UFC on ESPN+: 114 Odds and Predictions

There’s no way UFC Fight Night 256 can live up to what we just enjoyed at UFC 315, but this is a card that does seem up to the task of at least giving it a go.

Also known as, UFC on ESPN+ 114, this MMA show has a rock solid main event with Gilbert Burns taking on the undefeated Michael Morales, while the likes of Paul Craig and Mairon Santos are also featured in this event.

This is a pretty strong card from top to bottom, but it’s always made stronger if you can cash in on some winning UFC picks. The plan is to help you do just that, so join me as I break down the latest UFC Fight Night 256 odds and come away with some winning predictions.

Where To Watch UFC Fight Night 256?

UFC Fight Night 256 (aka UFC on ESPN+ 114) can be viewed on ESPN+.

When Is UFC on ESP+ 114?

The Prelims for this event fire off at 3:00 pm EST on Saturday, May 17th, while the main card follows at 6:00 pm EST.

Where Is UFC Fight Night 256?

If you want to attend UFC Fight Night 256 live, just head to Las Vegas, Nevada. UFC on ESPN+ will go live at the UFC APEX on Saturday afternoon.

UFC Fight Night 256 Odds

Check out the latest UFC on ESPN+ 114 odds for the Main Card, courtesy of the top sports betting sites: 

This main card isn’t quite as appealing as what we saw at UFC 315, as we have two massive favorites and only two fights that feel like toss-ups.

Michael Morales is a huge -950 betting favorite in the main event. This price is insane and not very useful for bettors, but betting on Gilbert Burns to stage the upset is understandably appealing.

There is still some quality value on the main card, of course. You can trust in my UFC Fight Night 256 predictions above, or read on for further analysis. Need even more help? Get some extra guidance from the best handicappers online!

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UFC on ESPN+ 114 Predictions For The Main Card

The main card for UFC Fight Night 256 starts at 6:00 pm EST on ESPN+.

Michael Morales (-950) vs. Gilbert Burns (+550)

This one is an easy call for me. Michael Morales (17-0) has yet to lose a professional MMA fight, and he has done nasty work in the UFC, taking out solid names such as Jake Matthews, Max Griffin, and most recently, Neil Magny.

Gilbert Burns is in theory the stiffest test Morales has faced, but Burns is now 38 years of age and has seen his form slip in three consecutive losses. He still has a well-rounded game and is capable of delivering as a wild +550 underdog, but I just don’t see it happening.

Morales is easier to trust in terms of finishing ability (12 KOs) at this point, plus he is 13 years younger with a whopping eight-inch reach edge. Morales grades out as the more impactful striker, too.

Someone will derail Morales at some point, but I doubt it will be Burns.

Bet: Michael Morales (-950)

Rodolfo Bellato (-500) vs. Paul Craig (+350)

The UFC Fight Night main card is certainly one where we will feel a bit compelled to back big-name underdogs. Burns is one of them, and Paul Craig (17-9-1) is another. He’s 37 years old now and has the submission chops to get the job done, but he’s been weak during a 1-5 slide over his last six bouts.

Rodolfo Bellato (12-2-1) is the far more dangerous striker (6.28 significant strikes landed per minute) and has a mild reach advantage, while he’s also eight years younger. At this point he is simply the better athlete, more explosive, and more aggressive.

I will say that Bellato has been KO’d twice before, while Jimmy Crute had him on the ground in a bad spot in his last match, which ended up being a Draw. That said, Bellato is the far easier guy to trust here, and I like his upside here in terms of finishing ability.

Bet: Rodolfo Bellato (-500)

Mairon Santos (-135) vs. Sodiq Yusuff (+115)

I was all over Mairon Santos (15-1) in his last fight, and he did not disappoint in a Decision win over Francis Marshall. He moved to 2-0 under the UFC banner and will now be a slight favorite when he takes on Sodiq Yusuff this weekend.

Santos has nice finishing ability (8 KOs), but is admittedly a bit one-dimensional and did get KO’d by Dan Argueta back in 2022. He’s been red hot since that loss, however, and he’ll have a mild reach edge than Yusuff, who is seven years older.

Yusuff (13-4) does come in as the superior striker in terms of impact and accuracy, but the gap isn’t very wide. It is also worth noting that while he does have solid finishing ability (6 KOs), he also isn’t very versatile and has regressed lately with consecutive defeats.

I don’t think losses to Edson Barboza or Diego Lopes are damaging, but he hasn’t upped his game against tougher competition. Due to that, I think the older fighter struggles to keep up with Santos. I think this one can go the distance, but I’d still lean toward a Santos win, even if he can’t win via stoppage.

Bet: Mairon Santos (-135)

Nursulton Ruziboev (-290) vs. Dustin Stoltzfus (+235)

The experience edge definitely lies with Nursulton Ruziboev (35-9-2), while age isn’t really a factor – nor is reach. Ruziboev is the favorite to win thanks to a massive height advantage and his insane finishing ability.

Not only is Ruziboev absurdly versatile and skilled, but he flat out knows how to take dudes out. Of his 35 victories, a ridiculous 33 have come early (13 KOs, 20 submissions). He has nine career losses, but just one of those has come since 2019, and it was a Decision loss with the explosive Joaquin Buckley.

Dustin Stoltzfus (16-6) could offer interesting betting value here, of course. He did KO Marc-Andre Barriault in his last fight, and both of his last two wins have come via stoppage. His overall form has been a bit suspect, though, and he’s been finished four times in his career.

I don’t think Stoltzfus is a bad underdog try, but Ruziboev has the edge in experience, versatility, height, and finishing ability. He’s an easy call for me, and judging off his history, I’d gladly be hammering an inside the distance bet in his favor.

Bet: Nursulton Ruziboev (-290)

Melquizael Costa (-200) vs. Julian Erosa (+170)

The last fight of the UFC Fight Night 256 main card pits Melquizael Costa (23-7) against Julian Erosa. Costa is the favorite to win, as he is seven years younger, has superior striking accuracy, and boasts solid takedown offense.

Costa has been in good form, winning three straight and four of his last five. He’s also quite versatile, with 15 finishes in his career. He’s been a bit vulnerable to finishes himself, though, while he loses 3.5 inches in reach to his opponent.

That isn’t nothing against someone like Julian Erosa (31-12), who has a little more experience and almost doubles Costa in significant strikes landed per minute (6.40). He also brings good takedown offense to the table and has been in strong form, winning each of his last three fights.

Erosa has been turning back the clock, as he TKO’d Darren Elkins in his last bout and has won via stoppage in each of his last three matches. He is definitely vulnerable to KOs (7!), but he is highly versatile and has 25 career finishes.

I like most of the favorites on this main card, but this is one spot where I love rolling with the underdog. I think Erosa is a great bet to add to his pile of finishes this weekend.

Bet: Julian Erosa (+170)

UFC on ESPN+ 114 Preliminary Card Odds

Check out the latest UFC Fight Night 256 odds for the Preliminary Card.

The pricing for the UFC on ESPN+ 114 Prelims is a little better than the main card. There is no fighter priced at an absurd -950, at least.

We also get a few fights that are projected to be super close. I wouldn’t be shocked if the fight of the night ended up stemming from this part of the card. 

Denise Gomes and Yadier Del Valle profile as safe picks, but it could get tricky after that. Lean on my UFC Fight Night predictions above, or read on for further reasoning behind each bet.

UFC Fight Night 256 Predictions For The Preliminary Card

The UFC on ESPN+ 114 Prelims will roll out at 3:00 pm EST on ESPN+.

Matheus Camilo (-180) vs. Gabe Green (+150)

This is a tightly priced matchup, with Matheus Camilo (9-2) coming in as a slight favorite to get the win. He’s been on fire, with wins in each of his six fights. He has six career finishes to his name, but he’s also been submitted twice and this will be his UFC debut.

Gabe Green has a worse record at 11-5 and looks like a pretty easy test for Camilo in his first fight in the UFC. That said, Green’s style directly contradicts Camilo’s strengths, as he has six career submissions to his name.

Green lost to Bryan Battle via KO in his last match, and has dropped two in a row. He has been a bit vulnerable to knockouts (3) in his career, while the jump to the UFC hasn’t gone as planned (2-3 in five fights). I do think Green is a threat to score the upset via submission, but Camilo is gaining experience and he’s just as likely to control this fight to the point of Green’s fourth career KO defeat.

This one is admittedly a close call, but I side with the surging Camilo and think he gets a win in his first taste of UFC action.

Bet: Matheus Camilo (-180)

Thiago Moises (-115) vs. Jared Gordon (-105)

This is the closest call of UFC Fight Night 256, with Thiago Moises (19-8) being the slightest of favorites. He is six years younger than his opponent and has a 2.5-inch reach edge, however, so the math checks out.

Moises has been tough to trust of late, going just 2-2 over his last four fights. He did edge out Trey Ogden in a Decision win in his last bout, while his only reach losses via stoppage have come against beasts in Benoit St. Denis and Jose Aldo.

Jared Gordon (20-7) averages way more significant strikes landed per minute (5.75 to 2.50) and has superior takedown offense, but his form hasn’t been much better. He’s gone just 2-2-1 over his last five fights, while he isn’t quite as versatile as his opponent.

Gordon has also been KO’d four times in his career and has been finished five times overall. His losses aren’t bad ones – Paddy Pimblett being one – but I find myself trusting Moises slightly more.

Bet: Thiago Moises (-115)

Luana Santos (-155) vs. Tainara Lisboa (+130)

There are just three fights on this card featuring women, but we should have a banger when Luana Santos (8-2) takes on Tainara Lisboa (7-2). Neither side has a reach or height advantage, but the favored Santos is nine years younger and doubles Lisboa (4.28 to 2.05) in significant strikes landed per minute.

Santos will look to take this fight to the floor (4 submissions), and she’s so far exhibited terrific defense and toughness (0 losses via stoppage). There’s a first time for everything, however, as Lisboa has so far proven to be the more versatile fighter, and she’s just as capable on the mat.

In fact, Lisboa has superior takedown offense between the two, while she is in fantastic form as a winner of five straight matches. This one is very close, but Lisboa’s versatility wins out, and I like her +130 price tag.

Bet: Tainara Lisboa (+130)

Denise Gomes (-600) vs. Elise Reed (+400)

This fight might not be as competitive, as Denise Gomes (10-3) is a huge favorite. She is seven years younger than her opponent, while she also lands more significant strikes per minute, and is more aggressive with her takedowns.

Reed is the more accurate striker, but her fists have only been responsible for two KOs and she’s shown no ability to finish fights via submission. In turn, she’s been stopped early four times in her career, and she’s facing someone who is capable of grinding her to a pulp.

Gomes is the easy call here. She lacks versatility, but she has six career knockouts to her name and has shown out against solid competition – namely a win over Karolina Kowalkiewicz. She’s a good bet to keep it rolling this weekend.

Bet: Denise Gomes (-600)

Hyunsung Park (-160) vs. Carlos Hernandez (+135)

This one is much tougher to decide, as Hyunsung Park is a light favorite when he takes on Carlos Hernandez. Park (9-0) has a perfect record, and also grades out as the more impactful striker in this one.

That said these fighters are pretty evenly matched. Hernandez is two years older, but nobody has a clear height or reach edge, and their stats don’t reveal any major advantages. 

While that may be true, Park has proven to be highly versatile, dynamic, and explosive. He’s been very good in the UFC, earning a finish in four victories. All of his wins but one have ended the fight early, too.

Hernandez (10-4) hasn’t been nearly as dominant. He’s shown zero KO ability, and he’s just 2-3 over his last five bouts. He’s also been finished twice already in his limited professional career.

There’s always a chance Hernandez shocks Park with a submission, but Park’s well-rounded skill-set and dominance give him a huge edge. All things told, he is an insane steal at his -160 price tag.

Bet: Hyunsung Park (-160)

Tecia Pennington (-390) vs. Luana Pinheiro (+290)

We get a fairly lopsided affair in this female fight featuring Luana Pinheiro (11-4) and Tecia Pennington (14-7). Pennington is 35 and showing signs of decline, going 1-2 over her last two bouts.

Of course, she’s still hanging in there against tough opponents. She actually edged out Carla Esparza via Decision in her last fight, and went the distance against both Tabatha Ricci and MacKenzie Dern in losses.

Pennington is a solid fighter, but she offers next to zero finishing ability. She also loses an inch in height and two inches in reach when facing Pinheiro, who looks to be far more aggressive when it comes to taking the fight to the floor.

Pinheiro has not gotten it done lately, as she’s dropped three fights in a row. However, she was off to a scorching hot 11-1 start, and losses to Amanda Ribas, Angela Hill, and Gillian Robertson are nothing to be ashamed of.

The end is coming for Pennington sooner rather than later, but she’s still the better fighter in this one. She isn’t a good bet to win by stoppage, but she’s also tough as nails and is going to inflict more damage. 

Bet: Tecia Pennington (-390)

Yadier Del Valle (-430) vs. Connor Matthews (+330)

The last fight is another fairly easy one to call, as Yadier Del Valle (8-0) looks to stay perfect when he battles Connor Matthews (7-3). Matthews is four years older and has a little more experience, but is a huge underdog due to inferior striking.

Del Valle is averaging an absurd 8.33 significant strikes landed per minute with 71% striking accuracy so far in the UFC, but it’s worth wondering if an insane 10-inch reach edge helps Matthews keep him at bay.

This will be Del Valle’s first true UFC match, and he is firmly expected to take care of business. Matthews has dropped his last two matches and has been finished twice already in his career. Don’t be shocked if those trends continue this weekend.

Bet: Yadier Del Valle (-430)

The Best UFC Fight Night Picks

The following is our best UFC Fight Night picks for this weekend’s event:

• Mairon Santos (-135)
• Thiago Moises (-115)
• Hyunsung Park (-160)
• Julian Erosa (+170)

I don’t see much of a point in throwing money at the big favorites. Michael Morales is a great bet to stay undefeated, but you will want to hunt down a prop bet involving him, rather than bet hard on his -950 moneyline.

Luckily, several fights offer value on both sides. I think Mairon Santos is the best pick of the card. He does have a tough matchup in front of him against Sodiq Yusuff, but Santos is a monster and I expect him to get the job done.

I really like Hyunsung Park to get the win. He’s the more talented fighter in his clash with Carlos Hernandez and he has been on a tear so far in the UFC.

Moises is another solid value and a good bet to win, while Erosa is too good of a value to pass up. I don’t feel obligated to target underdogs unless I feel strongly about them, but I definitely like Erosa’s chances at upsetting Melquizael Costa this weekend.

These are my three preferred UFC Fight Night picks, but I’d still suggest targeting wagers individually, and avoiding parlays.

UFC Fight Night 256 Card

Check out the updated UFC Fight Night fight card: