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Las Vegas Aces vs Indiana Fever Betting Preview — Game 3, WNBA Semifinals
The Las Vegas Aces and Indiana Fever head to Indianapolis tied 1–1 in their WNBA semifinal best-of-five series. Game 3 tips off Friday with momentum swinging back to Las Vegas after a dominant 90–68 Game 2 victory.
A’ja Wilson powered the Aces with 25 points, nine rebounds, and five steals, while Chelsea Gray ran the floor with 10 assists. Coach Becky Hammon emphasized composure, saying, “When the pressure starts to escalate, I know they know how to cook under pressure.”
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The Fever, led by coach Stephanie White, are determined to turn the tables at home after getting bullied physically in Game 2. White admitted, “They were much more aggressive and physical defensively and we didn’t counter that with our off-ball actions.”
Line Movement and Odds
- Moneyline: Aces -170, Fever +142
- Spread: Aces -4.5 (-110), Fever +4.5 (-110)
- Total: Over/Under 165.5 (-110)
Oddsmakers opened with Las Vegas as a short road favorite. Public money has leaned toward the Aces after their dominant showing in Game 2, though some sharp bettors are backing Indiana at home, where they beat Vegas twice during the regular season.
“We just got to make sure we don’t lose focus on the defensive end.” — A’ja Wilson
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Matchup Breakdown
Las Vegas Outlook
The Aces’ response in Game 2 showed their championship DNA. Wilson remains the series’ most dominant force, while Gray’s playmaking created balance across the floor. NaLyssa Smith added scoring support, but Las Vegas’ real improvement was defensive intensity, forcing Indiana out of rhythm. The Aces must replicate that aggression without letting foul calls disrupt flow, a point Hammon has stressed. If Wilson and Gray dictate tempo, Las Vegas has the upper hand.
Indiana Outlook
The Fever enter Game 3 confident in their home-court advantage. They went 2–0 against the Aces at Gainbridge Fieldhouse during the regular season, and their crowd should provide a boost. Rookie guard Caitlin Clark has yet to fully impose her will in the series, but her playmaking alongside Kelsey Mitchell could be the difference. For Indiana to regain momentum, they need cleaner offensive execution against Vegas’ pressure and a more physical response on the boards.
Key Battle
Wilson vs. Clark/Mitchell. Wilson’s interior dominance forces Indiana to commit extra bodies defensively, opening lanes for Vegas shooters. Conversely, Clark and Mitchell’s ability to hit threes and break down defenses is Indiana’s best chance to stretch Vegas’ defense. If the Fever find perimeter rhythm, they can flip this series again.
Injuries and Conditions
| Las Vegas Aces | Indiana Fever |
|---|---|
| • No new injuries reported | • No major injuries reported |
| • A’ja Wilson dominating both ends | • Caitlin Clark seeking breakout performance |
| • Chelsea Gray facilitating offense | • Kelsey Mitchell key to spacing attack |
Weather: Indoor game, no outside factors at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
Best Bets and Prediction
The Aces have the experience and star power to ride their momentum, but Indiana’s home edge cannot be overlooked. Expect the Fever to push the pace and shoot better in front of their fans, though Vegas’ defensive adjustments make them the safer play.
- Pick: Aces moneyline (-170)
- Projected Score: Aces 87, Fever 82
- Reasoning: Wilson’s inside dominance and Gray’s floor leadership steady Las Vegas.
- Lean: Over 165.5 — both teams thrive in transition when tempo rises.
- Market Split: ~60% tickets Aces, ~55% money Fever.
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| Category | Detail |
|---|---|
| Best Bet | Aces ML -170 |
| Confidence | ★★★★☆ |
| Projected Score | Aces 87, Fever 82 |
| Total Lean | Over 165.5 |
| Market Split | 60% tickets Aces, 55% money Fever |
Handicappers and Picks
Playoff basketball demands precision, and that’s where expert insights give you an edge. Check the Leaderboard to see which cappers are dominating WNBA action this postseason. For higher conviction, go to Service Plays where top experts post their premium cards.
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