New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Picks and Predictions September 30th 2025

Yankees vs Red Sox Wild Card Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees kick off their season at Yankee Stadium. Both teams are starting fresh with a 0-0 record. The game is set for Tuesday, September 30, 2025, at 6:08 PM and will air on ESPN. Fans can expect a mild evening with a light breeze under broken clouds.

Garrett Crochet will take the mound for the Red Sox. He finished last season with an 18-5 record and a 2.59 ERA. The Yankees will counter with Max Fried, who had a 19-5 record and a 2.86 ERA. Both teams aim to start strong in the AL East, making this game an exciting opener.

Red Sox vs Yankees Key Information

• Sport: Baseball
• Teams: Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
• Venue: Yankee Stadium in New York, NY
• Date: Tuesday, September 30, 2025
• Betting Odds: Red Sox Moneyline +114, Yankees Moneyline -133, Red Sox Runline +1.5 (-200), Yankees Runline -1.5 (+168), Total Over 7.0 (-106), Total Under 7.0 (-114)

The Red Sox Can Win If…

The Boston Red Sox are coming off a 4-3 win against the Detroit Tigers. José De León pitched 6 2/3 innings, allowing three runs and striking out eight. David Hamilton and Masataka Yoshida each hit home runs, contributing to the victory.

Boston’s hitting has been strong this season, with a team batting average of .254, ranking third in the league. They lead the league in doubles with 324, showing their ability to hit for extra bases. Their pitching staff has also performed well, with a team ERA of 3.72, ranking fifth in the league.

Garrett Crochet will start for Boston, boasting an impressive 2.59 ERA and an 18-5 win-loss record. Trevor Story leads the team in home runs with 25 and has 96 RBIs. With strong performances from key players and solid stats, the Red Sox have a good chance to secure another win.

The Yankees Can Win If…

The New York Yankees are on a winning streak, having secured a 3-2 victory against the Baltimore Orioles in their last game. Ben Rice stood out with two home runs, driving in all three runs for the Yankees. Luis Gil pitched five innings, allowing only two runs, which helped the Yankees maintain their lead.

The Yankees have strong stats this season, leading the league in on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Their lineup includes power hitters like Aaron Judge, who has 53 home runs. With Max Fried starting on the mound, the Yankees have a reliable pitcher with a 2.86 ERA, which gives them an edge.

Playing at home, the Yankees have the advantage of familiar surroundings and fan support. Their recent performances at home have been impressive, with consistent wins against both the Orioles and the White Sox. With a solid lineup and a strong pitching staff, the Yankees are well-positioned to continue their winning ways.

The Lean

The Yankees are favored with a moneyline of -133 against the Red Sox at +114. The Yankees have a stronger slugging percentage and lead in home runs this season. With their pitching holding a better batting average against, the model projects a Yankees win with a score of 5-4. The recommendation is to pick the Yankees to win straight up.

The total for the game is set at 7.0 runs. Both teams have strong offensive stats, with the Yankees leading in several categories. However, their pitching also ranks high in key areas. The model projects a combined score of 9 runs. Therefore, the recommendation is to take the over on the total.

The postseason opens with one of baseball’s fiercest rivalries. The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox clash in Game 1 of the AL Wild Card round Tuesday night at Yankee Stadium. New York finished with 94 wins to earn home field, while Boston closed at 89 victories. All three games of the best-of-three will be in the Bronx.

Max Fried and Garrett Crochet headline the matchup. Both were acquired last winter and paid like aces. Fried anchored a rotation that helped New York through Gerrit Cole’s absence. Crochet gave Boston its most dominant strikeout arm since Chris Sale. This stage is new for Crochet, but Fried has October experience from his time in Atlanta. Bettors can review the full MLB previews section for context on how these teams reached this point.

Line Movement and Odds

The Yankees opened as moderate favorites and remain so. New York sits around –165 on the moneyline, with Boston priced at +145. The run line favors Yankees –1.5, while the total is set at 7. Bettors tracking shifts can follow the MLB odds board for updated numbers.

Public money leans to New York, but sharper action has landed on Boston with Crochet on the mound. The total has held steady, reflecting confidence in two front-line lefties controlling Game 1.

Matchup Breakdown

New York Yankees

Fried ended the year 6-0 with a 1.55 ERA in his final seven starts. He was sharp against Boston, posting a 1.96 ERA across three meetings. New York hit .255 against left-handed starters this season, though lineup construction remains fluid. Paul Goldschmidt may get the nod at first base over rookie Ben Rice.

Boston Red Sox

Crochet delivered 18 wins and an MLB-high 255 strikeouts. Against the Yankees he piled up 39 strikeouts in four starts, holding Aaron Judge to two hits in 15 at-bats. Boston’s challenge will be run support, as their offense dipped on the road. More details on recent matchups can be found in MLB game results

Key Battle

Judge vs. Crochet will decide at-bats late in the game. Fried, meanwhile, must keep Alex Bregman quiet, as Bregman owns strong career numbers against him.

Injuries and Conditions

Yankees Injury Report: Gerrit Cole remains sidelined, though the staff stabilized with Fried and Carlos Rodón. See the full Yankees injury report for updates.

Red Sox Injury Report: Lucas Giolito is out with an elbow issue, trimming Boston’s rotation depth. Full details are on the Red Sox injury report

Weather: Forecast calls for clear skies and mild conditions in New York, no weather concerns for bettors.

Best Bets and Prediction

Boston backers gain value with Crochet’s strikeout profile. The Yankees’ bullpen has shown cracks, while Boston’s lineup has battled Fried tough in stretches.

• Projected Score: Yankees 4, Red Sox 3
• Best Bet: Red Sox +1.5
• Lean: Under 7 runs

If you’re building cards, check the Expert Betting Guide for strategy.

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