Oregon vs Oregon State Picks and Predictions — September 20, 2025
The Oregon Ducks host the Oregon State Beavers in a historic in-state rivalry game Saturday in Eugene. The Ducks (3-0) enter ranked No. 6 in the AP Poll, though they surprisingly dropped two spots despite a 34-14 road win at Northwestern. Oregon State (0-3) continues to struggle but looks for its first victory of the season against a longtime rival. The Ducks have dominated this series recently, winning 14 of the last 17 matchups and rolling 49-14 in last season’s meeting.
Opening odds:
- Spread: Oregon −28.5
- Total (Over/Under): 59.5 points
- Moneyline: Oregon heavy favorite
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Oregon Can Win If…
- The running back depth keeps producing. Even without Noah Whittington, Oregon rolled last week with Jayden Limar, Jordon Davison, and Dierre Hill Jr. each finding the end zone.
- The defense continues forcing turnovers. The Ducks had two interceptions at Northwestern and can pressure Oregon State’s passing attack.
- Bo Nix keeps the offense humming. While the backfield has been banged up, Nix and the Ducks’ receiving corps have shown balance across all three wins.
“This is why we prepare the way we prepare, because there are a lot of guys that can be used … We’ve got a lot of guys that can play winning football,” coach Dan Lanning said.
Oregon State Can Win If…
- Maalik Murphy stays aggressive but efficient. He’s thrown for 896 yards and 6 TDs across three games, the best Beavers QB start since 2014.
- Receivers keep making plays. Oregon State has had five straight games with a 100-yard receiver and 14 different pass-catchers this year.
- The defense limits explosive plays. Oregon’s speed and depth can overwhelm, so Oregon State must avoid giving up quick strikes.
“I feel confident about our players and what they can do … It’s about our guys playing fast and executing the scheme,” coach Trent Bray said.
Key NCAAF Betting Trends
Category | Oregon Ducks | Oregon State Beavers |
---|---|---|
Record | 3-0 (No. 6 AP) | 0-3 |
Last Meeting | Oregon 49-14 (2024) | Lost by 35 last season |
QB Play | Nix efficient, balanced O | Murphy: 896 yds, 6 TD |
Run Game | RB depth scored 3 TD last week | Mockobee 230 yds, 3 TD |
Turnover Edge | 2 INT vs Northwestern | Defense struggling vs big plays |
The Lean
Pick: Oregon −28.5
Projected Final Score: Oregon 45, Oregon State 17
Total Lean: Over 59.5
Reasoning: Oregon has too much depth and firepower on both sides of the ball. Even with Whittington’s status uncertain, the Ducks have proven backs and an opportunistic defense. Oregon State’s passing game is improved with Murphy, but against an elite opponent, it won’t be enough to keep pace. Expect the Ducks to cover and push the total over.
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Best Bet Box
Best Bet Category | Selection |
---|---|
Best Bet | Oregon −28.5 |
Confidence Rating | ★★★★☆ |
Projected Final Score | Oregon 45, Oregon State 17 |
Total Lean | Over 59.5 |