Golf’s final major of the year is here, and The Open Championship returns to Royal Portrush with a stacked field, fun storylines, and loads of betting value. Whether you’re chasing longshot value or banking on a favorite, the oddsboards for this week’s event offer something for every kind of bettor. You don’t even have to know a damn thing about golf to make some money on The Open. What more could you want?

If you’re looking to bet on golf this week, this is a great place to start. You’ll also want to check out our Golf Picks section and our complete guide to betting on golf. For a deeper preview of the tournament itself, head over to our full Open Championship breakdown.

PGA Golf Picks This Week

Want more sharp action? Hit up the Top Handicappers for more weekly golf bets that don’t miss the cut.

Slice and Cut Your Way
To Winning Golf Picks

With This Elite
Handicapping Membership

Get Free Trial

Golf Expert Picks For This Week

Let’s break down our top PGA Tour picks from the best sports betting sites:

Top 5 Finish

• Scottie Scheffler (+110)
• Rory McIlroy (+175)
• Jon Rahm (+260)
• Bryson DeChambeau (+450)
• Tommy Fleetwood (+550)
• Ludvig Aberg (+600)
• Viktor Hovland (+650)
• Tyrrell Hatton (+650)

If Rory McIlroy is going to win The Open Championship – and that’s the prediction I’ve already made – then backing him to finish top 5 at +175 is the smart, safer way to capitalize on his form. This isn’t just about course history or narrative. Rory is playing arguably the best all-around golf of anyone not named Scottie Scheffler. Since March, he’s won twice (Masters, THE PLAYERS), finished T-2 at the Scottish Open, and added another top 5 at the Houston Open. He’s thriving under pressure, and unlike 2019’s meltdown at Portrush, this year he enters with the confidence of a man who’s already made history in 2025.

His statistical profile is rock-solid. McIlroy ranks 2nd in SG: Total, 4th in SG: Putting, and 5th in SG: Off-the-Tee for the season. That’s not just good, that’s the kind of balance that wins majors. He’s gained 0.858 strokes total per round over his last five events and has been especially sharp on the greens, gaining 0.706 strokes putting in that same stretch. His putting stats also include a 24.52% break rate and a Putts Per Round average of 28.43, which puts him among the Tour’s best. In Open conditions – where converting 8- to 12-footers is often the difference – those stats matter more than usual.

What about Portrush itself? While he missed the cut here in 2019, that was a different Rory. Back then, he was carrying the weight of a nation and playing tentative golf from the opening tee shot. This time, he returns as a Masters champion with the career Grand Slam complete, the pressure off his shoulders, and form that’s sharper than it was back then. His T-3 at The Open in 2022 and T-6 in 2023 show he’s figured out the tournament’s rhythm. And now, with the crowd still behind him and the nerves presumably steadier, a top-5 finish feels more like a baseline than a ceiling.

I know the +175 price isn’t glamorous, but the floor here is incredibly high. If you’re betting him to win outright, this is the hedge that pays if he falls just short. And based on everything we’ve seen this season – based on the stats – it’s hard to envision a Sunday leaderboard without his name on it.

Bet: Rory McIlroy (+175)

Group B Winner

• Tommy Fleetwood (+260)
• Collin Morikawa (+320)
• Tyrrell Hatton (+320)
• Viktor Hovland (+360)
• Joaquin Niemann (+450)

The pick to win Group B is Tommy Fleetwood at +260, thanks to his current form, Open experience, and short-game reliability. Fleetwood has finished top 5 three times in his last 10 starts, including a T-2 at the Travelers and T-4 at Charles Schwab. He’s gained strokes in every category over his last five events and ranks 4th in SG: Total this season. His +0.300 SG: Putting and +0.571 SG: Approach numbers give him the edge in a group where consistency is hard to find. I feel like I discuss Fleetwood being a great betting option every single week, yet he’s still hunting that first PGA Tour victory. Fortunately, he doesn’t have to win the tournament to win this bet.

Fleetwood’s Open Championship history also stands out. He finished T-4 at Portrush in 2022 and has two top-10s in his last four appearances at this major. His ability to grind through difficult conditions and avoid big numbers gives him an edge in a format where one poor round can tank your group odds. He’s also shown a reliable touch around the greens, gaining +0.571 SG: Around-the-Green, and is clearly trending in the right direction.

That said, Tyrrell Hatton is a very strong contender in this group. He finished T-4 at the U.S. Open and has averaged +0.960 SG: Total over his last five events. His iron play is stellar, and he ranks 6th on Tour in SG: Approach, which makes him a threat anytime precision is rewarded. The concern lies in his putting. He’s losing 0.220 strokes per round on the greens and has missed the cut in three of his last four Open Championships, including at Portrush. With links golf, any stray shot can doom you, and Hatton’s temper could pay an unfortunate role if things go awry.

In a group that also includes Viktor Hovland and Collin Morikawa, both of whom have been inconsistent lately, Fleetwood offers the most reliable profile. He’s sharp with his irons, putting well, and has contended on this exact course before. At +260, he’s the safest and most value-packed play to emerge from Group B.

Bet: Tommy Fleetwood (+260)

Two Chances to Win

• Scottie Scheffler or Rory McIlroy (+240)
• Scottie Scheffler or Jon Rahm (+300)
• Rory McIlroy or Jon Rahm (+400)
• Rory McIlroy or Tommy Fleetwood (+550)
• Jon Rahm or Bryson DeChambeau (+750)
• Bryson DeChambeau or Xander Schauffele (+1100)

The double-chance bet on Rory McIlroy or Tommy Fleetwood to win The Open Championship at +550 looks like an excellent value based on strokes gained metrics and past performance at this very event. Both players enter Royal Portrush with favorable trends and course history that support a deep run, if not an outright win.

I’ve already broken down what makes McIlroy such a compelling bet, and it certainly doesn’t hurt that this is essentially a home game for him in his native country. The pressure that comes with those expectations got to him back in 2019, but, as mentioned, I think he’s in a much better headspace these days thanks to all that he’s accomplished.

Fleetwood, meanwhile, has a terrific Open track record. He was T-4 at this event in 2022 and also notched a T-10 last year, giving him two top-10s in his last four Open appearances. He’s trending in the right direction with a T-2 at Travelers and T-4 at the Charles Schwab, and has gained strokes in every major category over his last five events. He’s historically much more comfortable playing in Europe, and I think he’s a legitimate threat not only to win his first PGA event, but his first major, this week.

With McIlroy’s ceiling and Fleetwood’s Open pedigree, this +550 two-player ticket covers two of the most complete and course-fit contenders in the field. It also shields you against one bad break, poor round, or fluky missed cut, increasing your margin for error. If either man is holding the Claret Jug on Sunday, you’re in the green.

Bet: Rory McIlroy or Tommy Fleetwood (+550)

First Round Leader

• Scottie Scheffler (+1600)
• Rory McIlroy (+2000)
• Jon Rahm (+2500)
• Bryson DeChambeau (+3000)
• Ludvig Aberg (+3500)
• Xander Schauffele (+3500)
• Viktor Hovland (+3500)
• Shane Lowry (+4000)
• Tyrrell Hatton (+4000)
• Tommy Fleetwood (+4500)

At +3000, Bryson DeChambeau to be the first-round leader at The Open is a bet teeming with upside. As a LIV golfer, he doesn’t show up in PGA Tour rankings, but his advanced stats from recent majors and public models still tell a compelling story. Over his last five tracked events, Bryson has averaged 0.856 SG: Off-the-Tee and 1.775 SG: Total, numbers that would put him among the elite in any field. His 325.9-yard driving average is also a massive asset at Royal Portrush if Thursday conditions favor power.

Bryson has also shown the ability to go low early in majors. In his last three major appearances, he’s carded opening rounds of 71 (PGA), 69 (Masters), and 73 (U.S. Open), and his best finish at The Open came in 2022 when he opened with a 69 and 74. His putter has quietly improved, too, gaining 0.299 SG: Putting over his last five events, and his 23.89% birdie rate gives him explosive scoring potential if he finds rhythm early.

What makes Bryson such a dangerous first-round candidate is his momentum. He’s finished in the top five four times over his last ten starts and was in contention at both the PGA Championship (T-2) and the Masters (T-5). He may not grind over 72 holes the way some others do, but few players are better suited for a hot start with adrenaline pumping.

At 30-1, you’re backing one of the most physically dominant and mentally aggressive players in the world to blitz the course before conditions toughen. Given his distance, form, and streaky putting, Bryson offers real boom-or-bust value as a first-round leader dart.

Bet: Bryson DeChambeau (+3000)

Group D Winner

• Sepp Straka (+260)
• Russell Henley (+300)
• Sam Burns (+360)
• Jordan Spieth (+360)
• Brooks Koepka (+400)

Jordan Spieth may not be the betting favorite in Group D, but there’s a solid case to be made for backing him to come out on top. Spieth has shown flashes of brilliance this season, particularly at the CJ CUP Byron Nelson, where he posted a blistering 19-under and finished fourth. That performance reminded us of his upside, and it’s encouraging to see he’s averaged 1.018 Strokes Gained: Total over his last five tournaments. That’s better than anyone else in this group.

His recent Open Championship history is also worth noting. Spieth finished runner-up at this event in 2021 after going 65-67 on the weekend and has consistently made the cut here in recent years. His track record on links-style courses and ability to scramble when things get tough always make him a threat at The Open, even when his form is inconsistent. His off-the-tee game is solid (ranking 34th in SG: OTT), and his iron play ranks 46th on the Tour, both of which will be important at Royal Portrush.

Yes, the putting has been a concern – his -0.047 average in SG: Putting over the past five events is downright poor – but Spieth is the type of player who can catch fire on the greens when he’s comfortable. He’s also logged five top-20 finishes over his last 10 starts, including multiple solid showings in strong fields.

Group D is loaded with volatility: Koepka and Burns are boom-or-bust types, and Sepp Straka is a deserving favorite but hasn’t flashed consistent upside lately. Spieth offers a more balanced profile, past Open pedigree, and perhaps the highest ceiling in the group if the flatstick cooperates. At +360, the value is there for Spieth to steal Group D.

Bet: Jordan Spieth (+360)

Top Finish Parlay

• Scottie Scheffler Top 5, Jon Rahm Top 10, Ludvig Aberg Top 20 (+850)
• Bryson DeChambeau Top 5, Justin Thomas Top 10, Cameron Young Top 20 (+1600)
• Rory McIlroy Top 5, Xander Schauffele Top 10, Shane Lowry Top 20 (+1800)
• Scottie Scheffler Top 5, Xander Schauffele Top 10, Justin Thomas Top 20 (+2000)
• Jon Rahm Top 5, Bryson DeChambeau Top 10, Tommy Fleetwood Top 20 (+2000)
• Scottie Scheffler Top 5, Xander Schauffele Top 10, Brian Harman Top 20 (+2800)

A parlay of Rahm top 5, DeChambeau top 10, and Fleetwood top 20 at +2000 offers serious upside for three players who all bring major championship pedigree and recent strong form into Royal Portrush. The risk is real – it’s a three-leg parlay in a volatile event, after all – but the case for each leg is compelling.

Start with Jon Rahm, who enters The Open with three straight top-20s in majors: T-7 at the U.S. Open, T-8 at the PGA, and T-14 at the Masters. He’s also gone T-7 and T-2 in his last two Open Championships. Statistically, he’s dialed in: 1.004 SG: Off-the-Tee and 1.553 SG: Approach are outstanding metrics, and he’s gaining nearly 1.6 total strokes per round over his last five events. Royal Portrush rewards good ball striking, and Rahm ranks among the world’s best in that department.

DeChambeau continues to dominate in the eye test. He finished T-2 and T-5 in his last two majors and led the U.S. Open in SG: Off-the-Tee before fading late. His strokes gained metrics over his last five starts (0.856 OTT, 0.299 Putting, 1.775 Total) back up the performance. While his aggressive style brings volatility, his power and recent form make a top-10 finish well within reach.

Finally, Fleetwood may be the safest piece of this bet. He’s posted top-10s in three of his last 10 starts and ranks 4th on the PGA Tour in Total Strokes Gained (1.612 last five starts). He’s also logged finishes of T-4 and T-10 in his past two Open appearances at Royal Portrush. Even with a recent missed cut, his consistency and comfort on links tracks make him a strong top-20 candidate.

Altogether, this parlay hinges on upside (Bryson), elite form (Rahm), and reliability (Fleetwood). At 20/1, you’re getting strong value for three guys who could all realistically be on the Sunday leaderboard.

Bet: Jon Rahm Top 5, Bryson DeChambeau Top 10, Tommy Fleetwood Top 20 (+2000)