New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers Picks and Predictions September 21st 2025

New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers September 21st 2025

The Pittsburgh Steelers travel to face the New England Patriots in Week 3 of the 2025 NFL season. The game takes place at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts, with kickoff set for Sunday, September 21, at 1:00 PM on CBS. Fans looking for a broader view of the slate can find analysis and betting angles in our NFL Week 3 blog.

Both teams enter the matchup at 1-1. The Steelers have shown strength on the road with a 1-0 away record, while the Patriots aim to bounce back after a home loss earlier this season. The forecast calls for a cool, clear day, offering ideal conditions for football in Foxborough.

Steelers vs Patriots Key Information

• Sport: Football
• Teams: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots
• Venue: Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA USA
• Date: Sunday, September 21, 2025
• Betting Odds: Steelers Moneyline -127, Patriots Moneyline +107, Steelers Spread -1.5 (-114), Patriots Spread +1.5 (-106), Total Over/Under 44.5 (-110)

The Steelers Can Win If…

The Pittsburgh Steelers are looking to bounce back after their recent 31-17 loss to the Seattle Seahawks. In that game, Aaron Rodgers threw for 203 yards with one touchdown, but also had two interceptions. Jaylen Warren led the ground game with 48 rushing yards, while DK Metcalf added a receiving touchdown.

The Steelers have a strong defensive unit, ranked 8th in opponent score and 3rd in passing interceptions last season. Their ability to recover fumbles also stands out, as they led the league in this category. This defensive strength can be a key factor in their upcoming game.

Aaron Rodgers is a top performer with 447 passing yards and five touchdowns in two games this season. His connection with receivers like DK Metcalf and Calvin Austin III can put pressure on the opponent’s defense. With their offensive potential and a defense that can create turnovers, the Steelers have the tools to secure a win.

The Patriots Can Win If…

In their recent victory against the Miami Dolphins, the New England Patriots showed strong offensive and defensive performances. Drake Maye led the team with 230 passing yards and two touchdowns. The defense also stepped up, with Milton Williams recording two sacks, helping the Patriots to a 33-27 win.

The Patriots’ rushing attack has been effective, as seen with their 122 rushing yards against the Dolphins. Rhamondre Stevenson has been a key contributor with 69 rushing yards this season. Their ability to control the ground game can be a deciding factor in their favor.

Drake Maye’s performance has been pivotal, ranking first in the league for passing yards and touchdowns. The Patriots’ defense also ranks high in recovering fumbles, which can create opportunities. With their solid stats and key players performing well, the Patriots have a strong chance to win their upcoming game. secure premium advice with buy picks

Latest Betting Trends

• The Steelers have allowed at least 30 points in each of their first two games, the first time since 2002.
• New England ranks first in the NFL in sacks (9) but last in passing yards allowed (630).
• Pittsburgh has struggled against the run, giving up an average of 149.5 rushing yards per game.
• The Patriots are 1-5 in their last six home games dating back to last season.
• The Steelers are 6-3 against the spread in their last nine road games.

For those betting on the matchup, the latest NFL picks and game results offer valuable context. Serious bettors can also review the best handicappers leaderboard

The Lean

The Steelers are favored by 1.5 points against the Patriots. With Pittsburgh’s strong defense ranked 8th in opponent scoring, they are likely to cover the spread. The model projects the Steelers to win with a score of 24-20. Considering the Patriots’ struggles on offense, ranked 28th in scoring, the Steelers are a solid pick against the spread (ATS).

The total for the game is set at 44.5 points. Both teams have trends leaning towards the over, with the Patriots hitting the over in 7 of their last 9 games. The Steelers have a similar trend, going over in 9 of their last 14. With the model projecting a total score of 44, the over is a reasonable pick given both teams’ tendencies to exceed the set totals.

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Patriots Look to Build Momentum

The New England Patriots (1-1) will host the Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) in Foxborough as both AFC teams look to get above the .500 mark. New England is coming off a 33-27 win over Miami and is trying to secure back-to-back victories for the first time since 2022.

Head coach Mike Vrabel stressed consistency as the key theme for his team’s growth. After splitting their first two games, the Patriots are seeking to establish momentum, making this matchup critical for their early-season outlook. Fans can check updated NFL previews to follow the latest breakdowns.

Steelers Struggling With Run Defense

The biggest challenge for Pittsburgh has been its inability to stop the run. The Steelers gave up 182 yards rushing in their Week 1 win over the Jets, then allowed 117 yards in last Sunday’s 31-17 loss to Seattle.

Coach Mike Tomlin acknowledged that attrition played a role, with his defense wearing down as the game went on. Pittsburgh has already allowed 30-plus points in back-to-back games for the first time since 2002. Bettors tracking NFL scores and odds know that defensive vulnerabilities can significantly swing betting lines.

Key Injury Updates

Both teams enter the game with lengthy injury reports.

For Pittsburgh, cornerbacks Darius Slay (rest) and Joey Porter Jr. (hamstring), linebacker Alex Highsmith (ankle), safety DeShon Elliott (knee), and T.J. Watt (rest) missed practice time. Rookie defensive tackle Derrick Harmon, however, declared himself ready to play after missing the first two games.

New England has its own issues, with defensive end Keion White (illness) sidelined and several others limited, including linebacker K’Lavon Chaisson and cornerback Carlton Davis III. The possible return of Christian Gonzalez, who has been sidelined since training camp, would provide a much-needed boost to a secondary that has already surrendered a league-high 630 passing yards.

For bettors following trends, keeping track of roster updates is critical. Insights from the NFL expert betting guide can help interpret how these injuries impact the matchup.

Defensive Matchups and X-Factors

The spotlight will be on Pittsburgh’s front seven against the Patriots’ run game. If the Steelers cannot control the ground attack, New England may be able to dictate tempo. Conversely, the Patriots’ secondary will be tested if Gonzalez is unavailable, leaving them vulnerable against Pittsburgh’s passing attack.

This clash of strengths and weaknesses will be pivotal. Fans can explore NFL team pages for more details on both franchises heading into Sunday.