Las Vegas Aces vs Indiana Fever Picks and Predictions September 21st 2025

Las Vegas Aces vs Indiana Fever Basketball Sun, Sep 21, 14:00 pm.
Las Vegas Aces
ML: -425
0
0
Indiana Fever
ML: 325
Last Updated on

Aces vs Fever Picks and Predictions — WNBA Semifinals Game 1

The Las Vegas Aces survived a scare in the opening round, edging Seattle 74-73 in a decisive Game 3 on Jackie Young’s last-second tip-in. Now, they return home riding a 17-game winning streak as they open the semifinals against the Indiana Fever on Sunday.

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Las Vegas has reached the semifinals for the seventh straight year, while Indiana is back for the first time since 2015. The Aces are chasing their third championship in four seasons, while the Fever are embracing their underdog role after ousting Atlanta.

The Aces Can Win If…

The Aces lean on A’ja Wilson, who poured in 38 points in the Seattle clincher. Wilson, already named 2025 Defensive Player of the Year and a frontrunner for MVP, has dominated both ends of the floor all season.

Las Vegas thrives on its depth — Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray, and Kelsey Plum can all take over when needed. The Aces also lead the WNBA in scoring at 87.9 points per game and own the best defensive rating in the league.

If Wilson gets consistent help from the supporting cast and Las Vegas controls the pace, their historic run should extend into a commanding Game 1 win.

The Fever Can Win If…

Indiana showed resilience in their first-round upset of Atlanta, winning two straight after losing Game 1. Kelsey Mitchell (20.2 ppg) leads the Fever’s attack, while Aliyah Boston has been a force inside, averaging a double-double in the playoffs.

Veteran Natasha Howard’s championship experience provides leadership for a young group missing Caitlin Clark. While Clark remains sidelined, the Fever still bring balance — all five starters scored double figures in the Game 3 win over Atlanta.

To shock Las Vegas, Indiana must win the rebounding battle and keep Wilson from taking over in isolation sets.


Key WNBA Betting Trends

CategoryAcesFever
Last 10 Games10-07-3
Season Head-to-HeadFever 2-1Aces 1-2
Home Record (2025)17-37-13 (Away)
ATS in Playoffs (2025)1-22-1

The Lean

Model Projection: Aces 87, Fever 75
Best Bet: Aces -9.5
Total Lean: Over 162.5

The Aces nearly stumbled in the first round, but with Wilson locked in, they should control Game 1 at home. Indiana’s balance makes them scrappy, but Las Vegas’ firepower and defensive edge look overwhelming. The Fever may keep it close early, but the Aces are the clear side here.

Check more WNBA previews and picks for updated playoff coverage.


Best Bet Box

Best Bet CategorySelection
Best BetAces -9.5
Confidence Rating★★★★☆
Projected ScoreAces 87, Fever 75
Total LeanOver 162.5