New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Picks and Predictions July 29th 2025

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays July 29th 2025

The Tampa Bay Rays are set to play against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on Tuesday, July 29, 2025. The game will start at 7:05 PM and will be broadcast on YES. The weather forecast predicts a very hot evening with a light breeze and a few clouds.

The Rays, managed by Kevin Cash, come into the game with a 54-53 record. They are 9 games behind in the AL East. On the other side, the Yankees, led by Aaron Boone, have a 57-49 record and are 5 games behind in the division. Joe Boyle will start for the Rays, while Max Fried will take the mound for the Yankees.

Rays vs Yankees Key Information

• Sport: Baseball
• Teams: Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees
• Venue: Yankee Stadium in New York, NY
• Date: Tuesday, July 29, 2025
• Betting Odds: Rays Moneyline +171, Yankees Moneyline -204, Rays Runline +1.5 (-120), Yankees Runline -1.5 (+100), Total Over 8.5 (-106), Total Under 8.5 (-114)

The Rays Can Win If…

The Tampa Bay Rays recently defeated the New York Yankees 4-2 in their last game. Drew Rasmussen pitched five solid innings, allowing only two runs. Junior Caminero contributed with a home run and two RBIs, while Josh Lowe and Jonathan Aranda each added two hits to help secure the win.

The Rays have a strong batting lineup, ranking third in batting average at .255 this season. They lead the league in stolen bases with 139, making them a threat on the base paths. With Joe Boyle starting, who has an ERA of 1.42, the Rays have a solid chance to keep the Yankees’ offense in check.

Jonathan Aranda is a key player to watch, boasting a .314 batting average. Junior Caminero leads the team with 27 home runs, providing power in the lineup. With Yandy Díaz and Brandon Lowe also contributing, the Rays have a balanced attack that can challenge any pitching staff.

The Yankees Can Win If…

The New York Yankees are set to take on the Tampa Bay Rays at home. In their last game, they lost 4-2 to the Rays. Jasson Domínguez stood out with two hits and a run, while Ryan McMahon added an RBI.

The Yankees have shown strong offensive capabilities this season. They lead the league with a .451 slugging percentage and 168 home runs. Their ability to hit home runs can be a game-changer in tight situations.

Max Fried will start on the mound for the Yankees. He has an impressive 2.62 ERA and an 11-4 record this season. Fried’s strong pitching gives the Yankees a good chance to control the game from the start.

The Lean

The Yankees are favored with a moneyline of -204. The Rays sit at +171. Given the Yankees’ strong hitting stats, including a top-ranked slugging percentage and home run count, the recommendation is to pick the Yankees to win. The model projects a score of Yankees 5, Rays 3.

The total for the game is set at 8.5. Both teams have solid pitching, with the Yankees having a better batting average against. The model’s projected total is 8 runs. Therefore, the recommendation is to take the under at 8.5 (-114).

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Yankees Count on Max Fried to Rebound in Rematch vs. Rays

The New York Yankees are in search of stability, and they’re turning to their ace Max Fried to provide it. As they continue a crucial four-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays, the Yankees are hoping to see the dominant version of Fried that powered their early-season success.

Fried’s latest outing didn’t go as planned. Coming off a blister issue that sidelined him since July 12, he allowed six runs (four earned) in 5 1/3 innings in a loss to Toronto. It marked his second straight loss—his first consecutive defeats since 2022 with Atlanta.

“Left the lead up early and frankly, just didn’t do my job tonight,” Fried admitted. “Walking guys definitely isn’t going to help. For me, that can’t happen.”

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Despite his recent struggles, Fried (11-4, 2.62 ERA) has been lights-out against Tampa Bay throughout his career. He’s 4-0 with an eye-popping 0.32 ERA across four starts, including two outings earlier this season where he blanked the Rays over 14 2/3 innings.

The Yankees dropped Monday’s series opener 4-2, marking their fourth loss in five games. They managed just six hits, scoring both runs on bases-loaded walks by Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Ryan McMahon. While they had chances, the Yankees went 0-for-7 with runners in scoring position and struck out 10 times.

“We weren’t able to mount enough,” manager Aaron Boone said, acknowledging the missed opportunities.

Tampa Bay, meanwhile, snapped a four-game losing streak with Monday’s win. The Rays improved to 8-18 over their last 26 games despite stranding 11 runners and going 2-for-12 with men in scoring position. Junior Caminero broke out of a slump with a two-run homer, and Josh Lowe delivered the go-ahead single in the fifth inning.

“Right now every hit with guys on base, it matters,” manager Kevin Cash said. “We’ve grinded through it a little bit, haven’t found success, but today we did and the guys are pumped.”

The Rays will send Joe Boyle to the mound for his first start since April. In limited action this season, Boyle has impressed, holding a 1.42 ERA with only three earned runs allowed across five appearances. His only prior start against the Yankees was a mixed bag—three innings, four walks, and two runs allowed while pitching for Oakland earlier this year.

With both teams eyeing playoff contention, Tuesday’s matchup has major implications. Bettors looking for reliable insight should consider recent results of MLB games, which offer valuable context on team form, run production, and pitching trends as the regular season enters its final stretch.

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