
So now comes Callum Smith, who holds super middleweight title belts from both the World Boxing Council and World Boxing Association (or did we forget to mention the “Diamond” title?), and is undefeated in 27 fights (with 19 knockouts).
This is a guy who didn’t have to eat himself into the super middleweight division; he’s always been in that neighborhood. So you can expect that weigh-ins being conducted as they are now, he could outweigh Alvarez by quite a bit by fight time. He has the frame of a light heavyweight, at the very least, holding a height advantage of six or seven inches (at around 6-foot-3), and a similar reach advantage.
He’s a decidedly better fighter than his brother Liam Smith, who held the WBO title at 154 pounds until Canelo stopped him with a body shot (September 2016).
He does not have the same roster of opponents Canelo sports, and did not look especially good in his last bout against a guy named John Ryder. But I kept my focus away from that fight, and looked at him against better opponents like George Groves.
Smith is probably going to be a better inside fighter than Canelo would expect out of a guy that tall. But considering that Canelo is a capable body puncher, the inside route is not the one Smith wants to take. It would make sense that he’d want to use his jab and reach advantage and keep Alvarez at bay off-balance. And let’s not forget that Smith can “crack.”
Yes, he is a cut above ordinary, that’s for sure. And on top of that, he’s a pretty quick starter, which is something Canelo should be worried about.
But regarding Smith’s physical edge, it would be one thing if he was rather machine-like with that left jab. As Emanuel Steward once told me, the jab is the most important punch to execute, but it’s no good unless a fighter can sustain it.
If Smith could, that would be a game-changer. But that’s not really the case. All too often I have seen him posing in front of an opponent, and that has the effect of mitigating the effect of height and reach. You can’t do that with Alvarez.
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And there are concerns about Smith’s ability to go a hard twelve rounds. Previous foes have sought to take him more rounds to exploit this. And believe me, a jab doesn’t necessarily get sharper as the rounds progress.
So I would expect Canelo to wait him out a little, and get into a pattern of closing the distance. Naturally he doesn’t want to get careless, but he could probably chop away at the tree, so to speak.
Whether he can chop it all the way down is another story. The skill edge for Alvarez is important, obviously, but is it enough to render helpless a guy who is a natural 168-pounder? I have my doubts about that. So while I don’t think Smith is in a position to score a points victory, it would not surprise me to see him go the distance.
So I would lay the -165 to see the fight go over 9.5 rounds.
