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Yankees vs. Orioles Picks, Predictions, and Odds (Sept. 21, 2025)
The New York Yankees continue their postseason push when they wrap up a four-game series against the Baltimore Orioles on Sunday at Camden Yards.
New York (87-68) is riding momentum after a 6-1 win on Saturday, powered by home runs from Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, who reached his 450th career long ball. The Yankees remain just two games behind Toronto in the AL East with a little over a week left in the season.
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Baltimore (73-82) has been inconsistent, alternating wins and losses over their last six games. While they’ve been eliminated from postseason contention, the Orioles can play spoiler while evaluating young talent like Coby Mayo, who had two hits and drove in the lone run on Saturday.
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Yankees Can Win If…
The Yankees’ bats continue to lead MLB in slugging (.454) and home runs (261). Judge (49 HR) and Stanton (21 HR despite missing over two months) provide thunder in the middle of the order, while the lineup’s .332 OBP (3rd MLB) ensures constant baserunners.
Rookie starter Cam Schlittler (3-3, 3.41 ERA) has kept the Yankees in games, with New York winning five of his last six starts. If Schlittler limits damage early, the Yankees’ power should be enough to secure the series win.
Orioles Can Win If…
Baltimore turns to Kyle Bradish (1-1, 2.45 ERA), who has looked sharp since returning from Tommy John surgery. He has 15 strikeouts in his last two starts (12 IP) and has yet to allow a home run in September.
The Orioles need their bats to support him. With 181 team homers (10th MLB), they have sneaky power. Youngsters like Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday alongside veterans like Ryan Mountcastle must capitalize on any mistakes from Schlittler.
Key MLB Betting Trends
| Trend | Yankees | Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 Games | 7-3 | 5-5 |
| Current Streak | Won 1 | Lost 1 |
| Record vs Spread (Runline) | 80-75 (-0.5 units) | 70-85 (-12.3 units) |
| O/U Record | 74-76-5 | 69-80-6 |
| Home/Away Split | 41-35 on road | 37-39 at home |
| Head-to-Head (2025 Season) | 11-7 | 7-11 |
The Lean
Model Projection: Yankees 5, Orioles 3
- Moneyline: Yankees -134 is playable with the power edge.
- Total: Set at 8.5. Projection is 8 runs, but given Yankees’ recent HR surge, lean Over 8.5 (-106).
Best Bet Box
| Best Bet Category | Selection |
|---|---|
| Best Bet | Yankees ML -134 |
| Confidence Rating | ★★★★☆ |
| Projected Score | Yankees 5, Orioles 3 |
| Total Lean | Over 8.5 (-106) |
