After a week away, the UFC is officially back this weekend with UFC on ESPN 68. It’s a slightly underwhelming fight card, but we still get a solid main event between Erin Blanchfield and Maycee Barber. I view it as the appetizer to UFC 316 on June 7.

The two will close out a decent slate of fights on Saturday, May 31st, at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. Several other big names will be on the card, with the likes of Mateusz Gamrot, Dustin Jacoby, and Ketlen Vieira being some of the more compelling draws.

Whether you think this is a card worth watching or not is irrelevant, though. It is still one you can bet on, and there’s some serious edge to be had. Figuring out who to back doesn’t have to be difficult. You can leave it to me as I will check out the latest odds and hand out my top UFC picks for this weekend’s exciting UFC Fight Night event.

Where To Watch UFC on ESPN 68?

This is not a big PPV event, so fans and bettors can tune into ESPN and ESPN+ for all of the UFC Vegas 107 bouts.

When Is UFC on ESPN 68?

This week’s event is on Saturday, May 31st, and starts with the Prelims at 5:00 pm EST on ESPN+.

Where Is UFC on ESPN 68?

If you want to attend UFC on ESPN 68 in person, you can make plans to attend the fights live at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.

UFC on ESPN 68 Odds

Check out the latest UFC Vegas 107 odds for the Main Card, courtesy of the top sports betting sites: 

As things stand, all of these fights are quite palatable for sports bettors. Even if you really like Reese (the second biggest favorite on the main card), I would hear arguments for going hard at him. It all comes down to who you like and how you grade these matchups.

Without digging into it, Gamrot feels like the best favorite to back, while Lopes and Barber look like really intriguing upset picks. You can roll with my main card predictions above, but I’ll dive into each fight and why I like my preferred bet.

If you’d like more assistance with your UFC wagers, be sure to take advantage of the best handicappers in the business before placing any bets.

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UFC on ESPN 68 Predictions For The Main Card

The main card for UFC Vegas 107 begins at 8:00 pm EST on ESPN.

Erin Blanchfield (-250) vs. Maycee Barber (+200)

We have a pretty even match headlining UFC on Vegas 107, even though Erin Blanchfield (13-2) is a solid -250 betting favorite when she takes on Maycee Barber (14-2). The two share similar records, are both in their physical prime, and have similar height and reach.

There’s more; both have good striking ability, both are aggressive and accurate with their takedown offense, and neither has ever been knocked out. All things told, Barber feels like an amazing value at her +200 price.

Of course, that doesn’t necessarily mean she’s a lock to win. However, Barber is in slightly better form. She hasn’t lost since 2021, while her only two defeats have come against in-their-prime Alexa Grasso and Roxanne Modafferi. She’s rattled off five wins since losing to those two ladies, with big wins over Katlyn Cerminara and Amanda Ribas coming most recently.

Overall, Barber has the striking edge, and Blanchfield is probably the better wrestler. However, this is a close call and the value resides with Barber.

Bet: Maycee Barber (+200)

Mateusz Gamrot (-175) vs. Ludovit Klein (+145)

While I will chase the value with the underdog in a few spots this weekend, this won’t be one of them. Mateusz Gamrot (24-3) is my preference here, as the 34-year old has been quite good in the UFC, rebounding from a loss in his debut back in 2020 to go on a 7-2 tear.

His only two losses since that debut defeat have come against dangerous foes in Dan Hooker and Beneil Dairush – and both went the distance. Gamrot has an explosive side (13 wins by stoppage), but one of his major assets is his toughness, as he’s yet to be finished in his career.

He does run into a bit of a problem with the 30-year old Ludovit Klein (23-4) taking him on, of course. Klein is quite versatile and has 17 career finishes, while he is presently riding a four-fight winning streak. It’s worth noting that none of his wins have come against truly elite opponents, however, and he’s also been vulnerable to early finishes (3) in his career.

In the end, Gamrot is simply on par with Klein from a striking perspective, but is way more aggressive with his takedowns. You have a guy who just cannot get punked, either, versus someone who has had his share of mistakes inside the Octagon.

Klein is definitely skilled, explosive, and has youth on his side, but the age gap isn’t all that significant and Gamrot is simply the superior and tougher fighter. 

Bet: Mateusz Gamrot (-175)

Dustin Jacoby (-180) vs. Bruno Lopes (+150)

I don’t love going against Dustin Jacoby (13 KOs), as he is a ruthless fighter with legit explosiveness and powerful striking. He even has a two-inch reach edge in his bout against Bruno Lopes (14-1), while he’s reminded everyone of how quickly he can finish fights.

We saw it his last time out with one punch against Vitor Petrino, and not too long ago he TKO’d Kennedy Nzechukwu. Of course, as nasty as Jacoby can be, he also leaves himself open to a lot of damage. If he isn’t getting flat out finished (4 times in his career), he is at least risking a loss by points.

Dominick Reyes finished him just two fights ago, while his style has contributed to a weak 2-4 mark over his last six fights. He’s favored here, but at age 37 and with a shaky track record of late, backing Jacoby feels like a fairly flimsy prospect.

On the other side is Lopes, who has one career loss. It’s certainly a tad worrisome that it was via KO, but he’s rebounded nicely from it with a three-fight run in the UFC. To this point, Lopes has proven to be the far more versatile fighter, white he possesses every bit of the finishing ability Jacoby offers.

If we’re talking simply striking, I see why Jacoby is favored. He can end this thing with his fists at any point, he inflicts a ton of damage, and he has the reach edge. However, he’s getting up there in age, his overall form is suspect, and Lopes can end this fight in more ways. I’m taking the value with Lopes.

Bet: Bruno Lopes (+150)

Zachary Reese (-290) vs. Dusko Todorivic (+235)

This is an interesting fight between two 31-year old fighters who need a win badly. Neither of these dudes have lit up the UFC. Reese (8-2) is just 2-2 under the UFC banner, while Dusko Todorivic (12-5) has somehow been even worse.

Reese is favored by quite a bit here, and I can see why. Dusko has eaten four KO losses in his young career, and he’s been moving backwards with a shaky 2-5 mark over his last seven bouts. Reese has three-inch advantages in both height and reach, while he also brings superior takedown offense to the table.

Both of these guys can rack up damage with their fists, but the edge goes to Reese. His defense has been a bit better, he’s more aggressive with his takedowns, and his overall form is a bit better. It’s actually far closer than the price indicates, though.

Bet: Zachary Reese (-290)

Billy Goff (-235) vs. Ramiz Brahimaj (+250)

Lastly, we have Billy Goff (9-3), who is stepping in for Oban Elliott, who will miss his scheduled fight due to Visa issues. Goff will take over on short notice and hope to bounce back from a loss he suffered to Trey Waters in May of 2024.

Goff was on a roll prior to that Decision defeat, as he had a nice 7-fight winning streak snapped. He also delivered a TKO win in his official UFC debut, so he will understandably be eager to prove his last loss was a fluke.

Ramiz Brahimaj (11-5) awaits him and this one is a sharp contrast of styles. Goff has obtained all seven of his finishes by KO, while 10 of Ramiz’s victories have come via submission. The 32-year old Brahimaj has not been in great form despite his floor chops, as he’s gone just 5-5 over his last 10 fights.

The inconsistency and lack of versatility are problematic for Brahimaj, while Goff is clearly out to erase his last loss as quickly as possible. I wouldn’t mind hedging my bets with a Ramiz win via submission, but Goff looks like a solid bet here.

Bet: Billy Goff (-235)

UFC on ESPN 68 Preliminary Card Odds

Check out the latest UFC Vegas 107 odds for the Preliminary Card.

The story is the same when looking at the UFC on ESPN 68 odds for the Prelims, although it’s admittedly even better. Basically all of the fights on this card are priced tightly, with Rayanne dos Santos coming in as the only favorite north of -185.

In fact, one fight doesn’t even have a betting favorite. I’d certainly lean Ketlen Vieira’s way if I were setting the prices, but her bout with Macy Chiasson is undeniably tough to call. They both have -110 odds, although some books do lean one way or the other.

Overall, the odds are super appealing here. The favorites are not obscenely priced, and the fights are evenly matched, so the fighters you’re getting plus money for aren’t demanding the same risk as usual.

It all comes down to who you like and who you’re comfortable putting money on. I’ve got picks for you ready to roll, but you can read on for a bit more analysis before committing to them at your favorite MMA sportsbooks.

UFC on ESPN 68 Predictions For The Preliminary Card

The UFC on ESPN 68 kicks off with the Prelims at 5:00 pm EST on ESPN+.

Allan Nascimento (-170) vs. Jafel Filho (+140)

This is a very interesting fight, as Allan Nascimento (20-6) and Jafel Filho (16-3) both love to work the fight to the floor. Nascimento has the edge in striking both in terms of damage inflicted and accuracy, but he also has 14 career submissions.

Filho is much more aggressive with his takedown attempts, and has also managed to grind out 10 wins via submission. With both fighters adept at finishing fights on the ground, my natural inclination is to roll with the guy who has the ability to navigate this bout on the mat and dictate the pace on the feet.

That figures to be Nascimento. Both fighters have strong records and come into this fight in solid form, but his superior striking and mild reach edge (1.5 inches) gives him the nod.

Bet: Allan Nascimento (-170)

Ketlen Vieira (-110) vs. Macy Chiasson (-110)

This is the fight offering the best pure value, as you have two very solid fighters facing off with the exact same betting odds. That naturally suggests this is a toss-up, and I couldn’t agree more, as Ketlen Vieira (14-4) and Macy Chiasson (11-3) are pretty even across the board.

If you’re looking for a glaring edge in height, reach, striking, or takedown offense, you really won’t find it. Both fighters can handle just about any situation, while Vieira really put her ability on display when he forced Kayla Harrison to a Decision in her last match.

Vieira does hold a slight advantage in terms of experience and overall resume, though, as she has wins over Meisha Tate and Holly Holm. Chiasson has had fewer fights and while she’s hung tight against some big names, she lacks those trademark wins that Vieira possesses.

Perhaps one arrives this weekend, but I think the smart money is on Vieira.

Bet: Ketlen Vieira (-110)

Jordan Leavitt (-180) vs. Kurt Holobaugh (+150)

Next up is a fight between Jordan Leavitt (11-3) and Kurt Holobaugh (21-9). Leavitt gives up a lot of experience to his opponent, but he’s also far younger. He’s failed in the face of some big challenges, too, but it’s certainly worth noting that his last two losses were submissions against Chase Hooper and Paddy Pimblett.

Hooper is one of the best wrestlers in the game today, while Paddy the Baddy seems to be proving experts wrong at every turn. None of this means Leavitt is a stud, but he’s otherwise 3-0 in his other three fights over his last five.

On top of that, Holobaugh is a whopping nine years older. He has much more experience, but his career is clearly winding down and he’s gone just 1-2 over his last three fights. He does have a rich finishing history (17 wins by stoppage) and he’s highly versatile, however.

Ultimately, I have a slight lean toward Leavitt. He isn’t a guy I have a ton of confidence in, but he’s in his physical prime and his two losses recently are not shameful in the least. 

Bet: Jordan Leavitt (-180)

Bolaji Oki (-180) vs. MarQuel Mederos (+155)

I am Team Oki this weekend. Bolaji Oki (9-2) is a physical specimen that is strong and explosive. He uses his physicality and athletic traits to dominate his opponent and so far it’s led to five KOs in just 11 fights.

Of course, he can be a bit over-confident at times, and it definitely got him into trouble in his last bout, where the seasoned Chris Duncan made him tap out. Oki is still learning, but things seem to set up nicely for a bounce-back this weekend.

Oki will be facing MarQuel Mederos (10-1), who has a nice record, but is not going to be a real threat to shock Oki with a submission. Both of these guys win with their power, which to me gives Oki the edge.

One big reason is the reach edge, as Oki has a four-inch reach advantage. He also inflicts more damage (5.63 significant strikes landed per minute. Mederos probably will be out to prove he’s the better fighter, but he hasn’t been able to finish anyone in the UFC yet, either.

Bet: Bolaji Oki (-180)

Rayanne dos Santos (-290) vs. Alice Ardelean (+235)

Bettors get a pretty big favorite in Rayanne dos Santos (14-8) despite a middling MMA record. The 29-year old has racked up eight career submission wins, however, and has been a tough out for much of her time inside the Octagon.

She’s lost eight fights, but just two have come via early stoppage and she’s been tough to take out, as her last two defeats went the distance. In fact, since 2021 she’s a solid 7-3 with all of her losses coming by Decision.

She will have the upper hand when she faces Alice Ardelean (9-7), who has almost as many losses and not nearly as many wins. Ardelean is a versatile fighter with eight career wins by stoppage, but none of them have come in the UFC, where she’s just 0-2.

This is a step up for Ardelean, so Rayanne dos Santos is likely to be the aggressor, while the fact that she is four years younger also won’t hurt her case.

Bet: Rayanne dos Santos (-290)

Andreas Gustafsson (-165) vs. Trevin Giles (+135)

The last fight for this event has Andreas Gustafsson (11-2) facing off with Trevin Giles (16-7). Giles has a little more experience, but he’s the underdog here with Gustafsson making his official UFC debut.

The man known as Bane is coming off a big TKO win over Pat Pytlik in Dana White’s Contender Series, and he’s won each of his last three fights by stoppage. He’s 34 already, but Andreas appears to be ready for the big time, and it appears that Trevin Giles will be the sacrificial lamb.

Giles is younger at 32 and has a versatile skill-set, as well as the ability to end fights in a multitude of ways. While true, he’s also been finished six times and he’s in terrible form with three consecutive losses behind him.

I expect Gustafsson to seize his big moment, and a KO win is a pretty good bet.

Bet: Andreas Gustafsson (-165)

The Best UFC Fight Night Picks

The following is our best UFC Fight Night picks for this weekend’s event:

• Maycee Barber (+200)
• Andreas Gustafsson (-165)
• Ketlen Vieira (-110)

There is a ton of value on this betting card and it starts with Maycee Barber. Nothing is guaranteed in MMA betting, but Barber and Erin Blanchfield are so evenly matched it is scary. Despite that, she has a nice +200 price that is too good for me to pass up.

I also really like Andreas Gustafsson. He’s a punishing finisher looking to prove himself in his official UFC debut, and he faces a guy in Trevin Giles who can’t stop losing and is vulnerable to finishes. Yeah, sign me up for that.

The value is also looking great with Ketlen Vieira. She doesn’t have an easy opponent, but between her and Macy Chiasson, she has a bit more experience against top shelf competition and I think that gives her all the edge she needs.

UFC Fon ESPN 68 Card

Check out the updated UFC Fight Night fight card: