Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Picks and Predictions May 13th 2025.

At 9:30 ET, the Oklahoma City Thunder (-484) will host the Denver Nuggets (+368) in a Western Northwest Division matchup. The over/under line for this game is 221 points.

Oklahoma City (-10.5) is 68-14 and leads the Western Conference. Denver (50-32) is 4th in the West and 2nd in the Northwest.

Nuggets vs. Thunder Key Information

• Sport: NBA
• Teams: Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder
• Where: Oklahoma City at Paycom Center
• Date: Tuesday, May 13th
• Betting Odds OKC -10.5, DEN +368 | OKC -484 O/U 221

The Nuggets Can Win If…

Denver’s season record fell to 50-32 after a 92-87 home loss to the Thunder on Sunday. Despite being +7 point underdogs, the Nuggets kept it close, losing by just five. The game’s total score of 179 points was well below the O/U line of 228.5.

Denver looked poised for an upset after a strong 3rd quarter, where they outscored OKC 33-21 and went on a 10-0 run. However, the Thunder rallied in the 4th, outscoring the Nuggets 29-18 to seal the win.

The Nuggets struggled offensively in their 92-87 loss to the Thunder, shooting just 31.2% from the field and 24.4% from three-point range. Nikola Jokić led the way with 27 points and 13 rebounds, hitting 2 threes at 25% efficiency.

Jamal Murray and Christian Braun each contributed 17 points, with Braun shooting 22.2% from deep. Jokić scored 11 points in both the 2nd and 3rd quarters, while Aaron Gordon added 7 of his 15 points in the final period.

Even with a strong defensive effort, the Nuggets couldn’t secure a win against the Thunder, despite holding them to just 92 points on 35% shooting. Denver’s defense was particularly effective in the 1st and 3rd quarters, where they allowed only 17 and 21 points, respectively.

The Nuggets also did well in limiting Oklahoma City’s three-point shooting, giving up just 10 threes on 24% shooting. Denver recorded 9 steals and 3 blocks in the game.

• Across their ten previous road games, Denver has an ATS mark of 5-4-1. Their straight up record in these matchups was 5-5 while averaging 109 points per game.
• Going back to their previous three games as the underdog, Denver has an ATS mark of 2-1 while going 1-2 straight up.
• Over their last three games, the Nuggets have an over/under record of 1-2 and are 2-1 vs. the spread.

The Thunder Can Win If…

The Thunder improved to 68-14 this season with a 92-87 win over the Nuggets on Sunday. Despite being favored by 7 points, they didn’t cover the spread. The game’s total score of 179 points fell well short of the 228.5-point line.

Oklahoma City jumped out to a 17-8 lead after the 1st quarter, but Denver responded with a 10-0 run, taking the score from 52-50 to 60-52. The Thunder turned things around in the 4th quarter, outscoring the Nuggets 29-18 to secure the win.

In their win over the Nuggets, the Thunder’s offense struggled, shooting just 35.6% from the field and 24.4% from three-point range, hitting 10 threes overall. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the way with 25 points, adding 6 rebounds and 6 assists, shooting 42.1% from the floor.

Aaron Wiggins and Cason Wallace each contributed 11 points, with Wallace hitting all 3 of his threes. Wiggins added 3 threes as well, shooting 50% from deep. Gilgeous-Alexander scored 9 points in the 4th quarter, while Wallace added 6 in the final period.

The Thunder’s defense was the key to their victory over the Nuggets, holding Denver to just 87 points on 31% shooting. Oklahoma City set the tone early, allowing only 8 points in the 1st quarter and finishing strong by giving up just 18 points in the 4th.

From beyond the arc, the Thunder limited the Nuggets to 11 made threes on 24% shooting. Oklahoma City also recorded 9 steals and 2 blocks in the game.

• Through their last three home games, Oklahoma City has an ATS record of just 0-3. However, their overall record was 2-1 while averaging 104 points per game.
• Although the Thunder have a strong straight up record in their last three games as the betting favorite, they have not done as well vs the spread going 1-2.
• In their last three games, the Thunder have an over/under record of 2-1 and are 2-1 vs. the spread.

The Lean

We’re calling a win for the Thunder, with a final score of 151-137, and we’re taking them to cover the spread. Our recommendation is to bet on the Thunder at -10.5.

Regarding the over/under, the current line is set at 221, and our model predicts the Nuggets and Thunder to score a combined 288 points. We recommend betting on the over.

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Thunder vs Nuggets Game 5: Depth, Defense, and Determination Define This Series

The Oklahoma City Thunder entered the postseason as one of the league’s most dominant teams—historic point differential, elite youth talent, and perhaps the most electric home-court momentum in the NBA.

But here in the Western Conference Semifinals against the defending champs, nothing has come easy.

With the series tied 2–2 after Oklahoma City’s gritty road win in Game 4, Game 5 in OKC on Tuesday night is shaping up to be a defining battle of identity and resilience.

Whether you’re betting the spread, the total, or props on MVP candidates, you’ll want to stay updated at the NBA Odds Page.

Thunder Thrive Through Turbulence

This isn’t the same Thunder team that breezed through opponents in the regular season. And that’s the point.

Head coach Mark Daigneault made it clear: this series is forging something tougher.

That mental fortitude was on full display in Game 4, when OKC outlasted Denver 92–87 in a hostile Ball Arena. After a week of intense, high-contact basketball, the Thunder are not just surviving—they’re evolving.

Jokic’s Struggles Shift the Narrative

Over the last three games, Nikola Jokic has been held in check like few times before in his playoff career.

• Shooting: Just 33.3% from the field (21-of-63)
• Three-point shooting: 4-of-22 (18.2%)
• Assists: Only 5.0 per game, down from his regular season average of 9.0+

These are not MVP numbers. And for Denver to win this series, they’ll need Jokic to find answers—and fast.

The Thunder defense has made him work for every bucket, collapsing lanes and making passing angles disappear.

SGA Leads with Poise

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has answered the playoff spotlight with poise and production.

• Series Averages: 27.5 points, 47.5% FG
• Free Throws: 9.2 attempts per game
• Games 1 & 2: 33+ points each

While Jokic battles containment, SGA is flourishing—getting to his spots, drawing fouls, and staying efficient. He’s the heartbeat of a Thunder team that doesn’t panic and doesn’t flinch.

Depth is the X-Factor

No team has gotten more out of their entire rotation than Oklahoma City. Through four games:

• 10 players have played every game
• All 10 average 10+ minutes per game
• Bench scoring consistently outpaces Denver

Meanwhile, the Nuggets are relying on a tight seven-man rotation, with Russell Westbrook being the only bench player to log meaningful minutes in Game 4.

That may be catching up to them. David Adelman, Denver’s interim coach, hinted at expanding the rotation:

Fatigue matters. Especially against a team like OKC that pushes pace, pressures the rim, and forces second efforts every possession.

Game 5 Matchup Breakdown

The stats back the eye test: OKC has controlled the pace and forced Denver into tougher shots, particularly in second halves.

Keys to Game 5

Can Jokic Break Free?

The Nuggets’ offense begins and ends with Jokic. If he can’t draw help defenders or initiate ball movement from the post, Denver becomes one-dimensional.

Look for early touches and quicker decisions from the big man to avoid OKC’s collapsing schemes.

Thunder’s Bench Contribution

Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, and Isaiah Joe have all had moments. If two of them can knock down early shots, it shifts defensive pressure off SGA and opens up the offense.

Home Court Energy

OKC fans are notorious for creating chaos in postseason moments. Game 5 in a tied series could see Paycom Center at full volume.

Betting Preview & Picks

Prediction:

Thunder 103, Nuggets 98

SGA controls the tempo, Jokic struggles continue, and OKC takes a pivotal 3–2 lead heading back to Denver.

Best Bets:

• Thunder -3.5 (spread)
• Under 209.5 total points
• SGA Over 26.5 points
• Jokic Under 7.5 assists

Track line movement and prop adjustments live on the NBA Picks Page.

FAQs

Is Jokic injured?
No. But he’s being defended as well as anyone has defended him in two seasons.

Who has home court in Game 5?
Oklahoma City. Game 5 returns to Paycom Center where OKC won the first two games.

What time is tip-off for Game 5?
Tuesday night, 8:30 PM ET.

Where can I find series odds and props?
Visit our NBA Odds Page for updates.

Final Thoughts: The Series Has Changed

The series that once seemed like a measuring stick for Oklahoma City has become something bigger: a referendum on growth.

The Thunder aren’t just talented—they’re tough. They’re deep. And they’re learning how to win close, ugly playoff games.

Denver’s championship pedigree can’t be ignored, but unless Jokic finds a way to reassert his dominance, OKC might just send the champs packing.

Follow all Game 5 coverage, odds updates, and player props at ScoresAndStats NBA.