Golf Picks This Week 2026: FedEx St. Jude Best Bets

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Golf Picks This Week move into the FedExCup Playoffs for the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind in Memphis. The tournament begins Thursday, August 13, with 69 golfers competing across four guaranteed rounds and only the top 50 in the FedExCup standings advancing to the BMW Championship.

Scottie Scheffler enters as the clear favorite around +500, followed by Rory McIlroy at +1200. Xander Schauffele, Tommy Fleetwood, Cameron Young, Hideki Matsuyama, Sam Burns and Collin Morikawa form a deep second tier loaded with legitimate championship possibilities.

Our best golf bet this week comes from that second tier. Matsuyama offers attractive outright value around +2200 after winning at TPC Southwind in 2024. His combination of elite approach play, proven course history and a price more than four times larger than Scheffler’s makes him our preferred FedEx St. Jude Championship winner pick.

Tom Kim supplies one of the best mid-board values after another top-five finish at the Wyndham Championship, while Tommy Fleetwood provides our preferred placement bet. Sungjae Im completes the main betting card as a high-upside longshot with both improving form and significant FedExCup motivation.

Golf Picks This Week 2026 Update

The PGA Tour regular season is over, which changes the golf betting environment significantly. The FedEx St. Jude Championship is the first of three FedExCup Playoff events and contains only players who finished inside the top 70 during the regular season.

Daniel Berger withdrew after qualifying for the event, reducing the active field to 69 golfers. There is no traditional Friday cut, so every player remaining in the field is scheduled to play all four rounds.

That format makes placement markets especially interesting. Golfers cannot lose a top-20 or top-10 ticket by missing the cut after two rounds, while players struggling early still have an entire weekend to recover.

The championship market remains more demanding. Scheffler is priced as an unusually short favorite for golf, which creates opportunities farther down the odds board for bettors willing to accept more variance.

FedEx St. Jude Championship Odds

Scheffler sits alone at the top of the FedEx St. Jude Championship odds around +500. That number implies a substantial probability of victory for a golfer competing against 68 other elite players.

McIlroy is the only other golfer shorter than +1500. He returns around +1200, followed by Schauffele near +1800 and Fleetwood around +2000.

The +2200 to +2500 range may contain the most interesting combination of quality and return. Matsuyama, Young, Burns, Morikawa, Ludvig Aberg and Matt Fitzpatrick are all legitimate contenders without carrying Scheffler’s extreme favorite price.

Golf odds can move quickly before Round 1, particularly as sportsbooks react to betting volume and final tee-time information. Bettors should compare current prices rather than assuming an early-week number remains available.

2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship Information

The FedEx St. Jude Championship takes place from August 13 through August 16 at TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee.

The course plays as a par 70 at approximately 7,288 yards. The tournament carries a $20 million purse, with $3.6 million available to the champion.

The winner also receives 750 FedExCup points. Those points carry additional importance because the field is reduced from the current 69 players to the top 50 in the standings after Sunday.

Justin Rose returns as the defending champion after defeating J.J. Spaun in a playoff last season. Matsuyama won the tournament in 2024 at 17-under.

TPC Southwind Betting Breakdown

TPC Southwind is less about overpowering the golf course and more about controlling position from tee to green. Accurate approach shots become especially valuable because the greens are relatively small and missed targets can create difficult recovery situations.

The Bermuda rough also increases the penalty for inaccurate drives. Golfers who consistently find favorable sections of the fairway can attack pins, while poor drives create unpredictable lies and more conservative approach shots.

Water is another major part of the handicap. Players must repeatedly decide whether an aggressive line provides enough reward to justify the potential penalty, particularly during Sunday’s final round.

Because TPC Southwind plays as a par 70, par-4 performance carries more weight than it does on courses containing four par 5s. Strong iron players who consistently create birdie opportunities from the fairway receive an immediate advantage.

The no-cut format changes strategy as well. A golfer who opens with a poor round does not need to play defensively on Friday simply to survive. Every player receives 72 holes, creating additional comeback potential in placement and head-to-head markets.

Hideki Matsuyama FedEx St. Jude Winner Pick

Matsuyama is our best golf bet this week at +2200 or better.

The most important factor is proven winning performance at TPC Southwind. Matsuyama captured the 2024 FedEx St. Jude Championship at 17-under, finishing two strokes ahead after surviving a difficult back-nine stretch on Sunday.

That victory demonstrated the exact skill set required this week. Matsuyama can gain significant strokes with his irons while remaining comfortable when a tournament becomes more demanding than a typical birdie-heavy PGA Tour event.

His short game also provides important protection around Southwind’s smaller greens. Even excellent ball strikers will miss putting surfaces during the week, making recovery ability more valuable than it was at Sedgefield.

The price separates him from Scheffler. Matsuyama does not need to be considered more likely to win than the world No. 1 for +2200 to offer better betting value than +500.

A four-round tournament remains highly volatile. Matsuyama’s price compensates bettors for that uncertainty while attaching the ticket to a golfer with a proven championship path at the exact venue.

Best Golf Bet: Hideki Matsuyama to win the FedEx St. Jude Championship at +2200 or better.

Tom Kim FedEx St. Jude Value Pick

Tom Kim is our preferred mid-board value at +5000 or better.

Kim nearly converted last week’s ScoresAndStats outright selection at the Wyndham Championship before finishing tied for fifth. He entered Sunday only one stroke behind the leaders and remained in contention throughout the weekend.

That result continued an impressive stretch that also includes a victory at the Genesis Scottish Open. His current form is much stronger than a price beyond 50-1 normally suggests.

More importantly, the Southwind setup fits the strongest area of his game. Kim has been producing elite approach play and does not need a course where driving distance is the primary separator.

His first objective remains finding enough fairways to attack the smaller greens. If he carries his recent iron performance from Greensboro into Memphis, he should create enough birdie chances to contend again.

Kim should be treated as a smaller outright position rather than the largest wager on the card because he still needs to defeat a field containing nearly every elite PGA Tour golfer.

Best Value Pick: Tom Kim to win at +5000 or better.

Tommy Fleetwood Top-20 Pick

Fleetwood is the preferred placement selection rather than another outright bet.

His current form has been remarkably consistent, and his controlled tee-to-green game fits TPC Southwind better than venues that heavily reward raw driving distance.

The no-cut format strengthens the top-20 position. Fleetwood receives all four rounds even if Thursday begins poorly, giving a consistent golfer additional time to work his way back toward the upper portion of the leaderboard.

His outright price near +2000 is reasonable but demands a victory. The top-20 market allows Fleetwood to produce another strong playoff performance without requiring him to defeat Scheffler, McIlroy and the entire field.

A price around -125 remains playable. Anything closer to even money would improve the value considerably.

Best Placement Bet: Tommy Fleetwood Top 20 at -125 or better.

Sungjae Im Longshot Pick at +9000

Sungjae Im is our preferred FedEx St. Jude Championship longshot at +9000 or better.

Im enters Memphis with improving form after another top-15 finish at the Wyndham Championship. He has now produced multiple strong results during the final stretch of the regular season.

TPC Southwind also gives him a more favorable setup than many courses where his lack of elite distance can become a disadvantage. Controlled ball striking, Bermuda putting and consistent scoring are more important here.

The FedExCup situation adds another layer. Im begins the week just outside the top 50 and needs to gain ground to qualify for the BMW Championship.

That does not automatically create betting value, but it can influence strategy on Sunday. A golfer sitting 20th in the tournament but outside the projected top 50 may need to attack pins rather than protect a safe finish.

The +9000 price makes Im suitable as a small longshot position rather than a primary wager.

Best Longshot: Sungjae Im to win at +9000 or better.

Collin Morikawa FedEx St. Jude Pick

Morikawa is the secondary outright selection at approximately +2500.

TPC Southwind’s emphasis on approach accuracy immediately places Morikawa among the strongest theoretical course fits. Few golfers in the field can consistently produce comparable iron play when their swing is functioning at its best.

His driving accuracy provides another advantage. Southwind does not require players to overpower the golf course, reducing the advantage held by longer but less accurate competitors.

The putter remains the major question, as it often is with Morikawa. He does not need to lead the field on the greens, but he must convert enough opportunities to keep pace with a winning score likely to move well into double digits under par.

At +2500, the price is large enough to compensate for that weakness while still providing exposure to one of the best ball strikers in the tournament.

Secondary Outright Pick: Collin Morikawa to win at +2500 or better.

FedEx St. Jude Golfers to Approach Carefully

Scottie Scheffler at +500

Scheffler is clearly the most likely winner. That does not make +500 our preferred wager.

A price that short requires an extraordinary conversion rate even for the best golfer in the field. One cold putting round, one ball in the water or another contender producing a career week can eliminate the ticket.

Scheffler remains highly attractive for placement markets, head-to-head matchups and pools. We simply prefer spreading outright exposure across golfers offering significantly larger returns.

Rory McIlroy at +1200

McIlroy has enough talent to win any tournament he enters and has previously produced high finishes at TPC Southwind.

The concern is timing. He has not competed since The Open Championship and skipped this tournament last season, creating more uncertainty than we want from the second-shortest price on the board.

McIlroy is not a true fade. He is simply absent from the opening betting card because Matsuyama, Morikawa and Kim offer more attractive prices relative to their projected chances.

FedExCup Top-50 Bubble

The most important secondary competition in Memphis is the race to finish inside the top 50 in FedExCup points.

Maverick McNealy begins the tournament in 50th place and therefore holds the final BMW Championship position. Harris English, Max Homa, Sungjae Im and Jordan Spieth begin immediately below the line.

Michael Brennan enters at No. 47 after his Wyndham Championship victory moved him dramatically up the standings. Matt McCarty and Keith Mitchell also begin just above the bubble.

The points situation should not replace normal golf analysis, but it does matter when evaluating Sunday strategy. Golfers outside the projected top 50 may be forced to chase birdies while players comfortably inside can make more conservative decisions.

Final Golf Picks This Week Betting Card

Matsuyama leads our FedEx St. Jude betting card because his +2200 price combines elite ability with proven TPC Southwind winning history.

Kim provides the more aggressive outright position. His recent Scottish Open victory and Wyndham top-five finish show that his game is peaking at the right time, while a price beyond 50-1 offers significant potential return.

Fleetwood is the safer placement play. The no-cut format gives him four guaranteed rounds to finish inside the top 20, while his consistency reduces the need to depend on one unusually hot putting week.

Morikawa joins Matsuyama and Kim on the outright card because TPC Southwind strongly rewards his greatest strength: precise iron play.

Im is the smallest position on the card but offers the largest return. His improving form, Bermuda profile and top-50 urgency make him our preferred longshot.

Our Best Golf Bet: Hideki Matsuyama to win the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship at +2200 or better.

Our Best Value Pick: Tom Kim to win at +5000 or better.

Our Best Placement Bet: Tommy Fleetwood to finish inside the top 20 at -125 or better.

Our Best Longshot: Sungjae Im to win at +9000 or better.

Bettors can follow additional weekly selections through the latest ScoresAndStats golf picks and predictions.

Outright winners, placement wagers, matchups and other golf markets are explained in more detail through the ScoresAndStats golf betting guide.

Current operators and available betting options can also be compared through the latest sportsbook reviews, while tournament news and future previews are available throughout the golf section.

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